Best MLB prop bets today (Astros should tee off on Kyle Freeland)

2023-07-04 23:54

Usually, my best MLB prop bets are all about pitchers, but today we’re taking a different approach in one game, looking at a team total in the Houston Astros-Colorado Rockies matchup.For those looking for pitcher props, don’t worry, I have a plus-money prop from DraftKings Sportsbook...

Usually, my best MLB prop bets are all about pitchers, but today we're taking a different approach in one game, looking at a team total in the Houston Astros-Colorado Rockies matchup.

For those looking for pitcher props, don't worry, I have a plus-money prop from DraftKings Sportsbook for Miami Marlins starter Jesus Luzardo as well on the Fourth of July.

Let's break down the picks:

Best MLB prop bets today

Houston Astros team total OVER 4.5 runs (-145)
Jesus Luzardo to record a win (+115)

Houston Astros team total OVER 4.5 runs (-145)

This is a cupcake matchup for the Houston Astros against Colorado Rockies left-handed starter Kyle Freeland.

Freeland had a rough month of June, posting a 6.49 ERA in five starts. He allowed 32 hits and 12 walks in just 26.1 innings of work, pushing his season ERA to 4.88.

Since May 20 (eight starts), Freeland has a 7.15 ERA, 5.81 FIP and opponents are hitting .331 against him to go along with a season-long 1.42 WHIP. Not only that, but he has the No. 29 bullpen in baseball backing him up (5.03 ERA this season).

Houston is 12th in the league in OPS against lefties and tagged lefty Martin Perez for six runs in the first two innings of Monday's win against Texas. I love the Astros bats to stay hot on Tuesday.

Jesus Luzardo to record a win (+115)

Jesus Luzardo has a massive advantage on Tuesday against veteran Adam Wainwright, and I like the Marlins lefty to record the win in this game.

Wainwright has allowed at least three runs in every single one of his starts, posting a 7.45 ERA and 5.47 Fielding Independent Pitching.

Luzardo, on the other hand, has been lights out as of late, allowing just five hits and striking out 18 batters in his last two starts. The young lefty has led Miami to an 11-6 record in his 17 outings this season.

The Marlins should be able to handle this struggling St. Louis Cardinals team, which has been much worse against lefties this season than it was last season, ranking 15th in OPS. I think Luzardo cruises to another win on July 4.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.