Upsets and college football rivalry week go hand-in-hand. One team is vastly superior to their biggest rival? Doesn't matter when these games in this week are being played. Much of what we know is off the table. Having said that, if we look for the Red Flags like always, we can start to see the spots where college football upsets might be brewing.
Whether we're talking about the Big House or a late-November afternoon in Jordan-Hare, among many others, we haven't had the full-blown chaos week just yet. And it would make so much sense for those upsets to come in a flood on rivalry week.
We struck out with our college football upset picks, even if we were close in some spots. Louisville got a scare from Miami while Oregon State pushed Washington for 60 minutes. But we're back at it having correctly predicted 17 ranked teams who lost that week out of 60 picks for the season to this point. Yes, it's not a great winning percentage, but this is a risky proposition!
So let's take the risk one more time and let chaos absolutely reign. These are the college football upset picks for Week 13, the teams on upset alert as they could feel the heat of rivalry week.
2023 Upset Picks Record: 17-43
Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. For more college football odds, picks and predictions, visit BetSided.
5. Oklahoma Sooners
Opponent: TCU | Time: Friday, Nov. 24, Noon ET (FOX) | Spread: OU -9.5
Let me go ahead and address the elephant in the room: No, TCU is not that good. The Horned Frogs have fallen off precipitously from where they were last season. We expected that as forecasting Sonny Dykes' team to be national runners-up again would've been foolish given all they lost. But they come into the season finale against Oklahoma needing a win to become bowl eligible.
That, however, is where we start. Yes, the Sooners should be motivated as they still have a chance to make the Big 12 Championship Game with some help from Oklahoma State and Kansas State (and Texas, to be sure, as well). Is that outside shot, though, as motivational as TCU trying to fight for a bowl berth? I would argue maybe not.
On top of that, we've really seen Oklahoma fall off quite a bit over the past four weeks. That run includes a loss to Kansas, a loss to Oklahoma State, a win over a West Virginia team running out of gas, and barely beating a reeling BYU team last week.
Perhaps the biggest worry is that the Sooners run defense has been abysmal as of late. With TCU starting to see Emani Bailey get comfortable and hit his stride (five rushing scores in the last three games) while Josh Hoover continues to improve as well, this is an OU defense that seems like it could be had.
Granted, TCU's defense might not be good enough to stop Dillon Gabriel and the Sooners offense at its best -- but we've also seen that offense simply not deliver consistently. As such, with all of this going on, Oklahoma is certainly in danger of getting upset.
4. Oregon Ducks
Opponent: 13 Oregon State | Time: Friday, Nov. 24, 8:30 p.m. ET (FOX) | Spread: ORE -13.5
Everyone seems convinced that Oregon's loss to Washington at Husky Stadium earlier in the year, the only blemish on the Ducks' record this season to this point, was nothing more than an outlier. Lookahead lines have Dan Lanning's team favored in a possible rematch with the Huskies in the Pac-12 Championship Game by more than a touchdown.
And yet, I'm not sure why we're convinced that this Oregon team is that good. To be clear, they are obviously quite good. Bo Nix operates this offense like a machine with some elite weapons around him like Troy Franklin and Bucky Irving. Furthermore, that's one of the best offensive lines in the country and the defense, particularly against the pass, has been tremendous as well.
Look who it's been against, though. Oregon has not registered a win over a team currently ranked inside the latest CFP Top 25 rankings this season. The Ducks' best win came against Utah, who just dropped outside of the Top 25 following its fourth loss of the year. Washington was the only ranked foe they've faced then, and they lost.
Now they welcome an Oregon State team to Eugene on Saturday for this heated in-state rivalry. Not having to go to Corvallis is a big win for the Ducks, sure. However, the 13th-ranked Beavers are quite clearly the second-best team that Oregon will have seen this year.
More importantly, the one area where we've seen Oregon show some warning signs defensively has been in the run game, which is Oregon State's bread and butter between an elite O-line with Damien Martinez running behind it. If the Beavers can control this game on the ground and step up defensively as they did last week (albeit in rainy conditions) against Washington, Jonathan Smith's team can pull off the upset.
3. Tulane Green Wave
Opponent: UTSA | Time: Friday, Nov. 24, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC) | Spread: TUL -3.5
For the first time in more than a month, we finally saw the Tulane Green Wave win a game by more than one possession. Sure, it came against an FAU team that has been reeling in the second half of the regular season, but considering that Willie Fritz's team had played against lowly Tulsa and East Carolina in previous weeks and won by a combined five points, winning 24-8 over the Owls was much needed.
But now comes gut-check time. While UTSA-Tulane isn't some storied rivalry, this is a game with a trip to the AAC Championship Game possibly hanging in the balance of this contest. Subsequently, both teams have a ton to play for -- and the Roadrunners have been looking like a far better team throughout November.
Early in the season, UTSA quarterback Frank Harris was banged up and the offense suffered. When he returned, it took the Roadrunners a bit to get their feet under them, which resulted in a 1-3 start with only a 20-13 win over Texas State in their favor. Since then, though, they've gotten this thing humming again under Jeff Traylor, winning seven straight games, scoring at least 34 points in each game and winning all but one by double digits.
Now they come into this game and, even on the road, presenting an awful matchup for Tulane. The Green Wave have been most effective with Michael Pratt throwing the football and not so much in the ground game, but UTSA is far better defending the pass than the run. Conversely, Tulane's pass defense ranks 92nd in EPA per dropback whiel the Roadrunners are a Top 40 team offensively in EPA per dropback.
Put simply, the Roadrunners are just playing better football and are built to take down Tulane. Meep meep, y'all.
2. Alabama Crimson Tide
Opponent: at Auburn | Time: Saturday, Nov. 25, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS) | Spread: ALA -14.5
Based on everything we've seen this season, including Alabama's early-season struggles, this should be a blowout in favor of the Crimson Tide. Auburn has not had much fun in the first year under head coach Hugh Freeze, highlighted most recently by losing to New Mexico State a week ago by three freakin' touchdowns at home.
And yet... this is the Iron Bowl. This is the Iron Bowl at Jordan-Hare Stadium. This is the Iron Bowl at Jordan-Hare when Bama could easily overlook Auburn and be thinking about Georgia in the SEC Championship Game and their College Football Playoff hopes. And that's when madness tends to happen.
I'm not going to lie to you and tell you that there are many numbers that favor Auburn. There aren't. The Tigers defense has been fine but they've struggled to limit explosive plays, which has been the bread-and-butter for Jalen Milroe and the Alabama offense amid their second-half breakout. On top of that, a struggling Payton Thorne-led offense is going to have a hard time by the numbers against an elite defense.
When you look at the Iron Bowl history in Jordan-Hare, though, it's hard to overlook the calamity that's ensued, even when Auburn's been inferior. In 2021, the Tigers finished the season 6-7. But they took Alabama to overtime in a 24-22 loss. In 2019 and 2017, a ranked Auburn team upset a higher-ranked Alabama team. In 2015, they kept it to a 16-point loss despite being vastly outmatched.
On top of all of that, Freeze has a 2-3 record against Nick Saban in his career from his time at Ole Miss. He knows how to close a talent gap and make things close. With all of this in play, even if Alabama is clearly the better team by a country mile, all bets are out the window and upsets are on the table when it's the Iron Bowl at Jordan-Hare.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
Opponent: at 3 Michigan | Time: Saturday, Nov. 25, Noon ET (FOX) | Spread: MICH -3.5
Of course, we have to finish with The Game.
Ohio State and Michigan clash in Ann Arbor on Saturday with, once again, everything on the line. The winner moves on to the Big Ten Championship Game and almost surely the College Football Playoff. The winner, based on how this Playoff race is shaping up, is likely left out of the Top 4 when Selection Sunday rolls around on Dec. 3.
For much of the season, everyone was circling this game as another reckoning for Ryan Day and the Buckeyes. After two straight losses to the Wolverines in this rivalry, we watched Kyle McCord and the offense struggle at times, even with the defense leveling up substantially from a year ago. Meanwhile, Michigan looked to be on a war path.
But then came the sign-stealing scandal and the past two weeks for the Wolverines. Now, there are questions about whether Michigan could possibly be fully focused with Jim Harbaugh removed from the sidelines, with all of the distractions, and perhaps now not having the opposing team's signals.
I don't expect The Game to be a repeat of the past two years by any stretch. Michigan hit one explosive play after another a year ago, which Ohio State's defense might be too improved to allow. However, McCord has still not proven himself and the Wolverines defense remains elite. They can pressure him at an extreme rate and severely limit the Buckeyes. Moreover, I believe J.J. McCarthy is still capable of making plays when it's actually needed, which we'll also see.
Yes, Michigan is favored, but Ohio State has been ranked ahead of their rivals in every iteration of the CFP rankings this year. After Saturday and getting upset on the road by their rivals, though, the Buckeyes won't be able to say that anymore.