After falling short in the NLDS against the Philadelphia Phillies for a second consecutive year, it became abundantly clear that the Atlanta Braves are going to do everything in their power to put the best possible team together and win in 2024.
One area that needs improvement is undoubtedly their starting rotation. The front of the rotation is as good as it gets with Spencer Strider and Max Fried leading the way, but Charlie Morton is aging, Bryce Elder had an abysmal second half, and the fifth starter is pretty non-existent.
One target that felt realistic was Phillies star Aaron Nola who was searching for a very hefty free agent contract. Stealing him away from the Phillies would've been just that much sweeter. Unfortunately for Atlanta, Nola has re-signed with the Phillies on a massive seven-year deal. While it's annoying that Nola is off the board, the Braves are fortunate to have several quality options out in front of them.
1) Braves backup plans after striking out on Aaron Nola: Sonny Gray
Sonny Gray feels like the most realistic option out there with Atlanta missing out on Aaron Nola. The best part is, he won't require the seven years Nola just got from Philadelphia.
While Nola is probably a bigger name, there's no question that Gray was a better pitcher in 2022. Gray wound up posting a 2.79 ERA in 32 starts and 184 innings pitched for Minnesota. He led the AL with a 2.83 FIP and just 0.4 HR/9. He allowed eight home runs all season. Nola on the other hand allowed four times that.
The age is a bit concerning as Gray just turned 34, but after finishing as the AL Cy Young runner-up, there's no reason to believe he'll suddenly be a bad pitcher in 2024. Adding Gray to be Atlanta's third starter would be a luxury nobody else in baseball (including the Phillies) have.
Signing Gray allows the Braves to potentially save some money and seek out other deals to make the team even more loaded than it already is.
2) Braves backup plans after striking out on Aaron Nola: Dylan Cease
Knowing GM Alex Anthopoulos, there's always a strong chance that the Braves will look to the trade market to make a deal happen. It feels less likely this time around with Atlanta clearing up so much money and not having the best prospect capital in the world, but a trade simply cannot be ruled out with this regime in place.
If the Braves do turn to the trade market, they can try to chat with a familiar suitor, the Chicago White Sox. The Braves and White Sox just made a trade before the non-tender deadline, sending several players to Chicago in exchange for Aaron Bummer. Another quantity over quality trade could take place with the Braves acquiring Dylan Cease in exchange for some of their prospects and young players.
Cease is coming off a bit of a down year as he posted a 4.58 ERA in 33 starts for Chicago this season, but he was the AL Cy Young runner-up in 2022 and had some bad luck involved thanks to some poor White Sox defense played behind him.
The 27-year-old is a Georgia native, has two years remaining of team control, and feels like a guy Atlanta would be happy to extend long-term on one of their team-friendly contracts. It's probably not likely the Braves get this done because of the assets they have, but with some deals Atlanta has been able to pull off in the past it really can't be ruled out.
3) Braves backup plans after striking out on Aaron Nola: Jordan Montgomery
One reason Nola was such an attractive option is because of his ability to pitch deep into games consistently. He's had his inconsistencies ERA-wise, but Nola has made at least 32 starts with at least 180 innings pitched in each of the last five full seasons (excluding 2020). That kind of durability and consistency is virtually impossible to come by.
While Jordan Montgomery doesn't have quite that track record, he's been able to make at least 30 starts with at least 155 innings of work in each of the last three seasons. During that time he's posted a 3.48 ERA in 94 starts for the Yankees, Cardinals and Rangers, helping each of those teams make the postseason.
For Texas down the stretch this past season, Montgomery posted a 2.79 ERA in 11 regular season starts, and was just as good, if not better in the postseason. The 2.1 scoreless innings he threw in Game 7 of the ALCS against Houston were huge in the Rangers victory.
If Atlanta was comfortable going to the lengths the Phillies did to strike a deal with Nola, there's a good chance they'll be comfortable giving Montgomery the deal he's likely going to get in free agency. It'll be less than Nola, but still a substantial commitment. He'll be 31 by Opening Day and has turned into one of the best pitchers in all of baseball.