Gabon’s president, Ali Bongo, is expected to win reelection on Saturday, extending the 56-year stranglehold his family has had on political power in the oil-producing central African nation.
His bid for a third term comes just months after the constitution was changed to make provision for the president to be elected in a single round, a move that could favor the incumbent because it splits the opposition vote. A new system also obliges voters to choose their preferred leader and lawmakers from the same party.
Bongo, 64, is squaring off against 18 rivals, with the biggest challenge coming from Albert Ondo Ossa, 69, an economics professor and former higher education minister who was nominated by the opposition coalition known as Alternance 2023.
“Bongo is likely to win comfortably due to his control over the electoral process and the opposition alliance’s high-risk strategy of picking a left-field candidate,” Maja Bovcon, an Africa analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, said in an emailed note.
The vote comes as Gabon seeks to reduce the $22 billion economy’s reliance on oil, which funds more than half of the national budget. The government is betting that selling carbon offsets by preserving its forests can help make up for lost revenue.
“If the president were to change, I’m not convinced that the model has got deep enough roots yet to be fully sustainable,” Lee White, Bongo’s environment minister, said in a March interview.
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Gabon’s abundant oil, timber and manganese haven’t translated into better living standards –– one third of its 2.2 million people live below the poverty line, World Bank data show.
Bongo studied law in France before going into politics and was elected president in 2009, four months after the death of his father, Omar Bongo, who had held power since 1967. He secured a second seven-year term in 2016 elections, defeating opposition leader Jean Ping in the closest election in the nation’s history.
Violence erupted after the results were announced, with protesters burning down shops and the parliament building. The government said seven people died in the unrest while the opposition accused the security forces of killing more than 50 of its supporters. Ping is boycotting Saturday’s vote.
Bongo was absent from Gabon in 2018 and 2019 after suffering a stroke while attending a conference in Saudi Arabia. He returned months later following a failed coup attempt by soldiers who questioned his fitness to rule.
Over recent years, Bongo has spearheaded sweeping reforms to cement his grip, concentrating power in the presidency and ensuring the head of state retains influence over national policies, even when the opposition holds a parliamentary majority.
In April, the parliament voted to reduce presidential terms to five years. The country has no term limits.