The NBA Finals are knotted at one game apiece, and while I do have prop plays for tonight's action, I'm also making a pick on the moneyline.
The Nuggets come into this game as slight road favorites, but could they be overvalued against a Miami team that is 6-2 at home in the playoffs?
Plus, we're going back to the well with another Nikola Jokic prop as he continues to dominate this series.
Let's dive into each pick:
NBA best bets record to date
- NBA best bets record for 2022-23 season: 354-311-4 (+11.1949 units)
NBA best bets today
- Miami Heat Moneyline (+120) vs. Denver Nuggets
- Nikola Jokic OVER 50.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-135)
- Caleb Martin OVER 12.5 Points and Rebounds (-120)
Miami Heat Moneyline (+120) vs. Denver Nuggets
I'll come right out and say it.
The Miami Heat are winning Game 3.
The Heat have been elite in Game 3s in this postseason, taking down Milwaukee, New York and Boston in the first meeting in Miami in each series.
Considering the team has put together some insane shooting performances already this postseason, it's a bad sign for Denver that Miami was significantly better at home this season (36.0 percent from 3) compared to on the road (32.9 percent from 3).
I'm also worried about Denver's defense, which was in the bottom 10 in the league on the road this season. The Heat found something that worked with Kevin Love in the starting lineup in Game 2, and I expect Erik Spoelstra to continue this chess match in Game 3.
Jimmy Butler (13-for-33) has also played poorly on offense in this series, so a strong game from him could certainly swing this in Miami's favor. This series could flip on its head tonight.
Nikola Jokic OVER 50.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-135)
Nikola Jokic has hit this number in both of his games in this series, but he's done it in different ways.
In Game 1, Jokic put together a triple-double to finish with 51 points, rebounds and assists, but in Game 2 he rode a 41-point game to clear this prop.
I expect him to find more of a balance in Game 3 after finishing with just four assists in Game 2. The Heat have done a decent job defending Jokic, but he's still shooting 12-for-23 when guarded by Bam Adebayo and 6-for-7 when guarded by Cody Zeller.
There is no stopping the two-time MVP, and with this number dropping from 51.5 to 50.5, I'll gladly take the over.
Caleb Martin OVER 12.5 Points and Rebounds (-120)
Caleb Martin has come back to earth after a great Eastern Conference Finals, scoring just three points in each of the first two games of this series.
However, I'm going to back him at home, as he's consistently gone over these numbers in the playoffs.
Martin has cleared 12.5 points and rebounds in 15 of his 20 playoff games, and he's due for some positive regression as a scorer after making just 2-of-10 shots through the first two games of this series.
—
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.