The Miami Dolphins are looking to take the next step under Mike McDaniel. Here's what a dream season would look like.
Last season ended with a first-round exit for the Miami Dolphins. High expectations rammed head first into injury complications and a loaded conference schedule. The AFC is a murderer's row of contenders at the moment; the Dolphins are looking to make a dent.
There is renewed hope around the Dolphins entering 2023. There's no denying the offensive ceiling when Miami is at full strength. With the fastest receiving corps in football and a certified bomber in Tua Tagovailoa, no team is better equipped, on paper, to combat the Chiefs' big-play offense.
The Dolphins also made several key additions on the defensive end and in the special teams department. Mike McDaniel's squad is looking to leave its one-way reputation behind. If that does indeed happen, it's not hard to imagine Miami turning some heads in the AFC East.
No. 5 Dolphins dream scenario: Above average defense, special teams
The Dolphins' pass defense and special teams ranked near the bottom of the NFL last season. Miami has the offensive firepower to hang with anybody, but another season of putrid defense will doom Mike McDaniel's squad to another bottom seed and first-round exit.
Miami made the necessary moves to sure up the defense around the pass-rushing tandem of Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips. The big splash, of course, was adding Jalen Ramsey, arguably the best defensive back in football. He's going to have a pronounced impact on the Dolphins' ability to slash the opposition's receiving yards.
There's also the arrival of new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, who's not far removed from a three-year stint as Denver's head coach. He consulted the Eagles' top-ranked defense last season and he has nine years of DC experience between San Francisco (2011-14) and Chicago (2015-18). The mastermind behind the Bears' vaunted mid-10s defense is a strong bet to improve Miami's situation.
It's exceedingly hard to win anything of note without a high-level defense, even with the offensive explosion currently happening around the NFL. The Dolphins don't need the best stopping force in the world, but anything shy of top-10 probably excludes Miami from the upper tier of contention in the AFC. Kansas City, Buffalo, and Cincinnati can all string together stops when it matters most; can the Dolphins do the same?
No. 4 Dolphins dream scenario: Mike McDaniel wins Coach of the Year
The Dolphins made the controversial decision to hire Mike McDaniel as head coach with one (1) year of NFL coordinator experience. His first season was bumpy for reasons beyond his control, but the 40-year-old is burdened with high expectations as one of the youngest coaches in the league. He was pegged as the next Sean McVay; can the Yale grad-turned-Miami head man deliver?
McDaniel gave fans plenty to write home about last season. The Dolphins finished with the league's No. 4 passing offense despite four missed games from Tua Tagovailoa. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle were seamlessly incorporated in McDaniel's high-octane system, with the young head coach unafraid to take on play-calling duties in his first year on the job.
That's ultimately why the Dolphins invested in McDaniel. He's supposed to be one of the brightest offensive minds in the sport, a true revolutionary who can keep Miami ahead of the curve. With a year of trial and error under his belt, what better goal to strive for in 2023 than Coach of the Year?
If McDaniel can take home the league's most prestigious coaching honor, that will naturally imply across-the-board success for Miami. McDaniel won't win Coach of the Year if the Dolphins are the No. 7 seed again. It will take cultivating Tagovailoa into a top-shelf QB, balancing the offense with a sturdy run game, and working with Fangio to get the defense to a respectable level.
The Dolphins are right on the precipice of something special. McDaniel delivered on a lot of the hype around his offensive intellect and play-calling spirit last season. A big year-two jump could cement him as one of the best head coaches in the NFL.
No. 3 Dolphins dream scenario: Tua Tagovailoa makes first Pro Bowl
Few football actions better embody the poetry of motion than Tua Tagovailoa cueing up one of his signature lefty dimes. He's the NFL's preeminent deep ball specialist; the 25-year-old averaged the highest yards per attempt (9.7) and yards per catch (13.7) of any QB in the league last season.
The Dolphins have built their offense around Tua's uniquely strong arm. Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and now Chosen Anderson are three of the fastest humans on the planet. All three will be frequently peppered with deep downfield passes from Tagovailoa. The Dolphins were exceedingly bold under McDaniel last season, and that's the exact strategy Tua demands. He's a brave and exciting QB.
If last season was any indication, Tua is going to be one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. He posted the league's best QB rating (105.5) and highest touchdown percentage (6.3). He threw for 25 touchdowns and 3,548 yards despite being limited to only 13 appearances because of injury. The idea of a full training camp into a healthy 17-game season from Tagovailoa is a tantalizing thought.
Of course, injuries are the big swing factor for the Alabama product. Tagovailoa suffered several disconcerting head injuries last season. The Dolphins were not exactly careful with their prized QB's health and it has led to lingering concern about his future in the league. Tagovailoa has a long list of injuries on his ledger, and now there are persistent concussions to worry about. Some things are more important than football, and Tua's long-term health is one of them.
If Tua can stay on the field, the numbers will come naturally. He's singularly gifted with the personnel and coaching staff needed to accentuate his strengths. If Tagovailoa can crack the AFC Pro Bowl roster — in a conference that includes names like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Aaron Rodgers, Justin Herbert, and Lamar Jackson, to list a few — it will be a pretty good indication of how good the Dolphins are.
No. 2 Dolphins dream scenario: Top scoring offense in NFL
With 44 total touchdowns, Miami was the No. 9 scoring offense in the NFL last season. The Chiefs were No. 1 with 61 touchdowns, followed closely by the Eagles with 59. If Miami wants to vault all the way to the top, it will take serious growth across the board.
That said, this isn't totally outside the realm of possibility. The Chiefs are basically cemented as the preseason favorite in this category for the rest of Patrick Mahomes' career, but the NFL is perpetually unpredictable and few teams possess the offensive weaponry and aggressive approach that Miami does.
Tagovailoa played 13 games last season. Again, if he can play all 17 games, that alone should bolster the offensive numbers a fair amount. Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thomspon were varying degrees of competent in reserve, but there's a wholly different dynamism to the offense when Tua has the reins.
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are two of the best receivers in football; the Dolphins already awarded Hill with the most expensive receiver contract in NFL history at four years, $120 million. Both will receive a steady diet of deep targets and red-zone looks. Waddle is only 24 and entering his third NFL season. He's still getting better.
In a perfect world, the Dolphins' primary weapons are all healthy and, without much problem, Miami has one of the NFL's top passing offenses. What could keep Miami from reaching this specific goal, however, is the run game. The Dolphins brought back last season's halfback corps of Jeff Wilson Jr. and Raheem Mostert, which didn't exactly elate the fanbase. There are also questions about the offensive line, which failed to protect Tua on far too many occasions last season.
If the Dolphins can squeeze enough production out of the run game to set the table for Tua's deep throws to Hill and Waddle — not to mention a bustling supporting cast of receivers like Chosen Anderson, Cedrick Wilson Jr., and Durham Smythe — Miami could easily sneak into the No. 1 spot in the TD column.
No. 1 Dolphins dream scenario: Win the AFC East
A tall task, no doubt. But this is what the Dolphins are built for. Why else pay Tyreek Hill $120 million? Why spend big to acquire Jalen Ramsey? Why bet so boldly on a young coach with no experience and primarily academic accolades? Because you're trying to win, and you're trying to win right now.
The Dolphins absolutely have the personnel to win their division. Tagovailoa at full strength is a top-10 quarterback lock, maybe verging on top-five. Hill and Waddle can stretch defenses thin and slice them to pieces with their speed and versatility on the outside. The running back corps isn't great, but it's reasonably deep and varied in terms of skill set.
On the defensive end, Bradley Chubb anchors a considerable pass rush that was bolstered through free agency. Ramsey will immediately salvage one of the sorriest defensive backfields in the country and potentially transform the Dolphins from sieves to stoppers. It's a little too bold to say the Dolphins will have the best defense in the division, but all it takes for this to become an achievable reality is a good defense, not a great defense.
The primary hurdle for Miami is their competition. The Buffalo Bills went 13-3 last season and everybody will pick the Bills to repeat as division champs. Josh Allen is maybe the second-best QB working today, the Bills have an overflowing pool of offensive talent as well, and the defense is on much more stable ground than Miami's defense.
That said, it's hard to overstate how dynamic the Dolphins' offense can be at full strength. Tua doesn't quite possess Allen's capacity for scrambling and improvisation, but he can match Allen in a throwing contest any day. The Dolphins' offense poses the most explosive vertical threat in the NFL. All it takes is health, continuity, and a little luck for the Dolphins to shock the world here. It's improbable, but far from impossible.
And hey, we're dreaming here. Why not dream big?