The Apple Watch Ultra 2 "offers minor refinements over the last generation," we found in our review, but if you're waiting for the third-gen smartwatch to take your tracking up a notch, it may not happen until 2025.

Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo suggests in a new blog post that Apple hasn't started development of the Apple Watch Ultra 3, and if it doesn't start development by December, we most likely won't see it launch until 2025.

Devices typically take about a year to make, so Apple is running out of time to get its product started for a September 2024 launch. Without the Apple Watch Ultra refresh next year, Kuo expects a 20-30% decline in Apple Watch Ultra sales and a 10% dip in all Apple Watch shipments in 2024, to about 35 million units.

According to Kuo, Apple may be delaying the Apple Watch Ultra 3 due to needing more time to develop new health management features and address issues with microLED production. The former would suggest that Apple is struggling to add in enough new features to differentiate the Apple Watch Ultra 3 from its predecessors while the latter points to a supply chain issue.

Apple is no stranger to such issues. The company reportedly scaled back its Vision Pro headset production in July due to design problems. Tim Cook assured CBS Sunday Morning that production is on schedule, but the company is still having trouble making enough of them.

This year's Apple Watch Ultra 2 includes a new chip, a 50% brighter display, and some other goodies. However, the biggest new software feature is a double tap gesture that's also on the lower-end Series 9, while the big marketing play is its carbon neutral construction. Apple may believe that it needs something a little more revolutionary to entice customers for the Ultra 3.