Week 4 of the 2023 college football season didn't provide us with any of the upset specials our wretched gambling souls crave. Still, there is no such thing as a boring weekend in college football. Clemson and Florida State went down to the wire in Death Valley. Not to be outdone, Notre Dame's inability to count to 11 on consecutive plays caused them to miss out on maybe beating Ohio State.
Regardless of all that close, but no cigar, we are freaking due, bruh. Looking at all the matchups featuring ranked opponents, I have found five games that I think could be somewhat of those delectable upset specials we pretty much live for. Filling in for the Jesus of South Carolina that is Cody Williams, a Jesus of Suburbia will read from the Bible of None of the Above to give you the truth!
There is nothing wrong with me. This is how I'm supposed to be. In a land of make believe, don't believe in me if you don't want to. But if you trust me like you trust St. Jimmy, you have plenty of time to go to your nearest blood bank, tap the vein and sell your A, B or O for some cold hard cash. If you hate the market or index funds aren't your bag, I have some games for you. I'll make you proud, Cody!
Whatever units of gambling measure you use that are inferior to Buhler Bucks, you can be my guest.
2023 Upset Picks Record: 6-14
Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. For more college football odds, picks and predictions, visit BetSided.
College football upset picks: 5 teams on upset alert in Week 5
5. Texas Longhorns
Opponent: vs. No. 24 Kansas Jayhawks | Time: Saturday, Sept. 30, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC) | Spread: Texas -16.5
Not that long ago, the god-awful monstrosity that was Kansas football beat a Texas team that was most definitely not back and threw a got-dang field goal post into a pond over there in Lawrence. The amount of fish it has provided a humble abode to can never be quantified. What can be quantified is the spread in this ranked Big 12 conference game. No. 3 Texas is laying 16.5 to visit No. 24 Kansas.
Lance Leipold's Jayhawks may be 4-0 and ranked No. 24, but they still have a ways to go to be as culturally significant as Mark Mangino's meatballs of '07. Todd Reesing, eat your heart out. Still, you have to remember two things about this quasi-rivalry series. One, Texas has lost to Kansas far too often recently. Two, we are overdue for a Steve Sarkisian special. And three, Kansas does not suck.
Frankly, Quinn Ewers and company may make this a moot point and beat Jalon Daniels' squad by three touchdowns. However, I think Kansas has an outside shot at an upset special, probably more in the vein of covering the not-so-robust spread. Since both teams are undefeated, you can expect for momentum to be a real thing. Again, these are 18 to 23-year-olds who do not really know any better.
This is not my favorite game for an upset to occur, but it is not that ridiculous for Texas to fall either.
4. Missouri Tigers
Opponent: at Vanderbilt Commodores | Time: Saturday, Sept. 30, 4:00 p.m. ET (SECN) | Spread: Missouri -13.5
Well, what do you know? Eliah Drinkwitz's Missouri Tigers are sneakily 4-0 and ranked No. 23 in the nation, potentially on the verge of getting to 5-0. All that stands in Mizzou's way is the plucky 2-3 Vanderbilt Commodores commanded by one Clark Lea. Is Missouri better than Vanderbilt? I think so, but keep in mind that this game is Nashville and Drinkwitz's squad is still very much an unproven one.
The visiting Tigers will be laying a whopping 13.5 points. I am not saying this spread is too vast, but you need to go with the under here. 55 points are probably not being scored in this mid-afternoon kick in The Music City. So with that in mind, I think it at least serves A.J. Swann and the boys to have a puncher's chance at pulling off the early-season upset in SEC East play. Vanderbilt can defeat teams.
Look. Missouri could probably end up being better than what Florida was last season and what Kentucky's offense was down the stretch. However, you get a big win like this at home if you are Vanderbilt, and maybe you have enough firepower internally to get to 6-6, go bowling and continue to build off a positive somewhat breakthrough season from the year prior. Vanderbilt could get Missouri.
This game will not make your fourth screen in the mid-afternoon window, but keep your eyes peeled.
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Opponent: at No. 17 Duke Blue Devils | Time: Saturday, Sept. 30, 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC) | Spread: Notre Dame -5.5
This is the one that if it were to happen would not shock me at all. However, maybe I am not quite there when it comes to Duke football on multiple big stages in a given month. Mike Elko's Blue Devils essentially curb-stomped Dabo Swinney's too-good-for-the-transfer portal Clemson Tigers in Durham on Labor Day night. He is the real deal as a head coach, Duke's next Steve Spurrier for what you will.
So the No. 17 Blue Devils will be getting 5.5 points at home vs. a Notre Dame Fighting Irish team that could only muster 14 points at home to an Ohio State University defense we weren't all that sure was any good until last Saturday night. That is too many points, and we all know what Sam Hartman does in big moments. He channels his inner Kirk Cousins, and the team he plays for does not like that, man.
For Duke to get to 5-0 and creep inside of the top 15, quarterback Riley Leonard needs to play better. A big performance out of him gets him very much into the ACC Player of the Year conversation, although Jordan Travis and Florida State would beg to differ. Frankly, Notre Dame does not play well in big spots to begin with. So something has to give, right? Either Duke is elite or Notre Dame is not.
If Duke was ranked inside of the top 10, then Notre Dame would have zero chance in this ballgame.
2. LSU Tigers
Opponent: at No. 20 Ole Miss Rebels | Time: Saturday, Sept. 30, 6:00 p.m. ET (ESPN) | Spread: LSU -2.5
For all intents and purposes, this year's Magnolia Bowl is a College Football Playoff elimination game. Brian Kelly's LSU Tigers got the best of Lane Kiffin's Ole Miss Rebels a year ago. That game helped propel LSU to Atlanta and prevented Ole Miss from winning its first division title ... ever! With both SEC West teams having suffered a Power Five loss in September, this feels like a loser-leaves-town match.
No. 13 LSU will be laying 2.5 points to No. 20 Ole Miss at Vaught-Hemingway. The winner of this game could conceivably emerge as the No. 3 team in the SEC after Georgia and whoever emerges as the Dawgs' biggest challenger. However, the loser will have to face an especially critical southeastern media. "Lane's done lost it, PAWL?!" "I told you Brian Kelly ain't one of us. He don't even like po' boys!"
The reasons why I think Ole Miss has a pretty good shot at the slight upset special here are three-fold. One, this is a big rivalry game for both schools. All parties involved will get up for it. Two, this year's installment of the Magnolia Bowl will be in Oxford. That favors the Rebels considerably. And three, Ole Miss is coming off a tough loss to Alabama in Tuscaloosa. They should be ready to play.
The spread feels largely inconsequential, like a pick 'em to me, and I am feeling so Hotty Toddy, y'all!
1. Oregon State
Opponent: vs. No. 10 Utah Utes | Time: Friday, Sept. 29, 9:00 p.m. ET (FS1) | Spread: Oregon State -3.5
And we have now arrived at the game where the line doesn't make any sense to me. That is usually a horrible thing for the betting man, well, because Las Vegas knows something that we just do not. However, the Friday night spectacle in Corvallis has my intrigue. No. 19 Oregon State is laying 3.5 points at home to the visiting No. 10 Utah Utes, a program that has won the last two Pac-12 titles.
While 24-year-old quarterback Cam "Black Smoke" Rising could be making his season debut for the Utes after a ghastly ACL tear in yet another Rose Bowl loss to a Big Ten team for the Utes, we need to stop overlooking how good Kyle Whittingham is as a head coach. Jonathan Smith finally got his shine at his alma mater last year, particularly after the Beavers beat the Oregon Ducks in The Strife Aquatic.
Even though Smith is next, Whittingham is now when it comes to college football coaching prowess out on the West Coast. It is why I expect Utah to be the team to beat in the new Big 12 once they join the league with the other Four Corners Universities next year. Oregon State may have bitten off more than it could chew vs. fellow Pacific Northwest Step Brother Washington State, but this is Utah!
I made a promise to myself that I will stop fading Kyle Whittingham for the time being, so let's go Utes!