Kyler Murray will make his long-awaited return from a torn ACL on Sunday. He suffered the injury 11 months ago in a December bout with the Atlanta Falcons. It's rather poetic that Murray's first game back will also be against the Falcons, who are on the road to face an Arizona Cardinals team officially helmed by the former No. 1 pick.
Last season was a difficult one for Murray, even before the injury. After two straight Pro Bowl nominations in 2020 and 2021, his numbers drooped slightly and the Cardinals as a whole floundered, sputtering to a 3-8 record prior to Murray's season-ending incident.
He still produced at a respectable level individually — 66.4 percent completion rate with 2,368 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, and seven interceptions in 11 starts — but there were sudden questions about Murray's status as the long-term answer at QB for the Cardinals. That was a rather inconvenient revelation given that he signed a five-year, $230.5 million contract before the season.
The Cardinals remained committed to Murray through the 2023 trade deadline. Now, with the Cardinals toiling at 1-8, Arizona is a frontrunner in the Caleb Williams or Drake Maye pursuit. The 2024 NFL Draft looms as a significant inflection point.
Murray's performance over the next eight weeks could conceivably determine the Cardinals' offseason game plan. If he performs well and the team stacks a few wins, Arizona is probably going to stand pat. If Arizona continues to hover at the bottom of the NFL standings, however, that could spell the end of Murray's Arizona tenure.
Here are a few teams that should be scouting Murray in the event of potential trade availability.
3. New England Patriots
The New England Patriots' season has been a proper disaster. The Mac Jones Experience has gone from solid to middling to utterly unbearable. Folks inside the organization are tired of Jones, and the Patriots' backup plan(s) — Bailey Zappe, or Will Grier, or Malik Cunningham — don't inspire much confidence.
Bill Belichick's future with the franchise has come into sharp focus as more and more NFL insiders speculate about what lies beyond the 2023 campaign. Belichick has been at the reins in New England for 24 years, but with the Tom Brady era a fading memory and the Jones era on decidedly uneven terrain, he could be approaching a job change or a retirement ceremony.
Either way, the Patriots will have to address the QB problem. If Caleb Williams and Drake Maye aren't on the table, it could behoove the Patriots to canvass the league for alternatives. Murray's contract is a tough pill to swallow, but he's only 26 years old. He has time to get back up to speed and maybe even better than before. At the very least, he's a comfortable upgrade over the current QB situation.
It shouldn't take much to wrench Murray away from the Cardinals given the size of his contract. The Patriots will either need to reboot the Belichick system or successfully usher in a new head coach. It's hard to accomplish either outcome with Jones under center. Murray has the natural talent and the résumé to warrant a certain degree of optimism. He could move the Patriots back toward respectability.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield has performed admirably on a one-year, $4 million prove-it deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The season has gradually gone awry for the Bucs, but Mayfield has steadily manned the offense with an efficient 64.9 percent completion rate and 12 touchdowns to only four interceptions.
This is a transitional period for the Bucs. With Brady out the door, Mike Evans soon off the books, and several veterans gradually being phased out of the lineup, next year's team could look far different. The front office could justifiably keep Mayfield around, but there's a case to be made for swinging bigger. Mayfield has a definite NFL ceiling, and the Bucs could instead decide to invest in the younger, more accomplished No. 1 pick.
It will take careful consideration on the part of Tampa Bay's front office, of course. How Murray looks upon his return should heavily influence their decision-making. If Murray is back to peak form, it's a worthy investment. If he struggles, however, the Bucs will have to remain conscious of the financial disparity between paying Murray and paying Mayfield. The latter is due for a pay raise in the offseason, but it's hard to imagine his next contract encroaching on Murray's annual average of $46.1 million.
Murray offers more dynamism than Mayfield on paper. He has 23 career rushing touchdowns with 2,204 ground yards to his name. His ability to create off of broken plays is valuable, especially in a day and age where more and more QBs are being asked to operate creatively on offense. Mayfield is a rock-solid pocket presence who has made significant strides as a decision-maker, but he simply doesn't approach Murray's dual-threat talent when the latter is at full strength. On the other hand, it has been a while since Murray looked his best.
It's a risk versus reward proposition for the Bucs' front office.
1. Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons have a top-10 defense and a talented collection of offensive playmakers, including several first-round picks — Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Bijan Robinson. All that's missing is a real quarterback (and maybe a new head coach who understands the value of using his best players).
Desmond Ridder completely face-planted in his first half-season as the Falcons' starting QB. He leads the NFL with 12 turnovers and he didn't play at all in Week 9. Instead, Atlanta has turned the offense over to journeyman veteran Taylor Heinicke. The surface-level result has been two straight losses with Heinicke under center (he and Ridder split time in Week 8), but even so, the offense looks better with a proper gunslinger in the pocket.
That said, Heinicke is hardly a long-term solution for Atlanta. He's a career backup who has flitted from team to team. It's hard to imagine Ridder coming back into possession of the offense with any real success, so the next course of action would be to search the trade market for a replacement. The Falcons could draft a new quarterback, but at 4-5, the team is probably too good to land Caleb Williams or Drake Maye.
Murray will face the Falcons on Sunday, his first action in almost a year. It's a great chance for Atlanta's front office and coaching staff to get an upfront and personal look at the Oklahoma product. Murray provides a more stable arm than Ridder and much better ball security. He's expensive on the financial front, but the Falcons have a metric ton of young offensive talent on rookie-scale contracts. Now is the time to spend on a QB as the up-and-comers find their stride.