The NHL has more stars than ever before, and that will make this year's Hart Trophy race extremely competitive. The first week of the 2023-24 NHL season has been full of surprises, such as reigning MVP Connor McDavid getting shut down by the Vancouver Canucks not once, but twice. Games like those will open up the opportunity to win the Hart Trophy for a slew of other players.
Of course, it's only been two games for most teams in the league, but from this small sample size we can get a glimpse of which players might be pushing to challenge for this year's Hart. First, we'll start with the best of the rest — players with a history of competing for the Hart Trophy (or winning it) but are on the outside looking in on our way-too-early rankings.
10. Cale Makar, RD, Colorado Avalanche
9. Leon Draisaitl, C, Edmonton Oilers
8. Mikko Rantanen, RW, Colorado Avalanche
7. Matthew Tkachuk, LW, Florida Panthers
6. Nikita Kucherov, RW, Tampa Bay Lightning
And the top 5 candidates for the Hart Trophy:
Boston Bruins right wing David Pastrnak was squarely in the MVP conversation last year, finishing in second place in Hart Trophy voting to none other than Connor McDavid. Many felt that Pastrnak had a legitimate case to pry the coveted award from McDavid, but the latter received 99.54 percent of first-place votes.
After all, it depends on what side of the 'most valuable' conversation you're on — there's no doubt McDavid is the best player in the NHL, but is he the most valuable with another MVP candidate like Leon Draisaitl on his team? If the answer is no, Pastrnak's argument just got stronger.
The 27-year-old returns to Boston in 2023 without longtime Bruins centers Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci, and now he'll have to show just how valuable he is. If Pastrnak fails to score at a rate similar to last season, the supporting cast argument might end up working against him anyway. For now, the 60-goal scorer still firmly remains in the Hart Trophy conversation thanks to his strong start to the season.
McDavid only in fourth place after winning twice in the last three seasons? This is why these are way-too-early MVP rankings, but it hasn't all been rainbows and flowers for the Edmonton Oilers so far. Through two games, they're 0-2-0 and have been out-scored 12-4 by an injured, shallow Vancouver team.
McDavid's squad was defeated twice at the hands of the Canucks in the span of a week, and the bottom line is that they need to win. Score as many points as he'd like, the future Hockey Hall of Famer can't be considered the 'most valuable' if the Oilers continue to flounder against weaker teams, even if it's no fault of his own.
McDavid is still over a point-per-game to start the season, and his individual performances and past precedent will keep him alive in this conversation all season long, provided he remains healthy. The 26-year-old garnered nearly all of the first-place votes last year, and it's unlikely he loses the majority of his Hart voters - for now.
The New Jersey Devils took several steps forward in the 2022-23 season, and that was largely thanks to Jack Hughes' highly-anticipated breakout season. The 22-year-old set career-highs in goals (43), assists (56) and points (99), and finished the season with only three penalties taken in 78 games.
With an improved supporting cast that includes brother Luke Hughes, an acclimated Timo Meier, and Tyler Toffoli, Hughes and the Devils are earmarked to repeat their 52-win success from last season. If the 2019 No. 1 overall pick can breach the 100-point plateau for the first time in his young career, he'll find himself smack dab in the middle of the Hart Trophy conversation.
As far as 'most valuable' goes, the Devils might start the 2023-24 season 0-2-0 if not for some individual brilliance from Hughes. That's no slight to Meier, Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt, or any of the other Devils, but instead an indication of how good Hughes really is.
This is a team that lost a lot of tenured veterans, such as Ryan Graves, Tomas Tatar, and Damon Severson. With the lineup in flux, New Jersey needs someone to give them some consistency and a shoulder to lean on while they adjust - Hughes gives them exactly what the doctor ordered.
The Vancouver Canucks are a perfect 2-0-0 to start the season, and a lot of that success falls on the shoulders of superstar center Elias Pettersson. After racking up a goal and three assists in an 8-1 thrashing of the Oilers on Oct. 11, Pettersson picked up another two assists in their 4-3 rematch win on Oct. 14.
Penalty kill? Check. Power play? Check. Even strength? Check. The 24-year-old can do it all, and his ability to win his matchup in every situation has propelled the Canucks to a hot start. Through two games, Pettersson has an on-ice goals percentage of 88.9 percent — the highest amongst qualifying forwards who've been on the ice for at least one goal against.
Pettersson's MVP case hedges a bit on how long his teammates - like Brock Boeser - can keep up the charade. The 100-point scorer is in a similar situation to Pastrnak in terms of a weaker supporting cast, and especially if Conor Garland is in fact traded out of Vancouver.
In a contract year, Pettersson is producing points at a torrid pace, and doing so against some of the very best in the NHL. He's worth keeping a close eye on in the Hart Trophy race.
After a 'quiet' 2022-23 season, Auston Matthews is back in fine form for the Toronto Maple Leafs, scoring hat tricks in each of his first two games. The 26-year-old was the NHL's MVP two years ago following the 2021-22 season when his 60-goal, 46-assist campaign was enough to secure the Hart Trophy.
Last season, Matthews dipped back below the 100-point threshold with his 85 points, and although he still scored 40 goals, his 12.2 shooting percentage was far lower than the 17.2 percent mark from the year prior. This season, the former MVP has already scored six goals on only 13 shots.
Per Moneypuck, Matthews has scored six times on only 1.7 expected goals, which gives him 3.9 goals above his shooting talent, and 4.3 goals above expected overall. The Maple Leafs are a perfect 2-0-0, and Matthews has scored exactly half of their 12 total goals.
The 2016 No. 1 overall pick has already beaten McDavid out for a Hart Trophy once, and there's a very real chance he can do it again if he's able to sustain this pace for a full season. Matthews has played a full 82-game season just once (2016-17), and played only 73 games when he won his MVP title. He might need to play more than that to ascertain another one.