NEW YORK The probability of a U.S. default has declined to its lowest since January, according to MSCI estimates, as a debt ceiling deal gets closer to the finish line.

The one-year market implied probability of a default as of market close on May 30 stood at 1.3%, the lowest level since January, Andy Sparks, Head of Portfolio Management Research at MSCI, said in a statement on Wednesday.

The default probability - calculated using credit default spreads from S&P Global Market Intelligence - peaked at 4.3% on May 11.

"This probability plunged over the past two days as the market became more convinced that a legislative solution to the debt ceiling crisis is at hand," Sparks said.

The U.S. House of Representatives is due to vote on Wednesday on a bill to lift the government's borrowing cap.

Without congressional approval, a potential default could come early next week.

(Reporting by Davide Barbuscia; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)