Change is coming to Fenway Park in the 2024 season, perhaps most notably because fans and the Boston Red Sox brass are less than pleased with the club's finishes as of late. So in comes Craig Breslow, now the top decision-maker in Boston after Chaim Bloom was cut loose.
Breslow has already indicated he will be far more aggressive in landing stars for the Red Sox and, perhaps more pressingly, he knows that upgrading the rotation for 2024 and beyond is of the utmost importance, as is the bullpen -- but that's for another day.
The Red Sox ranked 24th in MLB in runs allowed in the first six innings last year, an indictment on the rotation after Bloom and the Boston brass banked heavily on the likes of Corey Kluber. But it's been an ongoing problem for the Sox beyond just this past year as they ranked 28th in the same metric back in the 2022 season.
It's something that needs to be priority No. 1 for Boston. Luckily, with Breslow at the helm, the Red Sox can dare to dream about their 2024 rotation as all three newcomers to this dream pitching staff are in play for the franchise.
Red Sox No. 5 starter: Chris Sale, LHP
After how great Chris Sale was for the Red Sox immediately upon arrival, it's certainly gone downhill with an extreme quickness over the past few years. Injuries have plagued Sale since the end of 2019, which has to be factored into the equation. What's worse, though, is that it's seemed like every return ends poorly for the southpaw.
He looked great at times over nine starts back in 2021 with a 3.16 ERA. However, he pitched in only two games in 2022 and then was in and out of the rotation in the 2023 season as well. He finished the year with a 4.30 ERA, which is a far cry from where he once was. However, he did show some positive signs in September when he lasted at least five innings in four of his five starts and allowed more than one earned run in all but one of the five starts.
At 34 years old, the big question with Sale would be if he could earn the No. 5 role over the likes of Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Nick Pivetta, assuming all three remain on the team as at least a couple of those arms have been floated already this offseason as trade candidates.
For me, Sale's body of work when healthy gives him the nod. If he can stay healthy, it still seems like the lanky lefty has some juice that could be wicked at the back end of a rotation. The good news for the Red Sox should they retain guys like Houck, Crawford and Pivetta in the bullpen or otherwise is that they have plenty of injury insurance for Sale that they could feel confident in.
Red Sox No. 4 starter: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP
It seems like just about any of the 30 MLB teams who are willing to spend big in free agency are planning to pursue Japanese free agent, Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Just 25 years old after posting a microscopic 1.21 ERA for the Orix Buffaloes in Japan this past season, Yamamoto figures to be the best pitcher on the open market this offseason. That means he's going to be costly and that the Red Sox will have a boatload of competition in free agency. However, Boston might have a leg up on that competition.
Andy Martino reported for SNY that, while the Yankees and Mets are expected to be top suitors for Yamamoto, the Orix hurler has a strong friendship with Red Sox outfielder Masataka Yoshida. That could serve as a big-time boost for Boston's chances at landing him, especially if Breslow comes into negotiations ready to burn up the checkbook.
As for why he's the No. 4 in this Red Sox dream rotation, there are two reasons behind that. First, the top three guys on this ideal pitching staff are that damn good. The second, though, is that many often worry about the transition from Japanese baseball to MLB. Yamamoto's youth and experience at such a young age should serve him well, but it is a question he'll still need to answer.
Without having seen it yet, I would suspect that Yamamoto could be behind three other elite arms in the Red Sox rotation, but still an absolutely crucial addition.
Red Sox No. 3 starter: Brayan Bello, RHP
When Brayan Bello got the call-up in the 2022 season, Red Sox fans were extremely excited for the prospects of the young right-hander being a core part of the rotation of the future. Unfortunately, his immediate results didn't totally showcase that as he finished his 13 appearances (11 starts) with a 4.71 ERA and 1.77 WHIP.
This past season, though, Bello really started to flash his elite potential over 28 starts. Sure, the 4.24 ERA and 1.33 WHIP aren't top-tier by any stretch of the imagination, but those who watched in his best starts saw the makings of a potential ace, even if the consistency from start-to-start hasn't totally been there.
Case in point is probably his strtech of 10 starts in May and June. Bello pitched 60.2 innings over that stretch and allowed just 16 earned runs over that run, good for just a 2.37 ERA while also posting a 1.07 WHIP. Yes, he followed that up with a 5.48 July ERA, but the potential was obvious.
There are some truly strange numbers when it comes to Bello's 2023 season, most notably his 6.94 ERA in day games (10 starts) in comparison to a 3.06 ERA in night games (18 starts). Whatever the root cause of that needs to be figured out.
We've seen enough of the 24-year-old to this point, however, to know that he has the stuff to be a potentially dominant starter in Boston. He's going to be the home-grown star of this dream rotation and anchor the group in th emiddle of it as well.
Red Sox No. 2 starter: Dylan Cease, RHP
Yamamoto is one of two big free agent signings that Craig Breslow would need to make in order for this dream Red Sox rotation to become a reality, but there are also more ways to add some newcomers. And with some of the names on the trade market this offseason, Boston could make a huge stride in upgrading their rotation if they were able to land one of these guys.
Whether we're talking about Corbin Burnes, Tyler Glasnow, Shane Bieber, or Dylan Cease, these are all Cy Young-caliber starters who are reportedly available on the trade block, albeit to varying degrees. Of that group, though, one could argue that Cease is the most available as new Chicago White Sox GM Chris Getz has not been shy about wanting to open up a fire sale on the Southside this offseason.
After finishing second in AL Cy Yong voting for the 2022 season with a 2.20 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, the encore effort for Cease was a bit lackluster in comparison. Starting 33 games, the White Sox righty's ERA ballooned to 4.58 with a 1.41 WHIP. However, even then, his 3.72 FIP for the season showed that he pitched better than the ultimate results that came about.
Only under club control until the end of the 2025 season, Cease figures to be a coveted commodity on the trade market who won't come cheap because of that. Luckily for Breslow and the Red Sox, the organization's farm system is extremely strong right now and has the weight to potentially make this type of trade happen.
If Breslow were able to secure a 27/28-year-old starter of Cease's caliber and extend him, that would be a huge victory for the future of Boston's rotation, and in 2024 as well, obviously.
Red Sox No. 1 starter: Jordan Montgomery, LHP
And now we arrive at the big fish that the Red Sox could possibly land in free agency this offseason outside of the Japanese sensation, Yamamoto. Full disclosure, the first draft of the Red Sox dream rotation featured NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell as the No. 1 in this rotation, getting Boston a lefty at the top again and someone who is familiar dominating the AL East.
Then came reports this past week that the Red Sox actually prefer World Series winner Jordan Montgomery to Snell in terms of landing an ace in free agency. So who am I to argue with the buzz about what this team is going to do coming from insiders (even if I think Snell is a slightly better option, though he may be more costly).
Montgomery has weird split his past two seasons with three teams, being traded for Harrison Bader from the Yankees to the Cardinals at the deadline in 2022 only for St. Louis to bottom out in 2023 and trade him to the Rangers, where he went and helped earn Texas its first World Series ring. What's most odd about his movement is that he's been good at every single stop.
Across 32 starts with the Yanks and Cardinals in 2022, he posted a 3.48 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP. He followed that up with a 3.20 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over 32 starts with the Cards and Rangers, including a 2.79 ERA with Texas. He was also nails in the postseason and truly a vital part of his club winning the World Series.
The lefty was already going to be a hot commodity in free agency but he's turned that heat up exponentially. Boston is going to be involved and Montomgery has proven he can be a legitimate anchor for a rotation at the top.