NBA Opening Night is Tuesday, Oct. 24, kicking off what could be one of the most wide-open seasons in recent memory. The inner circle of contenders contains at least a half-dozen teams and several more are lurking. We have a once-in-a-generation prospect (Victor Wembanyama) beginning his career while another (LeBron James) enters his 21st season.
The playoff race starts right from Opening Night with really only two teams (the Blazers and Wizards) clearly playing for lottery odds. We also get an brand new In-Season Tournament and what could be a wild trade deadline with unsettled situations for stars like James Harden, Karl-Anthony Towns, Zion Williamson and Pascal Siakam.
From that chaos, FanSided NBA savant Chris Kline and I have done our best to summon win projections for every team that you can actually trust. If history is any guide we'll be as wrong as we are right, but here's how we each see the league's power structure right now.
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Chris Kline's Eastern Conference win projections
- Boston Celtics – 55-27
- Milwaukee Bucks – 54-28
- Cleveland Cavaliers – 52-30
- Philadelphia 76ers – 48-34
- New York Knicks – 46-36
- Miami Heat – 44-38
- Indiana Pacers – 44-38
- Atlanta Hawks – 42-40
- Brooklyn Nets – 41-41
- Toronto Raptors – 38-44
- Chicago Bulls – 38-44
- Orlando Magic – 36-46
- Detroit Pistons – 33-49
- Charlotte Hornets – 30-52
- Washington Wizards – 18-64
Boston and Milwaukee occupy their own tier, but the Cavaliers deserve more credit. Cleveland won 51 games last season with one of the best defenses in the NBA and an explosive offense. There isn't a more consistent perimeter offensive engine in the East than Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell. Factor in another leap from Evan Mobley, and the Cavs are going to be very good.
The Sixers are the big wild card. James Harden's tenure with the franchise is all but done. Still, we know Joel Embiid and scraps are enough to guarantee a solid record as long as he's healthy. From there, it's a steep drop-off. The Knicks and Heat are postseason factors, but just barely (with the understanding that Miami is capable of unholy voodoo when the lights are bright).
Indiana feels like the big potential riser in the East. Tyrese Haliburton is that dude, on the precipice of undisputed top-20 status. Indiana added a premier lob threat in Obi Toppin, a ready-now lottery pick in Jarace Walker, and a splashy impact free agent in Bruce Brown. Add a Bennedict Mathurin leap to the equation, and the Pacers are quite the interesting group.
Toronto and Chicago are stuck in purgatory. The Magic have a ton of pieces and it won't be long until Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner anchor an annual winner, but this probably isn't the year. Detroit, Charlotte, and Washington will be right back in the tank race.
Ian Levy's Eastern Conference win projections
- Boston Celtics – 55-27
- Milwaukee Bucks – 54-28
- Cleveland Cavaliers – 52-30
- New York Knicks – 49-33
- Philadelphia 76ers – 45-37
- Miami Heat – 43-39
- Indiana Pacers – 42-40
- Brooklyn Nets – 40-42
- Orlando Magic – 40-42
- Atlanta Hawks – 39-43
- Chicago Bulls – 35-47
- Toronto Raptors – 34-48
- Detroit Pistons – 30-52
- Charlotte Hornets – 26-56
- Washington Wizards – 20-62
There are a lot of similarities in how Chris and I see the tiers of talent in the Eastern Conference, even if there are some differences in the specific win totals. I think the Heat and 76ers probably take a step back this season with rising talent around them and the chaos of the James Harden situation creating more of a vibes drag in Philadelphia.
It feels weird (for me) to be so optimistic about the Knicks, especially since they didn't make any major offseason moves but they also have the potential for a big in-season upgrades considering the trade pieces they have at their disposal. I also think the Cavs are, generally, underrated considering their postseason meltdown. Their defense will be elite, their offense is meaningfully upgraded and Evan Mobley has unlimited upside.
Moving further down the standings, I'm not quite sure what to do with the Pacers, Nets, Magic and Hawks. I think the Pacers could be the best of that bunch, but a lot depends on how long they keep Buddy Hield and how much they get in a trade return for him. The Nets could have one of the best defenses in the East and anything they get from Ben Simmons (which seems like it could be a lot?) is gravy. I see a big jump for the Magic, maybe too big to be realistic, but they really have an interesting mix of talent and could be a candidate for a big trade during the season. My Hawks projection is more hedging against the potential for a chaotic meltdown.
Chris Kline's Western Conference win projections
- Denver Nuggets – 52-30
- Sacramento Kings – 50-32
- Phoenix Suns – 48-34
- Golden State Warriors – 46-36
- Los Angeles Lakers – 46-36
- OKC Thunder – 44-38
- Memphis Grizzlies – 44-38
- LA Clippers – 42-40
- Dallas Mavericks – 41-41
- Minnesota Timberwolves – 41-41
- New Orleans Pelicans – 38-44
- Utah Jazz – 36-46
- Houston Rockets – 36-46
- Portland Trail Blazers – 24-58
- San Antonio Spurs – 23-59
The Nuggets are the de facto No. 1 favorite in the absurdly loaded West. It's difficult to wrap one's head around the sheer volume of talent in the West this season. The Pelicans have No. 1 offense potential if Zion Williamson is healthy… and it's hard to place them any higher than the 11-seed based on injury concerns and the postseason track records of the teams above them.
Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving with a half-decent supporting cast should win a lot of games, but so should the Grizzlies, the up-and-coming Thunder, the healthy Timberwolves, the recharged Lakers, the potentially Harden-employing Clippers. Not every team can make a leap. It's mathematically impossible. One team has to fall; in this instance, the Grizzlies will be without Ja Morant for a stretch and it feels like some of the shine is lost there.
Phoenix is a significant wild card with all the moving pieces involved from this offseason. It could take a while for the new group to gel under Frank Vogel, but it's hard to imagine the Durant-Booker-Beal trio not winning a bunch of games, health permitting. If there is a "surprise" top-four candidate, it's the Thunder. OKC has a burgeoning MVP candidate in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, a shiny new defensive anchor in Chet Holmgren, and the rapid improvement of both Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams to bank on. In a less crowded conference, it would be far easier to project an OKC breakout with confidence.
Even the bottom-dwellers feel better than your usual tankers. The Rockets made a deliberate pivot toward winning under Ime Udoka, but there's just no chance of such a young group breaking through in this Western Conference. Victor Wembanyama might be a day-one superstar and the Spurs still don't project as more than a 14 or 15-seed. Portland has some dudes, but this year will feature a lot of growing pains based on the strength of competition alone.
Ian Levy's Western Conference win projections
- Phoenix Suns – 54-28
- Sacramento Kings – 52-30
- Denver Nuggets – 51-31
- Golden State Warriors – 50-32
- OKC Thunder – 48-34
- Los Angeles Lakers – 47-35
- Minnesota Timberwolves – 46-36
- LA Clippers – 44-38
- Memphis Grizzlies – 42-40
- Dallas Mavericks – 40-42
- New Orleans Pelicans – 38-44
- San Antonio Spurs – 32-50
- Houston Rockets – 31-51
- Utah Jazz – 30-52
- Portland Trail Blazers – 21-61
I'm not quite sure how the Suns' top-heavy, injury-prone rotation shakes out in the playoffs but I think the upshot is a very strong regular season where their perimeter scorers are able to trade off and keep the pedal to the floor while someone (or two) is having an off night or recovering from an injury.
The Nuggets and Lakers are teams who I think are every bit as dangerous in a playoff series as the Suns but have far less incentive to push during the regular season and will have a bigger drop-off when their most important players are resting or hurt. The Kings have more talent than last season and I don't see any reason why they won't be able to replicate last season's surprising success.
For the Warriors, I'm banking on a boost from Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody, I know fool me once ...
Moving down the standings, I'm not sure what else there is to say about the Thunder and Timberwolves than I believe and I am rooting for the most fun possible outcomes here. The No. 8 through No. 11 teams are a muddle, with injuries and flawed rotations making things hard to predict. If I'm wildly wrong about anyone it's probably going to be a team in this range.
And one more note about the bottom — I think the Spurs are more likely to be the frisky bottom-four team than the Rockets. Their talent is just as impressive and fits better. They have an established culture and a better coach. If anyone in that group ends up pushing for a Play-In berth, I'd put my money on San Antonio.
Chris Kline's championship pick
Denver Nuggets over Milwaukee Bucks
Once it clicks, the Giannis-Dame pairing will be borderline unstoppable. There are serious depth concerns with Milwaukee and Adrian Griffin is a complete unknown, but Antetokounmpo is a two-time MVP and the best player in the conference. Lillard remains an absolute stud.
Still, Denver wins the West again, then the championship. This will be a defining moment in Jokic's career as he topples a true heavy-hitter in the Finals. That Nuggets' offense is a singular force, Jamal Murray relishes the postseason environment, and that team is built for the moment.
Ian Levy's championship pick
Milwaukee Bucks over the Denver Nuggets
What Chris said, but with an alternative ending — Giannis secures his legacy as the defining player of this generation, while Lillard finally gets that ring.