European stocks slumped the most in almost a month as Fitch Ratings’ downgrade of the US sovereign credit triggered risk-off trades across the board, while earnings reports did little to offset the negative sentiment.
The Stoxx 600 Index was 1.7% down as of 9:50 a.m. in London, with all the subindexes and 97% of its constituents trading in the red.
The US was stripped of its top-tier sovereign credit grade by Fitch, which criticized the country’s ballooning fiscal deficits and an “erosion of governance” that’s led to repeated debt limit clashes over the past two decades.
“The US rating cut could be the first and we could see other countries being downgraded as high debt is a common issue for many, but for the US I don’t see this having a big effect on the economy,” said Alfonso Benito, chief investment officer at Dunas Capital.
Among single stocks, Siemens Healthineers AG dropped after the German medical technology company missed estimates. Hugo Boss AG declined even as the retailer raised its guidance for 2023 after second-quarter results topped estimates. Haleon Plc outperformed after it raised its full-year sales forecast.
After Europe’s benchmark posted its third month of gains in four in July, August has started on a negative note, following a trend in which August and September are usually the worst time for European stocks, based on the average performance of the Stoxx 600 over the past 25 years.
Here is what market participants are saying about the US rating downgrade:
Richard Saldanha, a global equity fund manager at Aviva Investors:
“Whilst the Fitch US downgrade is notable we don’t think this will have a significant impact from an investment perspective – investors are much more focused right now on inflation (where we are seeing a gradual easing based on recent data) as well as confirmatory signals from the Fed that we are now near the peak of the hiking cycle. With signs that we may be getting closer to a soft landing scenario rather than an outright recession, as well as a fairly upbeat earnings season thus far, we think there are reasons to believe markets can sustain their recent gains.”
Mark Dowding, chief investment officer at RBC BlueBay Asset Management LLP:
“On the whole, we don’t see the Fitch downgrade to US as particularly significant. However, it serves as a reminder that there will be heavy ongoing issuance of Treasuries on a forward looking basis and this is something that can weigh on global markets if this prompts a steepening of the yield curve and a rise in the discount rate for longer dated cash flows. I would also note that over the past few weeks, investors have been buying into the Goldilocks theme in the US economy, causing entrenched bears to capitulate. However, inasmuch as the market starts to price for perfection, then it will become intrinsically more vulnerable to a correction.”
Andrew Bell, chief executive officer of Witan Investment Trust:
“This is a purely symbolic move, reflecting facts already known to the market and doesn’t alter the fact that US treasuries will continue to set the benchmark for liquid collateral readily convertible into cash. The US economy is growing better than expected and better than others, which improves its ability to continue to service its debts. Longer term, the rising amount of government debt will either tend to mean investors will need higher bond yields to persuade them to buy or the dollar will be less strong than in the past.”
Richard Flax, chief investment officer at European digital wealth manager Moneyfarm:
“There’s some short-term potential to cause to profit taking. Longer-term dynamics don’t change. The biggest drivers will still be broader issues around the impact of monetary policy on developed economies and whether we’ll see a soft landing or more macro weakness coming through. Does the downgrade act as a catalyst? Maybe a little but it won’t be the main driver over the long term.”
For more on equity markets:
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- US Stock Futures Fall; SolarEdge, Paycom Software, Nevro Fall
- BP Jumps On Big Oil’s Buyback Train: The London Rush
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--With assistance from Michael Msika, Julien Ponthus, Sagarika Jaisinghani and Lisa Pham.
Author: Macarena Muñoz