The Atlanta Falcons could potentially sneak into the NFC playoffs as the No. 4 seed this season.
For the first time in years, the Atlanta Falcons have some level of hope heading into a campaign.
This has been the most painful stretch of Falcons football in my lifetime. After pretty much making the NFC playoffs every three or four years, getting to four NFC championship games and playing in two Super Bowls, it has been a painfully long time since 2017. Fortunately for Dirty Bird Nation, the Falcons seem to have a roster that could sneak up on some people this year to win 11 games.
For Atlanta to make the playoffs with an 11-6 or 10-7 mark, they have to win these three games.
Atlanta Falcons: 3 wins they need to have to make the NFC playoffs this season
3. Week 17: at Chicago Bears (Sunday, Dec. 31)
This one may not seem like much, but there are a lot of reasons why the Falcons just need to find a way to win on the road vs. the Chicago Bears in Week 17. Chicago could be markedly better than a year ago, but the Bears had the worst record in the NFL for a reason last season. Even if the Bears are not in playoff contention in Week 17, Atlanta might be, and they cannot afford to slip up.
This game is sandwiched in between a very winnable home finale vs. the Indianapolis Colts in Week 16 and a road date at the arch rival New Orleans Saints. Atlanta should beat the Colts at home. While any division rivalry game is tough, on the road vs. your arch nemesis with potentially the season on the line is not exactly a situation I see the Falcons thriving in, to be totally honest.
Head-to-head tiebreakers will be important, as could overall conference record. A road win over the Bears could be what gives the Falcons the No. 7 seed if they go 10-7, but don't win the division. Keep in mind that this team has gone 7-10 in back-to-back seasons. They were in every game a season ago, outside of the road blowout loss to Joe Burrow and those Cincinnati Bengals.
Simply, it's hard to see the Falcons be anything close to a playoff team with a road loss to Chicago.
Week 2: vs. Green Bay Packers (Sunday, Sept. 17)
Don't kid yourselves. This is one of the most important early-season litmus test games for both parties. Whoever wins at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sept. 17 between the Falcons and the Green Bay Packers could emerge as a playoff team. It features two middle-of-the-pack NFC teams with unproven quarterbacks under center. This is a massive stage for Desmond Ridder and Jordan Love.
We are not only looking at a potential tiebreaker if these two teams were to be in line for a Wild Card berth, but as with the Chicago game, in-conference record matters! The Falcons may have the better roster entering Week 2. I don't know if they have the better quarterback, but we'll find out. Even more importantly, this game is at home, albeit vs. a fan base that should travel very well.
Ultimately, the Falcons are going to want to build some momentum before taking on presumably some of the better teams on their schedule, whether that be the Detroit Lions in Week 3, the Jacksonville Jaguars in London in Week 4 or home vs. the Minnesota Vikings in Week 9. If you go 3-3 in-division, that only leaves three or four games you can drop to have a double-digit win season.
It is hard to see the Falcons getting to roughly 10 wins if they do not take care of the Packers early.
Week 12: vs. New Orleans Saints (Sunday, Nov. 26)
You can't get swept by the New Orleans Saints two years in a row, guys. I'm sorry. Just figure it out. While the NFC South has never been more wide open than it is now, one could easily argue for the Saints to be the team to beat because they have the best quarterback in former Las Vegas Raiders signal-caller Derek Carr coming over in his free agency. The Falcons must split with them.
With the Week 12 matchup at The Benz coming after a bye and two weeks after what should be a very winnable road game at the Arizona Cardinals, the Falcons cannot come out flat in this one. After this game, they have a road date at Aaron Rodgers' New York Jets in Week 13, followed up by another gotta-have-it game vs. Baker Mayfield's sinking Tampa Bay Buccaneers come Week 14.
Ultimately, the Falcons probably need to go 4-2 in NFC South play to win the division. That would require a sweep of either the Buccaneers or the Carolina Panthers. While those are not exactly impossibilities, it is going to be so difficult to see Atlanta win the division with a 10-7 record if they have a pair of losses to the Saints on the year. It is at home after a bye, so they must be prepared.
No team is good enough to go 5-1 or better in NFC South play, so 4-2 has to be the winning mark.