A new poll of Taiwanese voters found the top opposition candidate for president jumped past the ruling party’s hopeful into lead position ahead of January’s election, the latest twist in a drama-filled race.

Ko Wen-je, the Taiwan People’s Party’s nominee, had an approval rating of 31.9% versus 29.2% for Democratic Progressive Party’s Lai Ching-te, according to the poll released Monday by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation.

The opposition Kuomintang’s Hou Yu-ih was third with 23.6%, according to the survey conducted November 19-21. The margin of error for the poll is 2.99%.

The timing of the poll means voters were queried about their preferences after the TPP and KMT, Taiwan’s main opposition parties which favor greater engagement with China, said they intended to form a joint ticket. The survey was conducted too early to capture the reaction to the talks collapsing.

Ko and Hou each officially registered as presidential candidates on Friday, ending any prospect that they might share a ticket. Foxconn Technology Group’s billionaire founder Terry Gou also dropped out of the race the same day.

The collapse of the alliance should improve Lai’s chances at victory by splitting the opposition vote between two candidates. An administration under the DPP, which has sought to strengthen Taiwan’s ties with the US and its allies as a counterweight to China, would further obstruct Chinese President Xi Jinping’s stated goal of bringing Taiwan under Beijing’s control. China claims Taiwan as part of its territory, and while it has pledged to seek peaceful unification, Beijing has also not ruled out the use of force.

Ko’s emergence as the leading candidate in this latest poll, the first time that he’s beat Lai in a survey by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation, underscores how unpredictable the race has been. Positioning himself as an outsider looking to topple the traditional parties, Ko has been especially popular among young and well-educated urban voters. The foundation described him as “a horrible nightmare” for the DPP and KMT.

Although the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation poll is seen as one of the island’s most reliable, it is not the only survey of voters. According to local media reports, Wu Tsu-chia, the head of the online news outlet My-formosa.com said late Sunday that their latest poll showed Lai leading with 31.9%, Hou in second at 30% and Ko at 26%.