Coming into conference championship weekend, there were still eight teams with a conceivable chance of making it into the College Football Playoff bracket. But as we all know, only four can make it, and the Selection Committee has some extremely tough decisions to make on Sunday to determine that Top 4.
Alabama was the biggest chaos-maker for the final College Football Playoff rankings. The No. 8 team in the penultimate CFP Top 25 went into Atlanta and upset the back-to-back national champion Georgia Bulldogs to take the SEC crown and stay alive for the Playoff. But that's where things get tricky.
Texas, a team with a head-to-head win over Alabama in Tuscaloosa, also won its conference in dominant fashion with a blowout Big 12 title game win over Oklahoma State. And to further complicate matters, Washington beat Oregon for the second time on Friday night while Florida State, despite immense injury woes, got past Louisville to win the ACC.
It's a ton of calamity to sort out and the Selection Committee does not have an enviable job. But let's try and project what they'll do with the final College Football Playoff bracket and Top 25 rankings.
Projected Final College Football Playoff rankings: No. 25-21
25. SMU Mustangs
So long, Tulane! Even with starting quarterback Preston Stone out for the AAC Championship Game, SMU went on the road with Kevin Jennings and delivered a gem to top the Green Wave, 26-14. While Jennings had a strong first career start – even with some mistakes – the Mustangs defense was the real star, holding Michael Pratt and Co. to just 269 total yards of offense. They'll fall short of a New Year's Six bid but it's a phenomenal 11-2 finish going into bowl season.
24. Oklahoma State Cowboys
The Pokes didn't have the best of times in JerryWorld on Saturday afternoon as they just watched the Texas offense run by them for 60 minutes. Oklahoma State was deserving of being in the Big 12 Championship Game, but they were just outmatched by the Longhorns. With Ollie Gordon II being limited, the game was in Alan Bowman's hands, but the QB just didn't have enough to even keep it close against Texas.
23. Kansas State Wildcats
Full disclosure, seeing Kansas State at No. 25 in the penultimate College Football Playoff rankings was not at all what I expected… especially after the Wildcats finished the regular season at 8-4 with a loss at home to Iowa State. But it's still a phenomenal year for Chris Klieman's group, though the bowl game could be tough as star quarterback Will Howard has already put his name into the transfer portal, among others.
22. Clemson Tigers
After watching the rockfight between Florida State and Louisville for the ACC Championship Game, you have to think that the iteration of Clemson we saw in November might've been the best team from that conference. Alas, they struggled too often early, so they didn't get their flowers. However, the Tigers do appear to be figuring things out – and Dabo is starting to use the portal! Look at that old dog learning a new trick.
21. Tennessee Volunteers
For my money, Tennessee is not one of the 25 best teams in college football this season. However, these are projections and the Selection Committee continued to insert the Vols into the Top 25, so here we are. Fans in Knoxville should hope that they get a full glimpse of freshman Nico Iamaleava in their bowl game, though, as the Joe Milton experience simply was a bust in comparison to the 2022 campaign. Time to start the new era.
Projected Final College Football Playoff rankings: No. 20-16
20. Iowa Hawkeyes
Shockingly enough, the Iowa offense did not magically appear as it arrived in Indianapolis. Yes, Phil Parker's defense, as it's done all season long, kept the Hawkeyes closer and in the mix than some expected, but this game never felt close. Michigan completely stonewalled Deacon Hill and the offense throughout the game, which seemed to put it out of reach simply by the measure of the Wolverines putting points on the board.
19. Louisville Cardinals
Honestly, I considered dropping Louisville outside of the Top 20. That ultimately felt a bit harsh, but the fact of the matter is that this team, after losing to Kentucky last week, was unable to beat a Florida State team starting its third-string quarterback on Saturday night in the ACC Championship Game. You have to feel great long-term about Jeff Brohm at his alma mater, but this thing has sputtered to a rough finish for the Cardinals.
18. Oregon State Beavers
The vibes in Corvallis right now could definitely be higher. Not only did the Beavers lose their final two games of the regular season when they could've been agents of chaos against Washington and Oregon, but now Jonathan Smith is heading to East Lansing. It's going to be tough for Oregon State to maintain the level of success they've enjoyed lately under Smith, but perhaps Trent Bray, who was promoted from defensive coordinator, can keep pouring in the special sauce.
17. NC State Wolfpack
Who would've thought midway through the season that NC State would be a Top 20 team in college football? All the credit in the world goes to Dave Doeren to deal with a quarterback debacle involving MJ Morris, an offense that was tepid at best early in the year no matter who was under center, and just a ton of adversity. To overcome that to finish 9-3 and ultimately as the second-highest-ranked ACC team is remarkably impressive.
16. Liberty Flames
Welcome to the New Year's Six, Jamey Chadwell! I've been a proponent of Liberty getting more respect than they have been from the Selection Committee for some time to be the highest-ranked Group of 5 team. Finally, it seems like there won't be a choice. The Flames picked up a two-touchdown win over a good New Mexico State team to win the CUSA title and finish 13-0. If they don't end up as the top G5 team, it's a blatant mistake from the committee.
Projected Final College Football Playoff rankings:: No. 15-11
15. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
After Notre Dame lost to Ohio State, it felt like most people just wrote the Irish out of the national conversation in college football. Yet, it was still quite the solid season with Sam Hartman at the helm as a grad transfer, going 9-3 without no losses to an unranked team. After the disaster of 2022, that's definitely progress, but Marcus Freeman will have to find another quarterback to keep things on an upward trajectory in South Bend.
14. Arizona Wildcats
Arizona ended the regular season as one of the hottest teams in college football. After starting 3-3 with losses at Mississippi State (which looks inexplicable now) and in tight ones against Washington and USC, Jedd Fisch's Wildcats won their final six games of the season. Had Oregon lost to Oregon State, they'd have been in the Pac-12 title game. That wasn't meant to be, but they clearly got the right one in Tucson as Arizona can now make waves in the new Big 12 next season.
13. LSU Tigers
When you look at the effort that the likely Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels put forth this season, one has to wonder what might've been for LSU if they'd had any semblance of a defense this season. In the end, though, the defense was abysmal more often than not, which led to a 9-3 season overall. Despite that, it doesn't feel like the Tigers are going anywhere with the way Brian Kelly has this thing going, even with obvious improvements that need to be made.
12. Oklahoma Sooners
If we were talking solely about the two best teams in the Big 12, then Oklahoma probably should've been having a rematch with Texas on Saturday afternoon in Arlington. But a loss in Bedlam ultimately sealed the Sooners' fate, so they were left watching at home. Now, Brent Venables' team is on the fringe of a New Year's Six bid, but might be left out and playing in a slightly lesser game for the postseason.
11. Ole Miss Rebels
On one hand, Ole Miss shouldn't be one to complain about 10-win seasons. The Rebels finished 10-2 for just the second time in program history, both coming under Lane Kiffin. He has this thing humming in Oxford. However, it's only natural to want more and Ole Miss lost its two biggest games of the year, falling at Alabama and at Georgia. How they close that gap now becomes harder to ascertain as the SEC only gets tougher with Texas and Oklahoma on the way.
Projected Final College Football Playoff rankings: No. 10-9
10. Penn State Nittany Lions
If this were next year, we'd be having a long debate about whether or not Penn State deserves a spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff over the likes of Ole Miss, Oklahoma, and LSU. But it's the last of the four-team variety for the CFP this year, and the Nittany Lions' chances went out the door in Week 11 with a decisive loss to Michigan.
The story for James Franklin has, unfortunately, been the same in Happy Valley for quite some time. Penn State is clearly one of the better teams in the country, but they are still a step behind the top contenders in the Big Ten in Michigan and Ohio State. That's why the hypothetical 12-team debate would be fascinating as the Nittany Lions' lone ranked win came over… Iowa.
That's not exactly a fantastic resumé but Penn State could keep building on this, especially after some offensive changes that we could see them benefit from in the 2023 season.
9. Missouri Tigers
Despite all of the SEC drama that we saw take place in Atlanta on Saturday, the Missouri Tigers were free of it, probably much to the chagrin of the team and head coach Eli Drinkwitz. Having said that, you have to give Mizzou a world of credit for the season they put together.
Throughout the year, the Tigers ostensibly proved that they were the third-best team in the conference. What was more impressive is that they did this behind a monster offensive effort after the script was flipped a year ago. With that kind of adjustment in just one year's time – the defense took a big step back in 2023 from 2022 – you have to feel great about the future in Columbia under Drinkwitz.
Missouri is surely locked into a New Year's Six bid at this point, though Georgia will likely take the Orange Bowl bid from them if the Dawgs don't make the Playoff. Even still, that's something Tigers fans can certainly hand their hats on moving forward.
Projected Final College Football Playoff rankings: No. 8-7
8. Oregon Ducks
So much for the advanced metrics saying the Ducks were the best team in the Pac-12. All that matters is they now finish the season at 11-2 with both losses coming to Washington. And that means they have no shot at making it into the Playoff.
There's no question that Dan Lanning's Oregon team looked far more dominant throughout the second half of the regular season than the rival Huskies. But one thing it often seemed that people were overlooking was a substantially weaker (and less taxing) schedule than Washington played. When they met for the rematch on Friday night, though, it showed.
The Huskies simply looked more battle-tested and ready. Bo Nix didn't deliver and likely cost himself the Heisman Trophy with a pedestrian performance. As many have said, the numbers can tell you a lot, but what happens on the field tells you more. Sorry to say it, Ducks fans, but the story on the field was that Oregon was just a step behind the Huskies.
7. Ohio State Buckeyes
If there was any hope of Ohio State making it into the College Football Playoff, the Buckeyes needed chaos to transpire on conference championship weekend – but just the right amount of chaos… not too much.
Unfortunately, the right breaks just didn't fall the way of Ryan Day's team. They needed Georgia to take care of Alabama, which they didn't. The Buckeyes needed Texas to get upset by Oklahoma State, but the Longhorns blew them out to capture the Big 12 title. That pretty much sealed the fate that OSU is heading to the New Year's Six and not the CFP.
Ohio State clearly proved they are one of the 10 best teams in the country, but there are still questions moving forward. Do the Buckeyes need to replace Kyle McCord in the transfer portal? Will there be coaching changes? It's a big offseason as the Buckeyes look to figure out how to get back to the mountaintop.
Projected Final College Football Playoff rankings: No. 6-5
6. Georgia Bulldogs
The Georgia Bulldogs' 29-game winning streak has come to a close after a loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship Game. And with that, Kirby Smart's bid to lead his team to a 3-peat of national championships might be dead as well.
Georgia suffered from a number of self-inflicted wounds throughout this game, not to mention some dubious officiating from the crew in Atlanta as well. But Smart has never been one for those types of excuses and the fact of the matter is that the Dawgs didn't get the job done.
There will be arguments that Georgia still deserves to be in the Playoff and, objectively, if we're looking at simply the four best teams, I'd agree. But in a world where we're talking about most deserving teams, there are too many other deserving teams for the Dawgs to ultimately make it into the final Top 4 and the College Football Playoff bracket this year.
5. Florida State Seminoles
This isn't fair. I fully believe that Florida State deserves on its merit from the 2023 season, wherein the Seminoles went a perfect 12-0 in the regular season, battled through the Jordan Travis injury and then Tate Rodemaker's injury to get past Louisville and win the ACC with a perfect record, to be in the College Football Playoff.
Having said that, it feels like they are set up to get royally screwed in the CFP field. Boo Corrigan has talked about the "four best teams" for a while now. With the QB injuries, FSU feels like it's ripe to get jumped by both Alabama and Texas and left out of the Playoff field because the Committee will deem that those two teams are better. That's probably not wrong, but the games have to matter, right?
Leaving FSU out of the Playoff is another reason why many are looking forward to the 12-team format coming next year. What's worse for the Noles is that being left out of the Top 4 likely sets them up for an Orange Bowl date with a pissed-off Georgia team.
Projected Final College Football Playoff rankings: No. 4-3
4. Alabama Crimson Tide
Remember when everyone had written off Alabama as dead in the water after the Crimson Tide lost to Texas, benched Jalen Milroe, and then played an exceedingly ugly game in a win over South Florida. That all feels like a lifetime ago now that Nick Saban's team is an SEC Champion once again.
Alabama handed Georgia its first loss in its last 30 games, despite not even playing all that well. The Dawgs outgained them and Milroe didn't have his finest performance by a long shot. But when it came to taking advantage of opportunities to score or get stops, the Crimson Tide got the job done.
The big question: Will the Selection Committee jump Alabama ahead of undefeated Florida State with FSU's quarterback injuries? At the end of the day, I think they will, using the "four best teams" argument. It's unfair to the Seminoles, without question, but it's probably best for the Playoff (and morale in Tallahassee to not have to watch a Jordan Travis-less team in the CFP).
3. Texas Longhorns
It turns out, what we saw from the Texas Longhorns in the regular-season finale against Texas Tech was Steve Sarkisian pushing his team into death machine mode. The latest victim was the Oklahoma State Cowboys in the Big 12 Championship Game.
This was an absolute fireworks show from Quinn Ewers and the Texas offense. While the defense shut down Ollie Gordon II and forced several Alan Bowman mistakes, they didn't honestly need to. Ewers nearly set a Big 12 title game record for passing in the first half, ending the day for 452 yards and four touchdowns. He was dominant, as were the weapons around him, and the Longhorns cruised to a 49-21 win.
With Georgia losing to Alabama, that now seems to lock Texas into a College Football Playoff berth. Putting the Crimson Tide ahead of the Longhorns when Sark's group won that head-to-head on the road in Tuscaloosa would be criminal. Can we now finally say that Texas is back? If they aren't, it's the closest this program has been in a long, long time.
Projected Final College Football Playoff rankings: No. 2-1
2. Washington Huskies
Almost from the time that the final whistle blew many weeks ago with Washington beating Oregon in their regular-season matchup, it's felt like everyone was disrespecting the Huskies by saying that the Ducks were the better team. Furthermore, Oregon came into the Pac-12 Championship Game as nearly double-digit favorites despite the previous result.
But the dust has settled and Washington is 13-0, 2-0 against Oregon, and the Pac-12 champions moving on into the College Football Playoff.
Washington thoroughly dominated this game, outgaining the Ducks by by 118 yards on the night, forcing Bo Nix into one of the worst games of his time in Eugene, and simply making the plays behind Michael Penix Jr. and Dillon Johnson on offense to get the job done. Again, the doubters for the Huskies were plentiful, but this team earned its keep as a battle-tested and deserving champ that is, without question, a deserving CFP contender.
1. Michigan Wolverines
Not that it was a shock to anyone as Jim Harbaugh returned to the sidelines on Saturday night in Indianapolis to coach a Michigan team that was more than a 20-point favorite against Iowa, but the Wolverines completely dominated the action.
Make no mistake, this was not a stellar overall performance from the Michigan offense. J.J. McCarthy completed a lot of throws and was efficient in terms of completion rate, but the production wasn't there. Blake Corum also scored twice to become the program's all-time leader in rushing touchdowns, but was inefficient overall with his touches. Yet, the defense completely suffocated Iowa's offense throughout the night to pick up the win.
With the 13-0 season, Michigan is going to be the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff. But now the big task for the Wolverines and, more specifically, Harbaugh will be to pick up his first win in the CFP semifinals.