US job growth during much of the past year was weaker than previously projected by about 300,000 jobs, according to new federal data released Wednesday.
As part of the agency's annual benchmark review of payroll data, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down March 2023's employment gains by 306,000 positions.
Despite the downward revision, which actually landed well below some estimates, the
When spread through the prior year, that amounts to about 25,000 fewer net jobs added per month, meaning that the average monthly job gain for the 12 months ended in March 2023 was nearly 312,000 versus 337,000, BLS data shows.
"The change is -0.2% and the average adjustment over the last 10 years has been 0.1%," Chris Rupkey, economist with FwdBonds, wrote in a note Wednesday. "We don't see any sign here that the labor market is secretly weak."
"Keep in mind the economy is still growing, having created 870,000 more jobs since March," he added. "July payroll employment is 156.342 million. When the economy stops growing, we will see non-farm payroll employment fall. No recession looming here in the benchmark revision."
The bulk of the downward revisions were in the transportation and warehousing sector (down 146,400) as well as the professional and business services sector (down 116,000).
Federal data is fluid and frequently subject to change as more detailed and accurate information becomes readily available. The Labor Department's monthly jobs report is based upon survey responses from employers across a wide swath of industries. The initial estimate is then revised twice more.
Every year, the BLS conducts a revision to the data from its monthly survey of businesses' payrolls, then benchmarks the March employment level to those measured by the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program.
The QCEW provides a more comprehensive read on the number of businesses, employees and wages at the state, regional and county level because it derives that data from quarterly tax reports submitted by businesses to their states. Given that process, the QCEW comes at a significant lag: The data for the first quarter of 2023 was also released Wednesday.
Wednesday's preliminary benchmark revision won't change the existing employment data. The monthly totals for 2022 will be updated in February 2024, when the final benchmark revision is issued.
This story is developing and will be updated.