Saturday's Major League Baseball action features a ton of late afternoon starts for those on the East Coast, which gives us plenty of time to put some prop bets in for the action.
I have a pair of starters I'm targeting for prop plays, as well as Cincinnati Reds rookie phenom Elly De La Cruz, who hit for the cycle on Friday night.
Let's break down each play, with odds from DraftKings Sportsbook:
Best MLB prop bets today
- Bobby Miller OVER 17.5 outs recorded (-145)
- Graham Ashcraft OVER 2.5 earned runs allowed (-175)
- Elly De La Cruz OVER 1.5 total bases (-105)
Bobby Miller OVER 17.5 outs recorded (-145)
I broke down this play on Thursday in a Houston Astros-Los Angeles Dodgers series preview for Baseball Insiders.
Bobby Miller has been great this season, pitching to a 1.01 WHIP and 2.83 ERA. While he did give up seven runs in his last start, it was the only time that he allowed more than one run in an outing.
Miller has thrown at least five innings in each of his starts, registering 15, 18, 18, 18 and 17 outs recorded. I think he bounces back and clears this line against Houston on Saturday.
Graham Ashcraft OVER 2.5 earned runs allowed (-175)
Graham Ashcraft is making his first start back since coming off the injured list, and he has to face one of the best offenses in baseball.
This has been a tale of two seasons for Ashcraft, and let's just say his last seven starts are ones he's going to want to forget.
Graham Ashcraft stats
First six starts of 2023: 2-0, 2.00 ERA (3.35 FIP), Opponent BA of .202
Last seven starts of 2023: 1-5, 12.72 ERA (7.03 FIP), Opponent BA of .374
Ashcraft has allowed at least three earned runs in all seven of those outings. He's a must fade in this matchup.
Elly De La Cruz OVER 1.5 total bases (-105)
What more can you say about De La Cruz?
He's been on fire since being called up, fueling the Reds to a 12-game winning streak.
De La Cruz's elite speed allows him to turn what may be a single into two bases easily, and his hits prop is actually set at 1.5 in this game. I'll take a shot on him to get two total bases at favorable -105 odds.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.