The NBA Rookie of the Year race is full steam ahead. It's way too early for definitive statements, but it would appear that we are in for a classic two-horse race. It's only fitting that said race involves two completely absurd 7-foot-plus athletes who are challenging our very understanding of the NBA big man. It would seem we can't escape the recent MVP debate formula, no matter what the award is.
Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren have been the unavoidable focus of the awards conversation so far, but there are several rookies making a splash right now. While a few of the expected powerhouses have struggled out of the gates — Scoot Henderson is shooting 34.5 percent from the field — there are rookies starting for contenders and making a genuine winning impact three weeks into the season.
Here's a look at the landscape as it sits today, with the understanding that it is very early in the campaign and changes are inevitable, from one through five.
NBA Rookie of the Year power rankings: Week 2
Honorable mentions: Brandon Miller, Marcus Sasser, Jordan Hawkins, Keyonte George, Bilal Coulibaly
Cason Wallace has been pitch-perfect as the Oklahoma City Thunder's Swiss Army Knife sixth man. The No. 10 pick was billed as NBA-ready, but he has exceeded even the highest expectations out of the gate. The Thunder have a lot of guards on the roster, but Wallace has comfortably carved out 20-25 minutes every night because he's too good to keep off the floor.
Wallace played point guard at Kentucky, and the general expectation was that he would fit into a combo-guard role in the NBA. OKC is taking it to the next level, though. Wallace has been part of three, even four-guard lineups. Mark Daigneault continues to exercise every attribute of Wallace's skill set. He's spotting up in the corners, he's running pick-and-rolls, he's setting screens, he's finishing on duck-ins at the rim. Wallace has been the ultimate plug-and-play weapon, contributing amply on both ends of the floor — even when the basic numbers don't leap off the screen.
Across seven games, Wallace has averaged 8.0 points, 2.4 rebounds, and 1.4 assists in 22.9 minutes per game. There are rookies with more robust counting stats, but Wallace is operating at the peak efficiency level for a 6-foot-3 guard. He's slashing .688/.545/1.000 right now. Those numbers aren't sustainable, but Wallace has been an elite paint finisher for his size and an absolute marksman on spot-up 3s.
OKC will continue to derive a lot of value from Wallace's connective traits. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, Jalen Williams, and even Chet Holmgren will all take more front-and-center roles in the Thunder offense, but Wallace is making quick decisions in the flow of the game, defending his tail off all over the floor, and finishing plays when called upon. Wallace is on track to be one of the NBA's best role players, with a ceiling that stretches even higher.
Dereck Lively still has to earn Jason Kidd's trust late in games, but the Duke product has very quickly assumed the starting center mantle for a 6-1 Dallas Mavericks team. Life is often difficult for rookie centers. There is so much to navigate defensively at the five spot in the NBA. Lively spent a large portion of his freshman season with the Blue Devils struggling on defense. Now, he's thriving as a pro.
Basketball I.Q. and feel goes a long way in the NBA, and Lively has always been a fast learner. He thinks the game at a high level. He's averaging 1.0 blocks in 24.0 minutes per game, on top of consistent production elsewhere — 9.0 points, 7.7 rebounds, 1.1 assists on 77.8 percent shooting.
He is a legitimate starter for a legitimate contender. Lively doesn't have the most expansive offensive skill set, but he's a hyper-efficient rim finisher who has completely revamped the Dallas offense with his vertical threat. Luka Doncic has never played with such an explosive lob target. Defenses have to adjust their scheme for Doncic because of Lively's absurd catch radius. It's why you invest in nuclear athletes with 7-foot-7 wingspans.
On the whole, Lively has been the most pleasantly surprising rookie to date. He was always going to get a shot to play given the Mavs' shoddy frontcourt depth, but he has thoroughly outclassed Dwight Powell and Maxi Kleber from day one. He is firmly entrenched as the starter and his minutes are going to creep upward as the season progresses.
Lively fits into a very tight niche at the moment, but he has absolutely killed it within the confines of his role. He is a significant factor in the Mavs' early-season turnaround.
Ausar Thompson is tied for the second-most stocks in the NBA with 27 through eight games. He has been an absolute menace on defense, weaponizing his tier-one athleticism and rangy 6-foot-7 frame to wreak havoc away from the ball. He phases in and out of passing lanes and he is a legitimate weak-side rim protector, averaging 1.5 steals and 1.9 blocks in 31.1 minutes per game.
Credit to Monty Williams and the Detroit Pistons for empowering Thompson on defense from the very beginning. The Pistons have a lot to figure out collectively, but Thompson is already pitching his All-Defense case. He's also averaging 9.0 rebounds as a wing. His effort level is off the charts. It is exceedingly rare for rookies (or anybody, frankly) to contribute in ancillary categories to the extent Thompson has.
Of course, it's not all sunshine and roses. Thompson has undergone some expected growing pains on offense. There are flashes as a driver and passer to keep the Pistons fanbase satisfied, but Thompson is averaging 12.0 points on paltry .402/.174/.818 splits. His success at the free throw line is promising and he's at least attempting 3s (2.9 per game), but the Pistons' compressed spacing is a problem. Thompson does not demand attention behind the line, which can cause problems for Detroit's primary creators.
Still, the offense is coming along quickly. After beginning his career with four points, six points, and nine points, Thompson has scored at least 14 points in his last five outings. Factor in the legitimately impressive passing chops (3.8 assists) and his ability to pressure the rim at will due to his elite first step, and it's only a matter of time until Thompson is impacting winning on both ends.
Victor Wembanyama officially put the NBA world on notice with a mesmerizing 38-point performance against the Phoenix Suns last Thursday. The San Antonio Spurs are a spunky 3-4, with multiple wins that can be attributed directly to Wembanyama's game-altering presence on both ends of the floor. He's on track, as expected, to become a truly elite No. 1 option sooner than later.
Wembanyama is tied with Thompson for the second-most stocks in the NBA. He has only appeared in seven games, averaging 1.3 steals and 2.6 blocks in 28.9 minutes. His 8-foot wingspan tends to cause more than a few problems for opposing offenses. He's a one-of-one rim deterrent, but he can also close out to 3-point shooters at record speed and erase passing lanes with a simple poke.
It's only a matter of time until Wembanyama is a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate. In fact, that "time" may be a few weeks from now. The numbers speak for themselves.
On the offensive end, it has been a slightly mixed bag relative to Wembanyama's sky-high expectations. He's averaging 3.6 turnovers to 1.7 assists, which isn't great. That's the one area where NBA physicality has clearly taken its toll. Wembanyama doesn't always handle a swarming defense well.
Otherwise, however, it's difficult to find many holes in Wembanyama's game. The 3-point shot is coming around (up to 32.4 percent) and he's basically impossible to cover one-on-one. He's flowing fluidly into movement jumpers all over the floor. He can face up and navigate tight spaces off the dribble. His jumper can't be blocked, or even really contested. Once he's within arm's reach of the rim, a lob is basically two free points. The Spurs are already getting bold with their attempted passes to Wemby near the basket.
For the season, he's averaging 19.4 points and 8.4 rebounds on .462/.324/.757 splits. He's going to have more nights like the Phoenix game, and the efficiency metrics will continue to trend up as Wembanyama gets more comfortable with his surroundings. He is the next face of NBA basketball. Let's call a spade a spade.
It's impossible to deny the scale of Wembanyama's output as the Spurs' focal point. But... Chet Holmgren still commands the top spot in these rankings. It's close, but I'm not entirely sure it's a proper debate. It will become a debate as Wemby gets more comfortable, but Holmgren has the three-week ROY award signed, sealed, and delivered.
The Thunder are 4-3 with a couple of close losses to contenders. Out of the gates, Holmgren is the second-best player on a legitimate winner. He is an absolute monster on defense (guess who's next on the stocks list behind Wemby and Thompson). Holmgren processes the game at an extremely high level; he's a controlled tempest of arms and attitude, deploying his 7-foot-7 wingspan as both a rim deterrent and a perimeter wall. He's guarding all over the floor and covering an absurd amount of ground for an OKC team that prioritizes positional flexibility.
Holmgren doesn't have the same freedom as Wembanyama on offense, but he has absolutely thrived in a condensed role for OKC. He has the luxury of playing off of multiple talented creators. Holmgren is averaging 17.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 2.7 assists on .557/.538/.900 splits in 29.9 minutes. He's an elite rim finisher, a direct-deposit shooter beyond the arc, and a legitimate fourth or fifth playmaking arm for the Thunder's hydra-esque offense. Holmgren frequently grabs and goes in transition and he's comfortable attacking closeouts, pressuring the rim, and creating for teammates off of drives.
The 3-point percentage will come back down to earth eventually, but Holmgren is a legitimate DPOY candidate, an elite lob threat, and an elite spot-up shooter. He checks so many boxes and he has been remarkably solid for a team that's ready to compete now. Holmgren doesn't have the same turnover or efficiency qualms as Wembanyama. That is the separating factor at this moment in time.
Wembanyama's role will expand as the season progresses and he is more foundational to the Spurs' success. Holmgren is playing next to a potential MVP candidate, Wemby is "the man." But, Holmgren's role will expand, too. As the Thunder start to trust him more as a secondary creator and go-to scorer, the highlights will only get more absurd.
This could end up being a much more competitive Rookie of the Year campaign than initially expected, largely because Holmgren is not here to mess around. He is going straight for the jugular, as is the entire Thunder team.