Coming into Week 11 of the season, this was always going to be a turning point for the College Football Playoff rankings. With Georgia facing its second major SEC test in as many weeks in Ole Miss and Michigan going on the road for by far its toughest opponent of the year in Penn State, it was proving time for a pair of Top 4 teams. But the teams elsewhere in the Top 25 were looking to avoid upsets as well.
As for Georgia and Michigan's part, they more than took care of business, especially in the case of the Dawgs. However, the other Top 25 teams in the latest CFP rankings had a bit more trouble keeping their stock on the rise.
Whether it was Kansas losing Jason Bean and then losing to Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and Tennessee getting run off of the field on the road, or a number of other close calls throughout the country, the rankings are starting to take an even clearer shape, at least based on what we know and what the Selection Committee should do.
So what will the college football rankings for the CFP Top 25 look like when the committee reveals them on Tuesday? Let's check out our projections after a wild Saturday and with just two weeks of the regular season remaining.
Projected Top 25 College Football Playoff rankings after Week 11: No. 25-21
25. Tennessee Volunteers
Can we finally stop pretending that this iteration of Tennessee is anything close to what we saw a year ago? Anyone who has watched Joe Milton at all this year could've told you that, but Missouri more than proved it. Frankly, you could make the argument that the Vols should no longer be ranked after a 36-7 loss, but we all know that with the Georgia game next week and their SEC pedigree, they will stay just barely inside the Top 25.
24. Oklahoma State Cowboys
How in the world do you figure out what to do with Oklahoma State at this point? At 7-3, the Pokes have wins over Oklahoma, West Virginia, Kansas and Kansas State to their credit. They also have a loss to Iowa State and blowout losses to South Alabama and now UCF going against them. They'll stay in the Top 25 on the strength of the wins, but this team is about as impossible to predict as any in the country.
23. Liberty Flames
Yes, Liberty has played a Charmin-soft schedule this season in Conference USA and is clearly the best team in that league. However, going 10-0 is still enough to earn some respect from the CFP rankings and get the Flames into the Top 25. The latest exploit from Jamey Chadwell's team was dismantling Old Dominion on Saturday, 38-10. They finish the season against a pair of 3-7 teams in UMass and UTEP, which sets Liberty up for a perfect regular season.
22. Utah Utes
Do I truly believe that Utah is one of the 25 best teams in college football with Bryson Barnes at quarterback? Not at all. However, they continue to give spirited efforts, as you'd expect for a Kyle Whittingham team, the latest of which was putting a scare into Washington. The committee isn't going to drop the Utes out of the Top 25 with all their losses coming against Top 15 teams in the country and with wins over UCLA, USC and even Florida.
21. Kansas State Wildcats
I'll be the first to admit that I wouldn't have ranked Kansas State still after their spirited overtime loss to Texas a week ago, but the committee did. And credit to the Wildcats for responding to the loss to the Longhorns by going back to the Little Apple and beating the brakes off of Baylor. Sure, Baylor is in a bad place right now, but Will Howard set the K-State career record for touchdown passes and tallied four total scores on Saturday in the 59-25 win.
Projected Top 25 College Football Playoff rankings after Week 11: No. 20-16
20. North Carolina Tar Heels (Playing vs. Duke)
Given that the Tar Heels' last three games have been losses to lowly Virginia and Georgia Tech followed by an ugly start against Campbell before pulling away, no one knew what to expect for a rivalry game against Duke, even with the Blue Devils missing Riley Leonard. It looked as if UNC might run away with this game early but an unthinkable Drake Maye interception and some poor defense actually allowed Duke to take a first-half lead. In the second half, though, the North Carolina defense stepped up and set the Heels up for a win.
19. Tulane Green Wave
Honestly, it's only more frustrating to know that undefeated James Madison is senselessly not eligible for a bowl game and the CFP rankings, which is going to put this Tulane team into a New Year's Six bowl game. The Green Wave edged out a poor Tulas team on Saturday to stay with one loss, but outside of Michael Pratt, this is a B-movie version of the team we saw last year from Tulane.
18. Iowa Hawkeyes
In case you were ever in doubt, the Iowa under hit once again, despite a 22-point offensive explosion from Brian Ferentz's unit and the lowest total in college football history after the line closed at 27.5. Hats off to this defense, as per usual, for making the Rutgers offense look completely hopeless in the 22-0 win for the Hawkeyes. They move up, but no one in their right mind would give them a chance against any team in the Top 10 (and maybe the Top 15).
17. Arizona Wildcats
Jedd Fisch's team broke into the Top 25 last week when the committee met after back-to-back upset wins. On Saturday, they almost found themselves on the other side of that against Colorado in Boulder. Shedeur Sanders had Arizona on the ropes in a shootout, but the Wildcats defense put the clamps on at the right time and Noah Fifita continued his rise to stardom with a key late drive to set up the game-winning field goal.
16. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
After having played in Week 0, the Irish were able to get a bye in Week 11 before going into their final two-game stretch against Wake Forest and Notre Dame. Not too shabby to not step foot on the field and move up four spots in the rankings, huh? The Irish definitely benefit from a chaotic week and should be able to finish strong to at least make a push for a New Year's Six bid.
Projected Top 25 College Football Playoff rankings after Week 11: No. 15-11
15. LSU Tigers (Playing vs. Florida)
It's the same story we've seen time and again from LSU. Jayden Daniels and the Tigers offense are absolutely electric, which the QB showed with two 50+ yard rushing scores and over 200 yards on the ground and through the air against Florida. But the defense still can't stop a cold at this point, which allowed Florida to keep things close in Baton Rouge on Saturday night and put LSU in danger of losing its fourth game of the season.
14. Ole Miss Rebels
Ole Miss may have to navigate the rest of its season without starting quarterback Jaxson Dart as the veteran was forced out of the loss to Georgia in the second half after a big collision. It wouldn't have made a difference in Athens, though, as the game was already out of reach by that point. The Rebels defense got a bit exposed in the blowout loss to the reigning national champions, but enough chaos happened in this range of the Top 25 for Ole Miss to stay in the Top 15.
13. Oklahoma Sooners (Playing vs. West Virginia)
With Oklahoma losing Bedlam a week ago, it felt as if the Sooners fell completely out of the college football consciousness. West Virginia certainly won't forget about them after Saturday night, though. Brent Venables' team put a hurting on the Mountaineers in Norman, scoring seemingly whenever they wanted and doing more than enough defensively to make this a blowout. And with Oklahoma State's stunning blowout upset loss to UCF, the Sooners are once again alive for a rematch with Texas in the Big 12 title game.
12. Penn State Nittany Lions
Another spotlight game, another chapter of James Franklin disappointing the fan base. This was almost the same game as Penn State's loss to Ohio State earlier in the year. Drew Allar and the offense had nothing going for most of this game outside of a handful of plays. And while the Nittany Lions defense did an overall great job – though they were run against handily – it wasn't enough. PSU is likely heading toward a 10-2 finish once again after this performance.
11. Missouri Tigers
The Selection Committee only dropped Missouri two spots in the Top 25 after the loss to Georgia last week, which shows that there's a lot of deserved respect being given to Eli Drinkwitz's Tigers. They showed why on Saturday as they embarrassed Tennessee in a 36-7 blowout where they had their way on both sides of the ball, particularly with a career day for former walk-on Cody Schrader (321 all-purpose yards). Mizzou's hopes of playing for an SEC title are all but dead, but a New Year's Six bid is still a possibility.
Projected Top 25 College Football Playoff rankings after Week 11: No. 10-9
10. Louisville Cardinals
The one thing that Louisville absolutely can't afford to do over the end of the regular season is have another performance like the one they put forth in the stunning loss to Pitt earlier in the year, their lone defeat to this point. And yet, Jeff Brohm's team almost got caught again by one of the bottom-feeders in the ACC as they hosted lowly Virginia on Thursday night.
Louisville had very few answers for young UVA quarterback Anthony Colandrea as he threw for 300+ and rushed for 89 yards as well. With some miscues offensively from Jack Plummer and Jawhar Jordan too, Louisville found itself down 24-17 in the fourth quarter. However, they deserve credit for clawing back with some explosive plays, including the game-winning 73-yard touchdown run from Isaac Guerendo.
Now with a long week, the Cardinals will go on the road to Miami next week before finishing the year against Kentucky. They are ostensibly still alive for the Playoff, but Week 11 proved that's anything but a formality to remain intact.
9. Oregon State Beavers
And just like that, Jonathan Smith has a Top 10 team on his hands at Oregon State.
Without question, the Beavers are benefitting from a multitude of teams previously ranked ahead of them falling this week. But credit to this Oregon State group for continuing to pick up wins in the Pac-12 and doing so emphatically against weak competition. That's what we saw on Saturday as they welcomed Stanford to Corvallis by handing them a 62-17 drubbing.
Damien Martinez was the start of the show out of the Beavs backfield, rushing for just shy of 150 yards and getting into the end zone four times. The defense also showed up in a major way, picking Ashton Daniels off three times to set up the offense advantageously throughout this beatdown. As Oregon State keeps this up, though, they can be true agents of chaos as they host Washington and visit Oregon in their final two games of the regular season.
Projected Top 25 College Football Playoff rankings after Week 11: No. 8-7
8. Alabama Crimson Tide
The Alabama doubters that were quite vocal early in the season (myself probably included in that conversation) are getting awfully quiet these days. Over the past few weeks, especially in the big win over LSU a week ago, Jalen Milroe and this Crimson Tide team have been absolutely humming. That meant bad news for a struggling Kentucky team in Lexington on Saturday in Week 11.
While the Tide's defense did let up a couple of times, Milroe did no such thing. After rushing for four scores against the Tigers, his encore this week was accounting for six touchdowns in a ridiculous individual effort, finding three through the air and as many on the ground.
It still remains to be seen what the ceiling of Alabama is this season, particularly in a game like this against a Kentucky team that just might not be that good. But if the job is taking care of business with a little bit of flair, Nick Saban's team is getting that done right now.
7. Texas Longhorns (Playing vs. TCU)
You truly have to wonder if Steve Sarkisian saw the trouble that Maalik Murphy almost got Texas into a week ago and maybe told Quinn Ewers that he was ready to come back. That's probably not the case, but QB1 did return for the Longhorns on Saturday as they went on the road to face in-state rival TCU in hopes of staying on track to make it to Arlington for the Big 12 Championship Game.
Having Ewers back in the fold paid big dividends for the offense. Though he did have a turnover, he also dialed up several big plays to Xavier Worthy and his other weapons, which opened up the rest of the attack. They moved the ball almost at will against the Horned Frogs while the Texas defense returned the favor by severely limiting Josh Hoover and the TCU offense. It was a trap spot for the Longhorns and they barely tripped at all. Now the task is get past Iowa State on the road and Texas Tech at home to keep their CFP hopes alive.
Projected Top 25 College Football Playoff rankings after Week 11: No. 6-5
6. Oregon Ducks (Playing vs. USC)
Many have argued that the Oregon Ducks are simply the better team than the rival Washington Huskies, despite the head-to-head loss that they took in Seattle. Having said that, the argument holds water with how dominant the Ducks have been at just about every turn this season, beating Utah on the road 35-6, hanging 50+ on every bottom-tier Pac-12 opponent they've seen, and so on.
However, Week 11 offers a late-night trap spot for Oregon, though they surely would never take a matchup against USC lightly. Yes, the Trojans have been freefalling of late, but with the dismissal of defensive coordinator Alex Grinch, the possibility for a defensive resurgence and the presence of Caleb Williams put Dan Lanning's team in a tricky situation at the very least on Saturday night.
5. Washington Huskies
There have been very few dull moments with the Washington Huskies this season and Saturday in Seattle was no exception. Bryson Barnes and Utah moved the ball seemingly at will in the first half against the UW defense and the Utes took a 28-24 lead into halftime, which had everyone thinking that the long-forecasted cannibalization of the Pac-12 as it pertains to Playoff contender was about to begin.
Instead, Michael Penix Jr. and running back Dillon Johnson continued to march down the field and, despite some self-inflicted wounds (not the least of which was dropping the ball short of the goal-line on a would-be pick-six), the defense stepped up hugely to pull ahead and hold for a 35-28 victory at Husky Stadium. It looks like Kalen DeBoer's team might be playing a bit too much with fire, but there's still a zero in the loss column for now.
Projected Top 25 College Football Playoff rankings after Week 11: No. 4-3
4. Florida State Seminoles
Florida State faced arguably its biggest remaining roadblock to a perfect regular season on Saturday as they welcomed rival Miami to Tallahassee. It looked as if the Seminoles might run away with this one too after Keon Coleman continued a huge game with a six-yard touchdown catch (to complement a 57-yard punt return that set up that drive) that put FSU up 27-13. However, a busted coverage made things quite nerve-wracking down the stretch with the Canes closing the deficit to just one score.
Emory Williams was forced out with a gnarly arm injury on Miami's final drive as Tyler Van Dyke came in and ultimately threw the game-sealing interception.
Florida State's defense, on the whole, played well in this game outside of just a couple of plays. And we know how dangerous this offense can be with all of the weapons around Jordan Travis. They avoided this landmine and, with only North Alabama and limping Florida remaining before the ACC Championship Game, their CFP spot is looking more and more likely.
3. Michigan Wolverines
Despite all of the possible distractions around the Wolverines program and despite not having Jim Harbaugh on the sidelines, Michigan answered its first big test of the 2023 season quite emphatically. On the road in Happy Valley, Harbaugh's team ran all over Manny Diaz's defense (for 227 yards to be exact) while holding Drew Allar and Co. to just 238 yards of total offense. The end result was a 24-15 road win for Michigan that will certainly boost their resumé.
Make no mistake, it wasn't a perfect effort by any means. Michigan was held under 300 yards of total offense with OC Sherrone Moore at the helm in Harbaugh's stead as J.J. McCarthy threw for just 60 yards on eight attempts. At the same time, to be on the road in a hostile environment without the head coach and still win comfortably on the back of the defense and run game, what more can you ask for? Michigan keeps checking boxes as they keep their perfect season alive at 10-0.
Projected Top 25 College Football Playoff rankings after Week 11: No. 2-1
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
Playing a lowly Michigan State team in Columbus, the result for Saturday's Ohio State game seemed like it might've been decided before either team took the field. Yet, they still played 60 minutes worth of football and the result was as expected for the Buckeyes. Marvin Harrison Jr. ran amok with three first-half touchdowns, including his first career rushing touchdown, while the OSU defense made life hell for Katin Houser and the Spartans.
Make no mistake, Ohio State has shown some signs of improvement as the year has gone on. And anyone who is questioning the validity of Jim Knowles' defense just isn't using their eyes at this point. Having said that, the scares that the Buckeyes have had when Kyle McCord isn't presented the obvious advantage of his skill players being infinitely better than the defense he's facing, it's been a problem. This is one of the best teams in college football, but despite the committee's assertion for the first two CFP Top 25 rankings, I'm not sure they're the absolute best.
1. Georgia Bulldogs
Maybe the Selection Committee will have the guts to do the right thing this week after Georgia notched a win over Ole Miss in Athens in dominant fashion.
I pushed for Georgia to be the No. 1 team in the country last week after the win over Missouri but the committee kept Ohio State in that spot. Though the Buckeyes dominated Rutgers, the Dawgs also dominated their matchup with the Rebels, giving Kirby Smart's team back-to-back wins over Top 15 teams in the country. Carson Beck was phenomenal as he diced up this Ole Miss defense routinely, especially with the return of Brock Bowers sooner than expected.
With this victory, Georgia now has two wins better than both of Ohio State's signature victories. When you then marry the eye test with this building resumé, I don't see how Georgia isn't ranked by the committee as No. 1. They've looked more impressive and now have the signature wins to back that up. The Dawgs came into the season as No. 1, and they'll finally claim that spot in the CFP rankings.