Marcus Stroman's elite performance in a contract year has the Cubs up against a tricky decision to make.
Building a baseball team seems straightforward, right? You sign players you think will perform well relative to the money you spent on them. Then, if they meet or exceed those expectations while also fitting the broader schematics of the team, you keep them around if at all possible.
That simple decision tree doesn't exactly fit for someone like Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Marcus Stroman, but frankly, that shouldn't be surprising. His electric performance in 2023 is unlike any of the other pitchers he's punching in the same weight class as, so him creating a conundrum with no easy answers is entirely unsurprising for the Cubs.
Stroman technically has one year left on his contract, but it's a player option that he can opt out of. All indications are he will do so, because his performance this year (7-4, 2.42 ERA and a NL-leading 1.039 WHIP) have likely earned him a lucrative multi-year deal.
On top of those stats, Stroman has a uniuqe set of achievements that create an allure around him in the trade market. His ground ball percentage is the best in the MLB. He has faced the most batters (163) behind the count of anyone in the MLB, yet maintained a 0.54 ERA in those situations. He has also faced the fifth-most batters in leveraged (medium or high) situations with a .207 average in those situations, not much worse than his .191 at all times (.169 in low leverage situations).
Few pitchers performing as well as Stroman are as battle tested as he is.
Stroman wants that to be with Chicago. The Cubs, as Stroman has indicated, aren't entirely sold.
Marcus Stroman's strong performance could force the Cubs' hand
Chicago, optimistically, could still win the NL Central. They are 6.5 games back, and even if that isn't in the cards, the expanded playoff format gives them a wider path to earn a wild card berth.
So, there's the case for continuing to compete and also hoping the team the Cubs built might just need some time to gel and get in a groove.
The flip side, though, is that the trade deadline this year is a pitcher's market. Every team needs one, and Stroman's value is sky-high. That's a double-edged sword for Chicago because while they can likely trade him for the most they will ever be able to, the ask from him and his agent for a contract extension is also understandably sky-high.
Apparently, Chicago is uninterested in paying that price, at least not yet. But perhaps they're still testing the market and in the end willing to sign on with Stroman.
Stroman's age (32) presents interesting obstacles as well. This is his strongest season thus far, but will this be his peak? Does he have a few seasons left at this level, or will his decline be immediate? These are impossible questions to answer, and given that the team just signed another 30-plus-year-old pitcher in Jameson Taillon to a multi-year deal over the winter, there are sunk costs that reduce the risk Chicago may be willing to take within the rotation.
An extension is not out of the picture, but it's looking less and less likel16y. Stroman's performance just might be too undeniable to avoid cashing in on.