The Celtics have their backs against the wall, facing an 0-2 series deficit to the Heat. Will they be able to claw their way back into the series tonight?
Two games into their third East Conference Finals clash in the last four years, the Miami Heat hold an improbable 2-0 series lead over the Boston Celtics as the series shifts to South Beach on Sunday for Game 3.
If you've been following the NBA this season, you're probably aware by this point that Joe Mazzula is a math guy. During the regular season, the Celtics' offense ranked second in the league in three-point shooting frequency at 44.5 percent and sixth in three-point accuracy at 37.9 pecent. Their 30 catch-and-shoot threes per game were the second most in the NBA and they converted them at 39 percent, the fifth highest rate in the league
While All-NBA selections, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown were certainly the drivers of their high-powered offense, the gas pedal all season long was the three-point shooting surrounding their two stars.
Boston's perimeter shooting prowess was on full display during the first two rounds of the postseason, as their three-point frequency of 44.8 percent was about the same as it was during the regular season, while their accuracy crept up to 39.5 percent — the best mark of any team in this postseason.
This series however, has been a different story.
The Celtics 3-point shooting will be critical to success in Game 3
In Game 1, Boston's three-point frequency was just 35.8 percent, and they shot 34.5 percent from beyond the arc — their second and third lowest marks in those respective categories this postseason.
In Game 2, they upped their three-point frequency to 44.3 percent, but shot just 28.6 percent from deep, the team's worst three-point shooting display of the postseason.
Boston is 8-1 this postseason when they shoot the same or a better percentage than their opponents from the three-point line. They are 1-6 otherwise.
It's clear that for the Celtics to turn this series around, they need to regain their mojo from the three-point line.
But has their poor shooting up to this point in the series been a result of good Miami defense or are they just missing open looks?
The honest answer is that it's been a bit of both.
The Heat's defensive rotations were on point in Games 1 and 2, and they did an excellent job providing help defense on whoever had the ball in their hands (usually, Tatum or Brown), while still closing out on their men quickly enough to make a three-point shot difficult.
They've done a good job of preventing the Celtics from getting out in transition (where they like to hunt threes), and have made life difficult for them in the half-court, toggling between zone and man defense throughout the game to throw off Boston's strategy. Per NBA.com's tracking data, 26.5 percent of Boston's three-point attempts this series have come with a defender within four feet of the shooter, up from 18.2 percent in the first two rounds — a credit to Miami's defense.
On the flip side, this is a "make or miss" league, and while Miami's defense has certainly been excellent thus far, the Celtics are also missing a lot of shots that they typically make.
Boston is taking more contested threes this series than they are accustomed to, but they are also converting these looks at a far lower rate than usual; shooting just 17.6 percent on three-point attempts when a Heat defender is within four feet of the shooter, after shooting 34.1 percent on these attempts against the Hawks and 76ers.
To make matters worse, they have also seen a dip in accuracy on three-point attempts when a defender is more than four feet away (shots which make up the majority of their three-point attempts), shooting 36.2 percent on these looks against Miami after shooting 40.5 percent in the first two rounds of the postseason.
These are exactly the type of shots that the Celtics need to take and make in order to jumpstart their offense, and given that they've been harder to come by this series, it's imperative for the Celtics to knock them down when given the opportunity.
Obviously, there's a bit of shooting luck involved here, but time is running out for the luck to swing in Boston's favor.
Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Al Horford need to get hot
Of course it all comes down to the players, and Boston has a few who have underperformed from three-point range this series.
Al Horford was the team's best three-point shooter during the regular season, shooting a career-high 44.5 percent from beyond the arc. He is shooting just 28.8 percent in the playoffs and is 1-of-8 so far in this series.
Horford's ability as a stretch-five is so important to Boston's offense as it can draw Miami's primary rim protector (either Bam Adebayo or Cody Zeller) away from the paint. If Horford is able to tap into his regular season form tonight, Miami will be in trouble.
Additionally, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown (who rank first and second in three-point attempts per game for Boston) have suffered rough shooting series as well. Tatum was 4-of-13 from three-point range in Games 1 and 2, while Brown was 2-of-13.
As the team's top two offensive options, their ability to hit shots is obviously critical to the team's success, however it's also important for them not to force their shots as well. They become much harder to guard when Boston's role players are shooting well from the perimeter as it makes it harder for their opponents to decide whether to throw extra help at them or sacrifice an open three.
Obviously, it would be nice for the Jay's to find their shooting touch, but if they can get their teammates going early on, it will make it much easier for them to be effective later on in the game.
Speaking of role players, Boston's trio of Marcus Smart, Derrick White, and Malcolm Brogdon are a fairly reliable bunch, and have actually shot pretty well from three this series, combining to shoot 38.4 percent on 10-of-26 shooting in Games 1 and 2.
Grant Williams didn't play in Game 1 but gave Boston good minutes in Game 2 (bear-poking aside), and shot 39.5 percent from three during the regular season.
These four players are more than capable of making the Heat pay for overhelping and I think we'll see them let it fly a bit more tonight as Boston tries to loosen up Miami's defense.
The Celtics are fighting for their playoff lives tonight as a 0-3 series deficit has been a death-sentence throughout the history of the league. Their ability to generate open threes, and knock them down at a high clip will be crucial elements in their attempt to fight their way back into this series.
Will Boston find their touch from the three-point line, or will Miami's defense suffocate them once again? We'll find out tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET.