House Speaker Mike Johnson’s new short-term funding plan for the US government could run aground in the next 24 hours, raising the risk of a Nov. 18 shutdown.
Hardline conservatives have two opportunities to sabotage Johnson’s proposal even before a House vote planned for Tuesday. President Joe Biden also has a weapon available. He could issue an explicit veto threat, which would damage prospects for Democratic support in that vote.
Johnson’s plan, which would temporarily fund some parts of the US government through Jan. 19 and other parts through Feb. 2, faces opposition from at least eight ultra-conservatives who want immediate spending cuts or changes to immigration law as a condition for any interim measure.
“I will not support a status quo that fails to acknowledge fiscal irresponsibility, and changes absolutely nothing while emboldening a do-nothing Senate and a fiscally illiterate President,” House Freedom Caucus Chairman Scott Perry said on X, the social media site.
That means he will need at least some Democrats to vote for his plan, though many of them object to leaving out aid to Israel and Ukraine and to the threat of a two-step shutdown in the new year.
Hardline conservatives’ opportunities stem from the House’s byzantine parliamentary rules, which are so burdensome that legislation typically requires a special individual rule that must be proposed by the powerful House Rules Committee.
Read More: US Shutdown Risk Lingers Despite Speaker’s Compromise Plan
Ultra-conservatives on the panel could band together to block the funding measure from advancing out of the committee when it meets Monday evening. So far, Texas Representative Chip Roy, who sits on the Rules Committee, has announced that he will oppose the measure. Eyes will be on fiscal hawk Thomas Massie of Kentucky, who could allow the bill to come to the floor despite its lack of spending cuts.
Hardliners get another shot even if the committee advances the resolution. Technically, the whole House must approve the rule proposed by the panel before it can consider Johnson’s plan.
Such procedural votes are typically party-line votes and Johnson can only afford to lose three of his Republican members on such as vote. Democrats have only rarely crossed party lines to support Republican debate rules.
Johnson also has option to bring the interim funding to the floor without a debate rule using a different procedure that requires two-thirds of representatives to approve the bill. That would require support from a large number of Democratic lawmakers.
Such Democratic support is by no means guaranteed. The White House issued a scathing statement on the stopgap and could announce as soon as Monday that President Joe Biden intends to veto the measure. The White House had been seeking to tie emergency Ukraine, Israel, humanitarian and disaster aid to the package and also opposes the two-step approach.
A Biden veto threat could drive up Democratic “no” votes on the measure.
“Speaker Johnson is setting up a system that will double the number of shutdown showdowns,” Rosa DeLauro the top-ranking Democrat on the House committee responsible for spending measures, warned in a statement that stopped short of saying she will vote no.
In the Senate Democrats have set up a 5:30 pm Monday vote to begin work on a rival Democratic plan, likely interim funding into January.
GOP votes would be needed to advance debate on that measure. Senate Republicans are gearing up to block it, John Cornyn of Texas said on X.
If most GOP senators stick together to block consideration, it would be a sign they are rallying behind the Johnson plan.