Ask just about any true NBA fan what their two favorite words are when it comes to the NBA playoffs and you'll get the same response:
Game 7.
Well, we have a doozy of one in the Eastern Conference Finals, as the Boston Celtics are looking to make history and become the first team to ever erase a 3-0 series deficit. Three other teams have made Game 7 after trailing 3-0, but they have all come up short.
All in all, NBA teams are undefeated when leading 3-0 in a series, but Miami is in deep trouble as a sizable underdog on Monday night.
It's Game 7, so we're loading up on the wagers tonight by… fading everyone?
Let's break it down:
NBA best bets record to date
- NBA best bets record for 2022-23 season: 347-305-4 (+11.2729 units)
NBA best bets today
- Boston Celtics -7.5 (-105) vs. Miami Heat
- Jaylen Brown UNDER 24.5 Points (-115)
- Jayson Tatum UNDER 48.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120)
- Caleb Martin UNDER 8.5 Rebounds and Assists (-115)
Boston Celtics -7.5 (-105) vs. Miami Heat
Boston makes history tonight.
The Celtics have plenty of experience in Game 7s, playing in three over the last two postseasons, going 3-0 in those games, including two blowout wins at TD Garden.
Miami has squandered chance after chance to win this series, and oddsmakers have moved Boston to a massive favorite not only in the game, but in the odds to win the NBA Finals as well at +125.
Over the last three seasons, Game 7s have actually seen more blowouts (15+ point wins) than games that have been decided by five or fewer points.
Coming into this series, Boston was a -550 favorite to advance. The team is more talented than Miami, and it has shown that when it makes shots from deep that the Heat can't hang.
At home, I'm going to back the Celtics in a winner-take-all scenario. The history behind the 3-0 lead is tough to overlook, but in a vacuum Boston is the superior team. The C's win, and win big, on Monday night.
Jayson Tatum UNDER 48.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120)
Call me crazy, but this number is way too high for Jayson Tatum in Game 7.
The Celtics star has cleared this line just twice in this series, and in his career in Game 7 he's cleared it once – in his 51-point game against the Philadelphia 76ers in the second round.
Tatum averages an impressive 28.8 points, 9.0 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game in Game 7s in his career, but he's come up short of this number in five of his six showings.
This isn't a knock on Tatum, this number just feels inflated.
Jaylen Brown UNDER 24.5 Points (-115)
While we're talking about inflated numbers, how about Jaylen Brown's points prop?
Brown scored 26 points in Game 6, but he's failed to clear 22.5 points in any other game in this series, and that's where his prop has been for several games.
Well, after his 26-point Game 6, it has risen to 24.5 in Game 7.
To put it simply, Brown has gone UNDER 24.5 points in 10 of his 13 games since the start of the second round of the playoffs. This is an overreaction on his points in such a crucial game. Go UNDER.
Caleb Martin UNDER 8.5 Rebounds and Assists (-115)
Caleb Martin started and played over 40 minutes in Game 6, picking up 15 rebounds in the process. However, it was just the fourth time in 17 playoff games that he had more than 7.5 rebounds, which is where his prop is set tonight.
I'm throwing in the assists here since Martin is not much of a playmaker, averaging 1.6 assists per game in the playoffs and 1.5 per game in this series.
If Martin plays big minutes again, he's going to have plenty of chances on the glass, but I think this number is too high considering he's averaging just 5.5 boards per game in the playoffs. In this series, Martin hadn't grabbed more than five rebounds in a game until Game 6.
This line is an overreaction to his outlier performance, so I'll gladly go UNDER on Monday.
—
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.