On the heels of another disappointing postseason exit for the Atlanta Braves, this feels like an inflection point in the 2023-24 offseason. Alex Anthopoulos knows that this team has some areas to improve upon, but perhaps the most notable is adding to the pitching staff, the starting rotation in particular.
The Braves know that they have a strong 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation for the 2024 season barring any stunning trades with Spencer Strider and Max Fried leading the way. However, this is a group that could make some big splashes in free agency or on the trade market this offseason to further improve the pitching staff.
If that happens, though, what would the Braves dream rotation for the 2024 season look like? Taking into account some of what we know and some things that are unlikely to change, this is what Atlanta's pitching staff could roll out this year -- and every Braves fan would love it.
Braves No. 5 starter: Charlie Morton, RHP
There was plenty of debate throughout the end of the regular season that veteran Charlie Morton might retire and add even more urgency to the Braves trying to fortify the starting rotation. Instead, though, the club picked up the $20 million option for the longtime right-hander who will be 40 years old on Opening Day in the 2024 season.
Despite his advanced age and ending the season on the IL, Morton continued to be a solid back end cog of the Braves rotation in the 2023 season. Morton started 30 games for Atlanta this past year and posted a 3.64 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP. He wasn't spectacular by any stretch but, when the club was hit hard by injuries throughout the organization to rob them of starting pitching depth, Morton was huge.
If we're talking about a dream rotation for the Braves, I believe Morton as the veteran presence with the No. 5 starter is the right call. Yes, that takes a 2023 All-Star in Bryce Elder out of the rotation and raises question marks for the likes of Jared Shuster, AJ Smith-Shawver and Michael Soroka.
However, the Braves' sole goal for the 2024 season should be putting a World Series caliber roster and rotation on the field by any means that are within their power. That's going to lead to tough decisions, and choosing Morton over Elder and others would certainly qualify in that regard.
Braves No. 4 starter: Sonny Gray, RHP
Essentially since the playoffs ended prematurely for the Braves, the talk about the team being in the lucrative starting pitching market in free agency has been present. And one name that has consistently come up in connection with Atlanta is veteran hurler Sonny Gray.
Gray, who spent the last two seasons with the Minnesota Twins, is as good as gone from the Twin Cities after reports indicated that the Twins are looking to cut payroll. Thus, re-signing Gray to what is likely to be his final big payday in his career at 34 years old doesn't appear to be a prudent use of their seemingly limited resources.
The Braves, on the other hand, are said to be in this market and could be willing to pony up and give the veteran right-hander a deal. And it would be worth it to really round out the middle or bottom of this rotation.
Though his 8-8 win-loss record might not indicate it, Gray was stellar in the 2023 season with Minnesota, posting a 2.79 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over 184 innings and 32 starts. He was a split bag in the postseason, dominating the Blue Jays in a Twins win in the AL Wild Card, but then getting shelled for four earned runs (five total) over 4.0 innings in the ALDS against the Astros.
Gray appears to be one of the top targets for Atlanta in free agency and he should be. He's not going to break the bnk to the level of Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Aaron Nola or several others. However, for what the Braves need, he can still have a substantial impact if they can strike a deal with the veteran.
Braves No. 3 starter: Max Fried, LHP
Max Fried is going to be one of the bigger hot-button issues for the Braves in the 2023 offseason. He's entering the final year of club control with the club and it appears, as it has for months now, that an extension is unlikely.
As a result, there has been at least some speculation that Anthopoulos and the Braves brass might explore the possibility of a trade for the productive southpaw to avoid possibly losing him for nothing in free agency in the 2024-25 offseason.
If we're talking about the dream rotation for the Braves in the 2024 season, however, Max Fried undoubtedly has to be part of that. And if we really wanted to make this the ideal scenario for Atlanta, he would be pitching after having inked a long-term extension with the organization.
Fried missed substantial time in the 2023 season with a hamstring injury that limited him to only 14 starts on the year. When he ws on the bump, though, he remained quietly one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball. He finished the regular season with a 2.55 ERA (the third time in four seasons he's had an ERA under 2.60) and WHIP of 1.13 over 77.2 innings.
Yes, Fried's lone postseason start was anything but what you'd want as he gave up six hits, four walks and three earned runs in 4.0 innings against Philadelphia, though Atlanta did combat that and pick up the win. However, when you look at the body of work for the 29-year-old lefty, he's clearly a big part of the Braves rotation and would be a major loss if he's not in 2024.
Braves No. 2 starter: Dylan Cease, RHP
In each of the past two offseasons, we've seen Alex Anthopoulos execute relatively genius trades to give the Braves one of the most formidable top-to-bottom lineups in baseball. In 2021-22, it was trading for A's first baseman Matt Olson. In 2022-23, Anthopoulos called up Oakland once again, this time to nab catcher Sean Murphy. Both were All-Stars in 2023.
So maybe his 2023-24 big move is to now help address the team's biggest need in the rotation. And it seems like Chicago White Sox hurler Dylan Cease could be the perfect target for the Braves to pursue in that capacity.
Coming out of the GM Meetings, the belief seems to be that Cease can be had, as can anyone on the White Sox roster, this offseason. The right-hander is quite intriguing, though, with two years of club control remaining before he hits free agency while already have a runner-up Cy Young finish to his credit back in 2022.
Cease took a step back this season as part of the collapse on the Southside, posting a 4.58 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. However, no one believes anything other than the soon-to-be 28-year-old remains an elite arm that would be coveted on the trade market.
In light of a continued White Sox fire sale looking like reality, I argued the Braves are a perfect trade partner for Chicago when it comes to Cease, having the ability to offer young, controllable pitching and a Tim Anderson replacement in Vaughn Grissom to help jumpstart a rebuild. It would be absolutely massive to land him to form a 1-2-3 punch with Fried and our No. 1 in this dream rotation.
Braves No. 1 starter: Spencer Strider, RHP
Despite the overall playoff disappointment of the Braves in 2023, Spencer Strider showed a strong step forward in his young career.
In his playoff debut in 2022, he pitched just one game in the NLDS loss to the Phillies and got absolutely shelled, lasting only 2.1 innings and giving up five runs. He made two starts in the 2023 postseason, however, giving up four earned runs (five total) over 12.2 innings. Unfortunately, the high-powered Atlanta offense gave him just one combined run of support over his two starts, which both ended in losses for the Braves.
Though there was some fading from Strider in the regular season as he pitched by far his career-high in 186.2 innings, he still showed that he's the ace of the future for the Braves. He ended the season witha. disappointing 3.86 ERA but still sported a nice 1.09 WHIP, was a 20-game winner and, most importantly perhaps, struck out 281.
Now 25 years old as we go into the 2024 season, the next step forward for Strider is quite obvious as the Braves will be hoping he can show a bit more consistency as his ERA was almost a full run worse in the second half compared to the first. He's clearly got all of the goods and the belief should be that Alex Anthopoulos and Brian Snitker will continue to put him in such positions.