Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler are heavy favorites at Oak Hill, but which 2023 PGA Championship sleepers could stun us and win the Wanamaker Trophy?
The favorites to win the 2023 PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club shouldn't shock a single soul who has been watching golf over the past year. Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler are both installed as favorites, each with +750 odds to win. Behind them is a familiar cast that includes Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Brooks Koepka, Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas and more.
Thomas, of course, is the defending champion at this major championship, winning the PGA Championship a year ago at Southern Hills. Entering that tournament, he was one of the favorites with the fourth-best odds entering the week. But PGA Championship sleepers have been live in recent years.
Prior to Thomas' win, it was Phil Mickelson who won at Kiawah in 2021 at 50 years old, entering the tournament with 300/1 odds. The year before that, Collin Morikawa broke onto the major scene to win at TPC Harding Park after entering with +3500 odds, but he felt like more of a dark horse than that.
So as we head to Oak Hill, a long Par-70 where long-hitting, positional golf will be key and where we previously saw more PGA Championship sleepers pop up and hoist the Wanamaker Trophy in Jason Dufner and Shaun Micheel, who are the dark horses that are live to contend and possibly win? We have five players who fit the bill.
Note: All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. For more betting content, check out BetSided.
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5. Adam Scott (+7500)
A week ago at TPC Craig Ranch, admittedly an entirely different golf course than the one they'll be playing at Oak Hill, Adam Scott appeared to be trending perfectly for the second major of the year as he finished strong on Sunday to come in at T8, which followed up a T5 at the Wells Fargo.
The one thing that worries me about Scott this week is his overall approach numbers have been somewhat pedestrian over the last 12 rounds gaining just 0.13 weighted strokes. But they have been trending up in the last two starts and, more importantly, he ranks eighth on the PGA Tour in proximity on approaches from 200+ yards away, a key metric on the long Par-70 course, and has been lethal with his short game recently.
Scott has missed the cut in the PGA Championship the last two years but this course fit and his recent form make this number way too long. So if we're talking about dark horses, this has to be one of them at these odds.
4. Gary Woodland (+10000)
Obviously when you see a major winner like Gary Woodland at 100/1, you have to be a little intrigued with his value as a sleeper. But it gets even better when you start to look at some of the metrics for handicapping this year's PGA Championship.
At a course where length and ball striking are going to be vital, Woodland fits the bill averaging 313+ off the tee with solid accuracy and overall gaining more than 2.5 weighted strokes with his ball striking over the last 12 rounds. Moreover, he's third on the PGA Tour this season in proximity from 200+ yards out The issues, of course, has been the short game, the putter specifically.
My stance has long been, though, that putting can be so volatile that you can't
3. Taylor Moore (+16000)
Taylor Moore captured his first PGA Tour victory of his career earlier in the year at the Valspar and that clinched his first appearance in a major ever at The Masters. He showed up solidly with a made cut and T39 finish. Overall, though, his form is too good to ignore.
Over the last 20 rounds, Moore has gained 1.27 weighted strokes with his ball striking while being red-hot with the putter, gaining 1.36 weighted strokes. His around-the-green metrics aren't great, losing more than 0.4 strokes over that span, but the rest of his game is in great shape for success at this course.
Moore recently finished T11 at the RBC Heritage and T27 at the Wells Fargo, highlighting that he remains in phenomenal form. Lack of major experience is obviously a concern but if you want long odds on a player who is simply putting good golf on the course each time out, then look no further than the 29-year-old.
2. Nicolai Hojgaard (+19000)
We've started to see Nicolai Hojgaard a bit more stateside over the past few months and, though the results in relatively weak non-designated fields have been mediocre, the fact of the matter is that the young Dane has all kinds of game and the ability to pop, which we've seen on the DP World Tour time and again.
Hojgaard is another player who wins with his ball striking, gaining just shy of 1.0 weighted strokes over his last 20 rounds. However, he's not a negative with his short game either around the green or with the putter, gaining slightly in both of those metrics as well.
While the Danish twin's highs haven't been on the level as some of the others on this list, the talent is up there with anyone. Given that he's been in relatively good form, this number makes him way too deep of a sleeper to not think about with how good of a player he is.
1. Hayden Buckley (+28000)
How in the world Hayden Buckley has ended up at 280/1 is beyond me.
Yes, his most recent finish was T43 at the Wells Fargo but prior to that, his previous two stroke play starts were a T5 at RBC Heritage and T10 at the Valero. And it's all been done with elite ball striking, gaining a ridiculous 1.97 weighted strokes on off-the-tee plus approach over his last 20 rounds. And while the around-the-green play has been a problem, he's also been a slight gainer with the putter too.
Buckley has really started to peak with his ball striking. He's another guy with a lack of major championship experience, but this setup at Oak Hill appears ready to reward players who simply hit the ball well and to the right spots. Even with some concerns around the greens, there's too much to like about his form coming in to not think he's able to pop.
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