Every year, we think we have the NFL pegged based on what happens in the first half of the season. We know who is good and who is not. The good teams made themselves known, the surprises solidified themselves, and the bad teams are down and pretty much out at this point. However, that's not how it works. Teams find ways to erase first-half holes with second-half runs.
Using the Playoff Status Postseason Probability meter, we see that in this week last season, the Bengals, Buccaneers, and Jaguars all had less than a 50 percent chance to make the playoffs. The Jaguars were sitting at 7 percent at this point last year. They all made the playoffs, and the Bengals even made it to the AFC Championship Game.
We'll use that same threshold this season. Which team with under a 50 percent chance to make the playoffs can make a run to the postseason? There are some interesting candidates.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Playoff Chances: 34 percent
There are moments in the NFL season that define a team. This weekend, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers watched a rookie quarterback march down the field with mere seconds left in the game to steal the lead they had just taken back, it had to harden this team a little bit. Yes, the defense got torched and definitely deserves some semblance of blame, but the game felt like fate took over.
One of two things can happen now. Either the team crawls into a hole and lets their now 3-5 season die, or they can rise up from the ashes and become a playoff contender.
There is a lot on the line for this Bucs team. Baker Mayfield is fighting for his career. If he can't get this team back on the winning stride, the team will eventually try out Kyle Trask. It's what head coach Todd Bowles will have to do since he's also fighting for his job. Mike Evans is playing for another big contract, whether in Tampa or elsewhere. A bunch of veterans are looking at their next move. There's too much here to just let it fall by the wayside, especially in the terrible NFC South.
4. Houston Texans — Playoff Chances: 36 percent
The team that put the Buccaneers season on the brink is the Houston Texans. That win put the Texans directly inside playoff contention status. The Texans are now ninth in the AFC standings, which explains their current percentages to make the playoffs. However, they've had some really good games under their belt, and C.J. Stroud is playing like a top-10 quarterback. Any team with a top-ten quarterback has a chance to make the playoffs.
The Texans face the Bengals this week, a team they are trying to usurp on their way to the playoffs. After that, the only teams currently in a playoff spot they face are the Jaguars and Browns. Cleveland is hardly a scary matchup overall (although that defense will put fear into a rookie), and the Jaguars have had inconsistent weeks. That includes Sep. 24, when the Texans drilled the Jags scoring 37 points.
This team should easily beat teams like the Titans (twice), Jets, Broncos, Cardinals, and Colts. If they get to ten wins, this is probably a playoff team. Can they win six games on their schedule? It seems almost likely.
We know what the odds say, but this is a team that, while inconsistent, is getting better every week. DeMeco Ryans is quickly becoming one of the better coaches in the NFL. Stroud looks like the best QB in his class. Tank Dell is his natural connection partner, while Nico Collins is a good compliment. Everything is trending up for the Texans, and that could include a playoff berth.
3. Atlanta Falcons — Playoff Chances: 46 percent
It might seem like this is too many AFC teams, but this year's race is going to get wild and crazy. There are too many teams still within striking distance and now enough teams separating from the pack. Which is why we needed to add another NFC team to the list. Right now, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are on this list, which would make some think it should be impossible for the Atlanta Falcons to make it. However, there's room for both teams if you think the Saints are going to miss the playoffs.
The Atlanta Falcons have been maddeningly inconsistent this season. That usually doesn't spell playoffs. They haven't taken advantage of the young stars on offense. Bijan Robinson looks like the next great running back one week, and then he's barely getting carries the next. Arthur Smith has been seriously criticized for his use of Robinson so far. It follows the use of Kyle Pitts and Drake London, two other very talented offensive players the Falcons used high picks on.
The hope with this pick is the Falcons learn from their mistakes and set new quarterback Taylor Heinicke up for success. Heinicke is really the key to the Falcons' playoff chances. It's pretty clear that Desmond Ridder can't hack it as a starter. Heinicke has already been in the playoffs before. Might as well ride the guy with experience.
This once again comes down to the schedule. The Falcons remaining games are Cardinals, Saints, Jets, Bucs, Panthers, Colts, Bears, and Saints to end the season. Of the future games, the Falcons are favorites in four of six (no line is out on the Bears or last Saints game yet). They still have two games with the Saints, a team they are trying to beat in the standings. Everything is really falling into place for the Falcons to win a wild amount of games in the second half.
2. Buffalo Bills — Playoff Chances: 32 percent
These playoff chances surprised you, right? The Buffalo Bills, a team that came into the season as one of the Super Bowl favorites, now has less than a one-third chance to make the playoffs. That's what happens when a team loses to the Bengals, another team fighting for a playoff spot. This is a team with Josh Allen at the peak of his powers. Stefon Diggs is having an amazing season. This is still a really good defense. What is worrisome is the coaching staff. It's not a bad coaching staff, but it is a desperate coaching staff. If things don't turn around, Sean McDermott, Ken Dorsey and the rest of that staff will be looking for work.
Let's look at the facts. This is still an incredibly talented offense that is a perennial playoff team. What they do in the playoffs notwithstanding, the Bills always perform in the regular season. They haven't missed the postseason since 2018. This is largely the same team in place. While there have been a few injuries, it should be simple to get back into this.
What's hurting this prediction is the Bills' schedule. They still have the Chiefs, Eagles, Cowboys, Dolphins, and Chargers to play. If they win half of those games and beat the teams they should (Broncos, Jets and Patriots), they finish the season either 10-7 or 11-6. The latter obviously is enough to make the postseason, but does 10 wins get you in the AFC picture? And that's assuming they can avoid another bad loss.
It's scary right now, but the Bills seem like they should have a much better chance to make the postseason than this. If they lose this week against the Broncos, then they'll be completely off this list.
1. Cincinnati Bengals — Playoff Chances: 44 percent
This one feels like cheating, but right now the Cincinnati Bengals have a less than 50-50 chance to make the playoffs according to this analysis. We don't trust those numbers. Right now, the Bengals are in a playoff spot. They are the seventh seed in the AFC. Sure, the Baltimore Ravens have built a 1.5-game lead in the AFC North, but the Bengals have a few avenues to make the postseason.
The Bengals are playing their best football right now. They beat up on the Bills last weekend despite getting a small output from Ja'Marr Chase. They showed taking out their best weapon can't stop them anymore. The early-season injury for Joe Burrow doesn't seem to be an issue anymore. He's been great since the bye week and once again looks like the second-best quarterback in the NFL.
The real reason the Bengals deserve better odds. Look at the teams sitting in a playoff spot ahead of the Bengals. The Matt Canada-led offense of the Pittsburgh Steelers and The Deshaun Watson-led offense of the Cleveland Browns. There are a few opportunities here. They play the Steelers twice still this season, and they are massive favorites in both games. They also have a game against the Browns on the schedule at the end of the season, but those odds aren't out yet.
The Bengals have everything going for them in terms of a playoff route. It would floor most analysts if they missed. The numbers seem off there, and any bettor will tell you to jump on the numbers that seem a little off.