MLB Rumors: Shohei Ohtani unlikely to sign short-term contract

There has been growing speculation that Shohei Ohtani might sign a short-term contract to preserve optionality in the near future, but MLB.com insider Mark Feinsand shot the idea down in his latest column. There's simply too much risk involved for Ohtani.

"I think there's a better chance of Ohtani signing back in Japan than there is of him signing a short-term deal. That's not to say that his contract won't have an opt-out clause after 2025 or '26, which would give him an opportunity to test the market again if he returns to his high level on the mound, but when you have a chance to sign the biggest contract in North American sports history, you don't roll the dice on a short-term deal."

Frankly, there's no incentive to sign a short-term contract when opt-out clauses exist. That essentially serves the same function for Ohtani — a way out if he wants to change teams or boost his salary — while also forcing his next team to commit long term in the event of injury or decline.

Ohtani has a chance to sign the biggest contract in MLB history, with some prognosticators projecting a number in excess of $500 million. He is also expected to have suitors from around the country. The Los Angeles Dodgers are tentative favorites, but MLB.com's Jon Paul Morosi is still betting the field.

"No MLB team has a better chance of signing Ohtani than the Dodgers, yet I do not believe their probability surpasses the 50% threshold. The Dodgers' advantages are well-documented: Their status as a perennial playoff team will appeal to Ohtani, who has yet to appear in the MLB postseason. Their team physician, Dr. Neal ElAttrache, performed Ohtani's surgery earlier this year. We know Ohtani is comfortable living in Southern California. And yet there are so many unknowns with Ohtani's wishes that I view "the field" as a stronger prediction."

So, in short, expect Ohtani to sign a long term contract... somewhere. It's far too early to know with any certainty where his inclinations lie. We are in for a particularly thrilling free agency period. The stove is sizzling.

MLB Rumors: Yoshinobu Yamamoto free agency timeline cemented

Behind Ohtani, the most sought-after free agent in the MLB will be Japanese hurler Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who is expected to command a contract in excess of $200 million. He was recently posted by his NPB team, the Orix Buffaloes, and he has until Jan. 4 — the end of his 45-day window — to sign a professional contract in the States.

According to Andy Martino of SNY, it isn't expected to take that long for Yamamoto to land a deal. The 25-year-old will start his free agent process next week with a series of Zoom interviews. From there, he will travel to the U.S. to meet with finalists in-person after the MLB's Winter Meetings, which run Dec. 4-7 in Nashville.

The New York Yankees and New York Mets are both cited as teams interested in Yamamoto. Martino also notes a recent wave of misinformation on the Yamamoto front. It was initially reported that Yamamoto "preferred" to team up with another Japanese player in the MLB, when in reality he simply said he wouldn't have a problem playing with another Japanese player. It's not a requirement or necessarily even a bonus.

That said, Yamamoto is reportedly close with Boston Red Sox OF Masataka Yoshida and San Diego Padres pitcher Yu Darvish. Both franchises have been floated as potential Yamamoto landing spots, while the Dodgers could even target both Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani as part of their aggressive offseason plan.

MLB Rumors: Yankees "concerned" about Cody Bellinger

The Yankees are interested in free agent Cody Bellinger, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. That much is hardly a surprise, as the Yankees have been pegged as Bellinger favorites for a while. That said, New York is evidently "concerned" about one statistical indicator — hard-hit rate.

Bellinger experienced a remarkable resurgence with the Chicago Cubs last season, slashing .307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs and 97 RBIs in 499 at-bats (130 games). He was the main catalyst behind Chicago's postseason push after the All-Star break. While the Cubs ultimately fell short, Bellinger earned a healthy payday after signing a one-year, prove-it contract with Chicago in the aftermath of two injury-plagued, inefficient campaigns with the Dodgers.

The Yankees have deep pockets and could talk themselves into Bellinger as the perfect middle-lineup anchor next to Aaron Judge, but his 31.4 percent hard-hit rate — 10th percentile in the MLB, per Baseball Savant — is evidently a hangup for the front office.

On the other hand, Bellinger frequented the sweet spot of his bat (38.0 percent, 86th percentile) and he hardly ever struck out (15.6 percent, 87th percentile), posting a .279 batting average with two strikes. He does a great job working the count and he's extremely disciplined with his approach. Those two ghastly seasons with LA are a concern, but penalizing Bellinger for hard-hit rate when there are so many positive indicators elsewhere is a flawed process.

The Yankees are also interested in Juan Soto, per Heyman. His 55.3 hard-hit rate lands in the MLB's 99th percentile. Soto is the better player, but he would also require a liquidation of the farm system. Bellinger can be signed with cold, hard cash. Or, the Yankees can target both. Either way, Judge needs help and the Yankees need an outfielder.