For the second straight season, the Philadelphia Phillies put themselves in position to win the World Series. Unlike a year ago, however, Rob Thomson & Co. failed to reach the Fall Classic.
Despite holding series leads of 2-0 and 3-2 over the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Phillies surprisingly dropped the final two games of the NLCS at home. To put into perspective just how impressive Arizona was, the Phillies had gone 12-2 at Citizens Bank Park during these last two MLB postseasons and 11-0 in NL playoff games.
But what's done is done, and it's time for the Phillies and their fans to look ahead to next season. On paper, the 2024 campaign looks promising as the vast majority of the key players who helped the Phillies reach a second straight NLCS are set to return.
With that said, however, Dave Dombrowski will have plenty of decisions to make when MLB free agency begins. As mentioned, most of his big names will be back in 2024. But there are a few high-profile players set to hit the market, most notably Aaron Nola, Rhys Hoskins, Craig Kimbrel, and Michael Lorenzen.
While Dombrowski will likely engage in talks with each of those players, he'll obviously also be looking to bring in some new blood. And just to keep things a touch more interesting, that's where we'll put our focus today.
And let's just get this out of the way at the start. You're not going to see Shohei Ohtani on this list. Would the Phillies love to have him? Of course. Who wouldn't? But as they'll already be paying six players $20 million or more next year, I don't see them spending the half a billion dollars it might take to bring "Shotime" to the City of Brotherly Love.
So, outside of baseball's best player, who could Philadelphia reasonably target this winter?
5. Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP
This first one is a bit tricky as Eduardo Rodriguez would have to opt out of the five-year/$77 million deal he signed with the Detroit Tigers ahead of the 2022 season.
With that said, most expect him to do just that as he'll likely get more in free agency than what he'd make in the Motor City the next three years, especially since he just had the best overall season of his career.
In 26 starts for the Tigers, the lefty went 13-9 with a career-best 3.30 ERA (more than an entire run lower than Aaron Nola, by the way) and recorded 143 strikeouts in 152.2 innings.
The 30-year-old reportedly wants to play on the East Coast to be closer to family, so Philly could have a leg up on what's sure to be several suitors throughout the league. Rodriguez may be a touch too costly for the Phillies, but he'd undoubtedly be a great addition to the starting rotation.
4. Sonny Gray, RHP
A cheaper option for the Phillies could be veteran Sonny Gray.
Yes, he's a little older, as he'll be 34 when the 2024 season begins. But the right-hander seemingly still has plenty left in the tank.
While Gray went just 8-8 with the Minnesota Twins this past season, he earned the third All-Star nod of his career and posted a 2.79 ERA in 32 starts, his lowest since the year he finished third in the AL Cy Young vote in 2015 with the Oakland A's (2.73).
Actually, his ERA has been relatively steady over the past five years with the Reds and Twins despite playing in hitter-friendly ballparks. The highest it reached in that stretch was 4.19 in 2021, his final season in Cincinnati. Again, that's still lower than what Aaron Nola posted this past year.
Compared to Nola, the strikeout numbers are pretty close as well. While Nola averaged 1.046 per inning in 2023, Gray was just a little behind, as he put down 183 batters in 184.0 innings. Gray also allowed just eight home runs this past year compared to Nola's 32.
In addition, he would have zero issues playing in front of the hostile Philly faithful. And let's be honest. Not everyone can handle it. But Gray played two seasons with the Yankees. Give him a two-year deal and get the best of what he's got left.
3. Teoscar Hernandez, OF
At this point, there's a strong chance that the Phillies opt not to bring back Rhys Hoskins, who missed the entire 2023 season after suffering a torn ACL in spring training. While he's a fan favorite and a solid hitter, that's just the reality of the situation.
If Hoskins re-signs, of course, he'll be back at first, and Bryce Harper returns to the outfield. But if Hoskins goes elsewhere, Harper becomes the full-time first baseman, and the Phillies go shopping for an outfielder, which they'd likely do anyway.
One option on that front is Teoscar Hernandez, whom Philadelphia was seemingly targeting at the trade deadline this past summer.
A one-time All-Star and a two-time Silver Slugger Award winner, Hernandez had a bit of a down year in 2023 with the Seattle Mariners, slashing .258/.305/.435 with a career-worst 211 strikeouts. But he also had 26 home runs and 93 runs batted in.
The Phillies obviously have no problem employing power hitters who strike out a lot (see Kyle Schwarber), so adding Hernandez seemingly wouldn't be much of a stretch. He'll command a bit of cash but not as much as some of the other outfielders on the market.
2. Adam Duvall, OF/1B
An even cheaper option in the outfield is Adam Duvall. And the bonus here is that the 10-year veteran also has the ability to play first base, which brings in the option of moving Bryce Harper back to the outfield. Let's also not forget that Duvall won a Gold Glove just two years ago.
The big drawback here is age, as Duvall is 35. But that certainly didn't stop the Phillies from pursuing him at the trade deadline, and it shouldn't stop them from pursuing him in free agency.
Again, he'll be a cheaper option than many others, as evidenced by the fact that he played the 2023 season on a one-year/$7 million deal with the Boston Red Sox. So there's that aspect.
Another is the fact that Duvall can still contribute. Just two seasons ago, he was an All-Star and led the National League with 113 RBI.
And in 92 games with the Red Sox this past season, he slashed .247/.303/.531 with 21 home runs and 58 RBI. Take those last two numbers and apply it to 162 games, and you get 37 home runs and 102 RBI.
While obviously unlikely he'd play all 162, Duvall would undoubtedly add some right-handed pop to the Phillies' already dangerous lineup and bring some strong defense as well.
1. Cody Bellinger, OF
Okay, so this last one might be a bit farfetched, but imagine the current Philadelphia lineup and then add a resurgent Cody Bellinger to it.
The biggest obstacle in this scenario will obviously be money. While the 2019 National League MVP played the 2023 season with the Chicago Cubs for only $12 million, he'll command so much more once he officially opts out of the mutual option on his contract for next year worth the same amount. And make no mistake about it. He will opt out and test the market.
And why wouldn't he?
After a few down seasons to close out his six-year run with the Dodgers, Bellinger bounced back in 2023 with the North Siders, slashing .307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs and 97 RBI.
There are concerns that he won't be able to consistently put up those same numbers over the next few years. So there are risks in paying the $22-$25 million per season that he might command. But with as much protection as he'd have in the Phillies' lineup, Bellinger could be worth that risk.