Hand up. I admit it. I have been on the wrong side of every single game of the conference finals so far.
On the bright side, I did win the player prop I was on in last night's Golden Knights vs. Stars Game 3.
So, with that being the case, I'm going to give out another player prop for tonight's game so that way when I inevitably lose my moneyline bet, I can soften the blow with a player prop win.
Let's dive into my two plays for Hurricanes vs. Panthers Game 4.
NHL Playoff betting record
- 42-38-1 (+2.96 units)
Best NHL bets for tonight
- Hurricanes -105 vs. Panthers
- Matthew Tkachuk UNDER 3.5 shots on goal (-160)
Hurricanes -105 vs. Panthers
I have bet on the Hurricanes in each of the first three games. Despite going 0-3 with those bets, I refuse to stop. I will go down with the Hurricanes ship of I have to.
Carolina has, from an analytics perspective, completely outplayed Florida in this series. If you look at "expected goals", the Hurricanes are averaging 3.34 expected goals per 60 minutes and the Panthers are averaging 2.33 expected goals per 60 minutes.
Sergei Bobrovsky is the reason the Panthers have been on this run in the playoffs. He has a .935 save percentage in the postseason heading into tonight. Can he keep this level of play up? I don't think so, but then again I didn't think he'd keep playing this well and he continues to prove me wrong night after night.
Regardless, I'm trusting the advanced analytics and I'm betting on the Hurricanes to avoid the sweep in Florida tonight.
Matthew Tkachuk UNDER 3.5 shots on goal (-160)
Despite being up 3-0 in the series, the Panthers are averaging only 23.62 shots on goal per game.
Matthew Tkachuk himself has only surpassed this number of shots once in the three games this series. He's also averaging only 2.93 shots on goal per game in the postseason.
The Hurricanes need to lock things down defensively if they want to avoid the sweep tonight, so I love Tkachuk to go UNDER his shot total tonight.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.