The Oklahoma City Thunder are knocking on the door of contention in the West. Here's what Mark Daigneault is working with as OKC looks to take the next step.
The Oklahoma City Thunder don't tend to draw a national audience, but that could change in the near future. Mark Daigneault has emerged as one of the best young coaches in the NBA and the Thunder look much closer to perennial contention than many expected coming into last season.
OKC finished with the No. 10 seed in the West, sending New Orleans home in the first play-in game before being sent packing by No. 8 seed Minnesota on the doorstep of the postseason. It was a bumming note to end the season on, but the Thunder won 40 games as the NBA's youngest team — with their No. 2 pick and potential franchise pillar missing his entire rookie season to a foot injury.
Now, Chet Holmgren is set to make his NBA debut in August. OKC also added another top-10 pick over the summer in Kentucky's Cason Wallace, a talented defensive guard who provides more valuable connective tissue within one of the league's best backcourts.
OKC is the real deal. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a borderline top-10 player. Josh Giddey, Chet Holmgren, and Jalen Williams all project toward varying levels of NBA stardom, or at least upper-level starterdom. Lu Dort could've been an All-Defensive player last season and nobody would've batted an eye. Wallace was an excellent use of a lottery pick, and OKC's wide pool of young talent harbors plenty of high-upside contributors who could break out at a moment's notice.
Let's dive into the rotations for Mark Daigneault's squad entering 2023-24.
Oklahoma City Thunder starting point guard: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
There's a semantic argument to be made about Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Josh Giddey in the point guard spot, but SGA will generally defend "point guards" (when the assignment doesn't fall to Lu Dort), so he gets the nod here. Giddey will have the ball plenty and probably lead the team in assists, but he's pretty much exclusively guarding two through four.
Gilgeous-Alexander quietly climbed the ladder to NBA superstardom last year. He's right there in the running for the top 10, if not already a member of the exclusive club. NBA stardom is all about creating advantages against your defender and the defense at large. Few do it better and in more ways than SGA.
At 6-foot-6, Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the craftiest ball-handlers in the world. He doesn't have an explosive first step, but he keeps defenders grasping at air by constantly shifting gears and changing speeds. He's the master of funky, off-beat floaters and pull-ups. He averaged 31.4 points and 5.5 assists on 62.6 TS% last season. His at-rim finishing is better than all but a few at his position, and he's also one of the most impactful guard defenders in the NBA, for good measure.
OKC has its star of the future — a player that can genuinely lead the charge for a championship contender one day. With the volume of young talent around SGA on the roster, as well as the mountain of draft picks OKC can trade, it won't take the Thunder long to vault to the top of the league when Sam Presti decides to make it happen.
Primary backup point guard: Cason Wallace
OKC traded up from No. 12 to No. 10 to select Kentucky's Cason Wallace. He's the perfect fit for OKC: an elite guard defender and connective playmaker who doesn't really force the issue or make mistakes. He doesn't have the most explosive game — he can struggle to create separation and to generate his own looks — but he's a steady hand who looks ready to contribute in the NBA from day one.
Wallace's defense really can't be overstated. OKC will have to pay all its young players eventually, but Wallace has the chance to be a standout member of one of the best young cores in the NBA. He will have to scrap for minutes behind SGA, Giddey, and Lu Dort, but he's more than capable of sharing the court with all of them given the nature of OKC's long and tall group.
Other players who could receive minutes at point guard: Vasilije Micic, Tre Mann, Josh Giddey, TyTy Washington Jr.
OKC finally awarded European superstar Vasilije Micic with his first NBA contract. The league has been waiting on Micic for years now; the 29-year-old was originally drafted by the Sixers, but his rights were traded to OKC as part of the Al Horford trade. He's a genuine star overseas, with ample playmaking craft and shooting punch to carve out a role in the NBA. If OKC wasn't so flushed with depth, it would be easier to guarantee minutes for him.
Then there's Tre Mann, who dominated his Summer League minutes for OKC. The third-year guard out of Florida has become something of an afterthought with all the depth on the Thunder's roster — a side effect of acquiring so many picks and hitting on all of them — but he looks the part of an NBA role player. Just maybe not with OKC long term.
Oklahoma City Thunder starting shooting guard: Josh Giddey
Josh Giddey made impressive strides in his sophomore season. The Australian continued to drop dimes; he averaged 6.2 assists per game while forming the most arrhythmic ball-handling duo in the NBA with Gilgeous-Alexander. OKC's backcourt is long, gangly, and always one step ahead of the competition mentally. Giddey's sense of pace and ability to read the floor is special.
What made Giddey's sophomore leap so impressive, however, was that it involved more than picking apart the defense with his passes. He also developed into a potent scorer, creating his own looks on drives to the cup and upping his 3-point percentage by almost six percentage points (26.3 to 32.5). He still has a ways to go with the jumper, but the mere threat of Giddey hitting spot-up 3s opens up opportunities for him to shred defenses as a driver.
The defensive end is the biggest swing area for Giddey as he looks to make the leap from quality starter to bonafide star. At 6-foot-8, he has the length to be disruptive in passing lanes but he's rail-thin with limited lateral quickness. He's most comfortable guarding threes and fours, but he'd do well to add core strength to better handle physical wings. OKC has players who can shoulder difficult perimeter assignments to better optimize Giddey.
Primary backup shooting guard: Isaiah Joe
OKC scooped up Isaiah Joe after the Sixers waived him to save tax dollars. Well, Joe immediately turned into a bankable rotation guard for a play-in team. He was one of the best volume shooters in the NBA, hitting 40.9 percent of his 5.4 three-point attempts in 19.1 minutes per game.
Here's the thing: this was always the probable outcome for Joe, who was a flat-out nutty shooter in college at Arkansas. The Sixers' complete disregard for him always felt like negligence. He's even a better defender than he showed in college, always in the right position and competitive at the point of attack. Joe doesn't create his own looks and he's probably too skinny to be an elite defender, but he's a top-shelf movement shooter who can hold his own on the other end. That's the kind of player every contender needs.
Other players who could receive minutes at shooting guard: Victor Oladipo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace, Tre Mann
The Thunder very quietly reunited with Victor Oladipo over the summer. He's a buyout candidate, but OKC isn't exactly a bottom-feeder and the demand for Oladipo around the league probably isn't very high. That said, he's a good vet for a young locker room and he can still skate by defenders with a better-than-average first step. Maybe he's a sneaky big rotation piece for Daigneault.
Oklahoma City Thunder starting small forward: Lu Dort
The Lu Dort experience is a complicated one. He's deeply lovable — an absolute joy to watch due to his fiery demeanor and starkly physical presence. In a league where defense can occasionally feel secondary, Dort is always competing with 110 percent effort at the point of attack. He fights over screens, throws his weight around, and never takes a possession off. That carries undeniable value.
On the other hand, he's a very shaky offensive player who tends to run extremely hot or extremely cold. He's liable to explode for 27 points in a play-in game, but he will also shoot 38.8 percent for the entire season. Dort's a good enough shooter to stick in the playoffs, but he's a player defenses are comfortable sagging off of and possessions can go awry when he's asked to create off the bounce.
The dichotomy of Dort can be difficult to balance, but OKC has the personnel to accentuate Dort's strengths while also masking his weaknesses. The spacing issues could become problematic next to Giddey in the postseason, but OKC will generally have shooters at every other position with Chet Holmgren taking over the five spot. Plus, with SGA, Giddey, and Jalen Williams handling the bulk of ball-handling and creation duties, Dort really only needs to function as a play-finisher. He's not great at finishing plays right now, but it's not like OKC is asking much of him on offense. He's out there to focus his energies completely on the defensive end.
Primary backup small forward: Jalen Williams
OKC has a lot of versatile athletes. It's not much of a spoiler to say that J-Dub is the starting power forward, but he will also see plenty of run as the nominal three. That's his natural position and the Thunder are swimming with depth in the frontcourt. Expect Josh Giddey to get plenty of run in this spot too when he shares the floor with Gilgeous-Alexander and Wallace.
Other players who could receive minutes at small forward: Josh Giddey, Aaron Wiggins, Ousmane Dieng, Aleksej Pokusevski
Brief aside: the Thunder currently have more than the legally allowed number of players under contract. At some point, cuts are inevitable. That said, there's a ton of functional depth on this roster. Aaron Wiggins is a legitimate wing defender who hit 39.3 percent of his 3s last season. If he doesn't cut it in OKC, another team would be wise to jump in.
Ousmane Dieng was a lottery pick last season — one of three alongside Holmgren and J-Dub. Dieng is certainly the least polished of the bunch, but not many 6-foot-10 athletes flash Dieng's fluidity of movement and ball skills, so he can't be discounted entirely.
Oklahoma City Thunder starting power forward: Jalen Williams
OKC surprised a fair amount of folks with the decision to select Jalen Williams out of Santa Clara with the No. 12 pick in last year's draft. Well, flash forward 13 months and the Thunder look like geniuses. Williams finished second in Rookie of the Year voting after ascending at an astronomic rate over the second half of the season. He looks the part of a future All-Star.
The Thunder will continue to lean heavily on Williams' Swiss Army knife capabilities at the "four" spot. At 6-foot-7, Williams is far more of a traditional wing. That said, Dort is the shortest player in OKC's starting five and simultaneously the strongest. The Thunder are better suited to switching 1-5 than most teams with Holmgren in the mix. Williams will guard all over the floor and he proved himself capable of doing so as a rookie. It's not common to find 20-somethings in their first NBA season who can defend at Williams' level, much less 20-somethings who averaged 14.1 points on 60.1 TS% on the other end.
OKC is the perfect incubation chamber for Williams, an explosive driver and finisher who can attack rotating defenses on the receiving end of passes from two of the NBA's most talented creators. SGA and Giddey will occupy the front of every defender's mind; Williams can cut backdoor, splash open 3s, or split the seams with his thundering downhill forays and acrobatic finishing skill.
Primary backup power forward: Aleksej Pokusevski
Aleksej Pokusevski, the No. 17 pick from the 2020 NBA Draft, was off to a tremendous start last season before he ran headfirst into injury woes. He ended up starting 20 of 35 appearances and spending a decent chunk of his late-season return in the G-League.
It was always going to take Poku longer than your typical first-round pick to make a consistent impact. He's a 7-footer with movement shooting skills, fluid handles, and legitimate shot-blocking upside. He makes a handful of eye-popping plays with his athleticism every night that make you see stars. Then, he'll come down the floor on the next possession and dribble carelessly into a wall of defenders or throw a behind-the-back pass to the opponent. He's a mess, but a beautiful mess with a very clear path to sustainable NBA production. It's a matter of how quickly he can get there and if NBA teams (or, OKC specifically) are patient enough to wait him out.
Poku ended up with season averages of 8.1 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and 1.3 blocks on .434/.365/.629 splits in 20.6 minutes per game. It wasn't always perfect, but it's wise to invest in Poku stock while it's low. Business could be booming when he's 100 percent in year four.
Other players who could receive minutes at power forward: Chet Holmgren, Davis Bertans, Ousmane Dieng
Oklahoma City Thunder starting center: Chet Holmgren
Chet Holmgren was the No. 2 pick last summer and he probably should've been No. 1 (Paolo Banchero's excellent rookie season complicates the argument, but Holmgren was the better prospect). It could take him time to shake off the rust of a year away from the game, but Holmgren should immediately exert a huge positive influence over OKC.
The Thunder's lack of a true center last season was their biggest weakness. There simply wasn't anybody to deter dribble penetration and protect the rim. Holmgren is all of seven feet with a 7-foot-6 wingspan and truly special defensive instincts. He can slide his feet in space, muck up actions with his length, or float off of non-shooters and operate as a help-side defender next to another big.
OKC will probably get another center on the floor with Holmgren on a regular basis for the sake of preservation: he's still extremely skinny and there's definite concern over his ability to hold up in more physical post battles. He added weight over the past year, but even in Summer League he was frequently bumped off his spot, both defensively and on drives to the rim offensively.
That said, Holmgren's impact extends beyond the defensive end. He's a buttery shooter with real upside attacking closeouts, facing up on the perimeter, and creating — both for himself and others — off drives. He's very fluid and he's a fan of running the floor in transition, an attribute Josh Giddey will frequently reward him for. If Holmgren pans out as expected, he could be the piece that pushes OKC from good to great.
Primary backup center: Jaylin Williams
Not to be confused with Jalen Williams. OKC's second-round pick from a year ago was yet another pleasant surprise unearthed by Sam Presti and the front office. He was a year-one starter for a play-in team.
Williams is a bit of an oddball player who probably doesn't project as a starter long-term, but he's a skilled passer for his position who loves to throw his weight around on the interior. He shot a fair amount of 3s last season and he's enough of a positional defender to stay on the floor, even if his lack of height and lateral quickness ultimately caps his ceiling.
Other players who could receive minutes at center: Aleksej Pokusevski, Usman Garuba, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl