We are so unbelievably back. After the Ryder Cup and a highly profitable 2023 of PGA Tour expert picks as we tackle the golf each week, I had to take a little break. But now, with the weather getting colder, I could use a weekend in Bermuda. So let's head on down to Port Royal Golf Club for the 2023 Butterfield Bermuda Championship and get back at it.
Make no mistake, the field down in Southampton Paris, Bermuda for this week's stop in the FedEx Fall won't be loaded with big names. Adam Scott headlines the field, but defending champion Seamus Power is not actually in the field. Meanwhile, there are familiar names like Brendon Todd, Akshay Bhatia, Alex Noren and others who aren't necessarily needle-movers, but are certainly players you've seen around.
So how do we bet the 2023 Butterfield Bermuda Championship? Let's find out with the return of our PGA Tour expert picks for this week.
Note: All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook unless otherwise noted. Odds will update periodically. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.
Golf betting record in 2023 through Ryder Cup (Hiatus Since): 53-153-2, +25.496 units (5-51 on outrights, 0.5 unit bets, 0.1 unit longshot bets | -2.6 units at Ryder Cup)
Butterfield Bermuda Championship expert picks: Winner, Top 10 predictions
Top 10 pick for Butterfield Bermuda Championship: Alex Smalley (+240)
It's certainly been some uneven results for Smalley in the fall swing so far this year with two starts and a T16 and T61 finish to his credit. Despite the palindrome showings, Smalley has been a world-class ball striker for much of 2023 on the PGA Tour, gaining 0.91 strokes tee-to-green over his last 40 rounds. When you then add in that he's finished T12 and T11 at the Bermuda Championship in the past two years, I like the odds for him to crack the Top 10 on a shorter golf course.
Outright pick to win the Butterfield Bermuda Championship (0.5 Units): Brendon Todd (+1800)
A former champion at this tournament, Brendon Todd is just a perfect fit for a golf course that measures only 6,800 or so yards. His lack of length off of the tee is not a negative factor for him here, which allows him to showcase his DNA as a great iron player with an even better short game. With a T6 at the Fortinet in his last start, I think he's very live to pick up another win in Bermuda.
More Butterfield Bermuda Championship picks: PGA Tour expert picks, best bets
Russell Knox to finish Top 20 (+280)
Much like Brendon Todd, Russell Knox shows up to a lot of PGA Tour tournaments at a disadvantage because of how short of a driver of the golf ball he is. That won't be an issue this week and Knox has been a dynamo on approach as of late, gaining 0.90 strokes on approach over his last 20 rounds. Knox also has three finishes of T16 or better in his last four starts in this tournament, so I love the +280 number for a Top 20 finish.
Brian Gay to finish Top 30 (+300, DraftKings)
At this point in his career, Brian Gay primarily plays on the Champions Tour and his starts on the PGA Tour haven't gone particularly well. The one exception has long been this event. He has a win and no finish worse than T12 in his last four starts (the last four years) in Bermuda. His accuracy off of the tee, strong approach game, and well-versed short game all balance out to why he fits this place at his age and that's a juicy number for only a Top 30 finish.
Brendon Todd to finish Top 10 (+200)
We're going to double down on Todd, our outright pick for the week, and also take him for a Top 10 finish as well with the +200 number next to his name. Again, this place has been a great fit for Todd's game over the years for obvious reasons with his approach play and short game despite his lack of driving distance. Even if he doesn't cash for winning, I'm confident in his form, ability, game and history at this event will all push him into the Top 10.
Longshot pick to win Butterfield Bermuda Championship (0.1 Units): Russell Knox (+10000)
Another double down, there's no way that Russell Knox should be 100/1 odds to win this tournament, so I'm going to throw him on the card as a longshot this week. At a course where driving distance will not be a deciding factor, this is the time when he could really pop and, just maybe, pick up a win as a real sleeper for the Bermuda Championship.