Global natural gas supplies remain tight, even with recent reductions in demand, so especially frigid weather this heating season raises the threat of more price swings, the International Energy Agency said.

Europe’s storage sites are nearly full — well ahead of schedule — but “this is no guarantee of stable prices throughout the season,” the agency said in a market report Tuesday. “The risk of price volatility, particularly in the event of a cold winter, is cause for concern.”

The region remains extremely sensitive to supply changes after losing most of its pipeline gas deliveries from Russia last year, which pushed prices to record levels. Recent events — from strikes at liquefied natural gas facilities in Australia to the outbreak of war in the Middle East — have sparked a rally in the benchmark contract.

That’s happening even though last year’s historic energy crisis “ushered in a different era for global gas markets,” according to the report. Europe saw a record reduction in usage, and consumption by mature markets worldwide is forecast to decline by 1% a year in 2022-2026.

China is expected to account for almost half of the total growth in global demand.

Only a substantial increase in global LNG production, concentrated in 2025-2026, will likely ease the market strain, according to the report.