There is nothing like the final weeks of the National Women's Soccer League's regular season. When you think you know the outcome, something completely different becomes the reality. Five points separate sixth position from the current top-seeded Portland Thorns on 29 points.
Mike Norris' Thorns may be leading the race for the NWSL Shield after just missing out last season, but last week raised even more questions after Sophia Smith went down. In other women's football leagues around the world like the Women's Super League, the title race is between three teams by the sixth week of the campaign. That is not the case in the NWSL. Week 18 features a top-four showdown and a road test for the league's top side. There are only going to continue to be shakeups until match week 22 comes to a close. Six spots. Five weeks. Buckle up, and be prepared for the unexpected.
Here are three storylines that every fan should keep in the back of their minds before the week kicks off.
Storylines heading into week 18 of the NWSL schedule:
3. Will NJ/NY Gotham FC remain unbeaten vs. Courage or will North Carolina continue home dominance?
Two of the league's top-three defenses meet on Saturday night in Cary, North Carolina. Sean Nahas' side is winless in its three league games, and Gotham is not the side he wants to see as he aims to break this streak. The home team is going to have to do it without USWNT international Emily Fox flying down the left flank with her being given a red card last week against Chicago Red Stars. Mille Gejl is the only player who has managed to find the back of the net for NC against this New Jersey/New York side this campaign.
In three matches across all competitions, Juan Carlos Amorós' Gotham FC is unbeaten, coming out on top in two of them. In the last league fixture back in April, Lynn Williams netted an 80' goal to seal a narrow 1-0 victory at home for the northeast outfit. On the other end of the spectrum, NC has its mind set on extending its home unbeaten run to an astounding 11 contests.
A single point separates the two clubs in the table, and with just a few weeks left, this could have a significant impact on potential playoff seeding. In the Challenge Cup last time out against Gotham, the Courage dominated possession, owning 64 percent of the ball. The only issue was the team only mustered two shots on goal en route to a two-goal defeat in early August. Nahas is one of the most intelligent coaches in the league. If anyone can come up with creative solutions, it is going to be him.
2. How does OL Reign respond at home vs. Orlando Pride?
After falling conceding a late goal to the Wave at home in week 17, Seb Hines' Orlando Pride travel to Seattle for another chance to move into the postseason picture. This is when Orlando wants to see OL Reign. When it is down. Laura Harvey's Reign are struggling to tread water at the moment, having found the back of the net once in the last three league games combined.
It is essentially the same situation as last week for the Pride, except away from Exploria Stadium. A win moves the club into sixth, but a loss leaves it susceptible to sinking further down the table.
Harvey's USWNT stars showed plenty of quality against Angel City last week. Rose Lavelle, and Sofia Huerta combined for six successful take-on attempts, and 15 progressive passes in that 2-1 defeat.
The team just needs to take advantage of the chances that do come its way. It was the fifth straight game in which the Reign fell short of its expected goals total.
Consistent finishing has always been at the forefront of the Reign's issues in the past. Three shots on target from 13 total is not going to get the job done. Lavelle's return brings hope to the team, but another slip-up, especially this week could mean looking up at the playoff picture instead of being on the field.
1. How will Sophia Smith's knee injury impact Portland?
Everyone knows the Thorns possess one of the deepest teams in the league. All that gets thrown out the window when the defending league MVP Smith is forced off the pitch due to an injury. In last weekend's meeting with Mark Parson's Washington Spirit, the USWNT star was taken off before halftime. She was seen later throughout the match in crutches on the sidelines. She was later reported by the club itself to have suffered a mild MCL sprain, leaving her status "week-to-week" as of now. Somehow Norris is going to have to maintain this top seed without a player that is second in expected goals per 90 minutes in the NWSL.
Even with Hannah Belfort and Morgan Weaver filling in the cracks in the frontline, there is nobody in this league that can replace Smith's attacking prowess. Those two have combined for 17 goal contributions across all competitions this season.
Not matter how you slice it, Smith changes games in the blink of an eye. Weaver, the league leader in non-penalty expected goals plus assisted goals has an opportunity to keep her side afloat before the club's superstar returns. A trip to Kentucky awaits Portland in week 18. Katie Lund and Racing held off Gotham last week to a point away from home. Seeing how the Thorns come out of the gate in the first 10 to 15 minutes is going to be interesting without Smith causing early havoc up top.
Week 18 in the NWSL begins on Friday on Paramount+ when Angel City head to the mid-west to take on Kansas City Current at 8:00 p.m. EST.