Oil was little changed as the second half kicked off, with traders focused on challenges to demand and a complex supply outlook.

Brent crude held above $75 a barrel after capping a string of four quarterly losses last week, the worst run for the global benchmark in data going back more than three decades. So far this year, prices have retreated by more than 12% as China’s recovery lost steam, traders feared a potential recession in the US, and robust exports from Russia and Iran kept supplies ample.

The third quarter is regarded by many market watchers as a critical period during which the physical market could tighten, despite the soft opening half. Saudi Arabia, a leader of OPEC+, which groups the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, is expected to extend a unilateral 1 million barrel-a-day output cut by another month in August, a Bloomberg survey showed.

In the US, the Department of Energy plans to solicit more oil purchases this week as part of a drive to replenish the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which was drawn down last year amid the market turmoil following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The US previously said it would buy 12 million barrels to help refill the reserves.

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