Rep. Jim Jordan is racing to shore up support for his bid for speaker among skeptical GOP House members, but an entrenched bloc of lawmakers opposed to him leaves the Ohio Republican with an uphill climb ahead of a planned Tuesday vote on the House floor.
On the floor, Jordan can afford to lose only four Republicans if every member votes, because a speaker needs a majority of the full House to be elected. But last week, 55 Republicans voted inside the GOP conference against committing to supporting Jordan on the floor -- and a senior Republican House member told CNN he believes there are still roughly 40 "no" votes.
The senior Republican told CNN he's spoken to 20 members willing to block Jordan's path to the floor in a potential roll-call vote Tuesday.
But another GOP source familiar with the matter said Jordan has had positive conversations with members, and believes by Tuesday evening he will be elected speaker. The source said it was "likely" the vote would happen Tuesday, and noted that Jordan may decide to go to multiple ballots on the floor if necessary to win a majority.
House Democratic leadership sent a notice to members that indicated an expected vote at noon ET on Tuesday.
If Jordan is unable to corral enough support to win a floor vote, however, Republicans would be back at square one, leaving the House in a speakerless paralysis coming up on two weeks since Kevin McCarthy's historic ouster.
Without a speaker, the House is unable to pass legislation, though some members have explored empowering interim Speaker Patrick McHenry.
Last week, the Senate was in recess while House Republicans tried to elect a speaker. But the upper chamber will be back Monday and plans to quickly consider an aid package to Israel -- allowing Senate Democrats to paint a stark contrast between the two chambers if the speaker fight drags on.
"We're not waiting for the House," Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Sunday at a news conference in Israel, where he was leading a bipartisan congressional delegation. "We believe that if the Senate works in a strong bipartisan way, it may indeed improve the chances that the House, even with its current dysfunction, will act."
In addition to passing a new aid package for Israel, government funding runs out in roughly a month, and the White House is still pushing for Congress to approve additional aid to Ukraine -- all issues that a new speaker will need to navigate.
Republicans are expected to meet again behind closed doors Monday evening. There remains sizable opposition to Jordan, both from critics of the Ohio Republican as well as those angry at the hardliners who ousted McCarthy and would not back House Majority Leader Steve Scalise for speaker when Scalise defeated Jordan in the conference's first vote last week.
"We can't reward this behavior," the GOP lawmaker said. "We can't let a small group be dictators."
As the speaker fight has dragged on, lawmakers have looked at alternative ways to get the House moving. There's been discussion as to whether McHenry could be given expanded powers, though it's not clear there would be support in the chamber to do so.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Sunday there have been "informal conversations" about a bipartisan governing coalition, though he did not say whether there was a candidate on the Republican side who could garner Democratic votes.
"There are informal conversations that have been underway. When we get back to Washington tomorrow, it's important to begin to formalize those discussions," Jeffries said on NBC's "Meet the Press."
Without Democratic support, any Republican speaker candidate can lose only four GOP votes, if all members are voting.
Jordan is only the latest GOP candidate to try to bring together the divided conference. Scalise had hoped to do so last week after he won a 113-99 vote over Jordan to be the speaker-designate.
But Scalise dropped out of the race Thursday after the number of his opponents grew to 20. The majority leader, who is expected to stay in that role, did not try to go to the floor to force his detractors to go public with their vote.
Now Jordan appears likely to do just that with Tuesday's vote.
Rep. Dan Crenshaw, a Texas Republican, told CNN's Jake Tapper on "State of the Union" Sunday that the "manufactured divisions" inside the conference make it hard for any candidate to get the necessary votes.
"Nothing's impossible," Crenshaw said of Jordan's chances. "But it's going to be really, really difficult, based on what I'm hearing."