Even if you don't want to overreact in either direction, it's hard to imagine not thinking that Houston Texans rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud has looked like the goods. On Sunday in Week 5, he threw for 249 yards, led a late go-ahead touchdown drive (though the defense made that for naught) and set the NFL record for most passes without an interception to start a player's career.
Sure, the Texans might only be off to a 2-3 start, but that hasn't been the fault of Stroud. The rookie signal-caller is averaging just shy of 300 yards per game and has seven touchdowns to his zero interceptions. And if you believe in the eye test, he's wholeheartedly looked the part with his poise, decision-making, and playmaking.
Yes, the Texans took Stroud No. 2 overall in the NFL Draft after Bryce Young came off the board first. So ostensibly, only the two teams that were at the No. 1 pick had a chance to get Stroud. But with the pre-draft uncertainty about which QBs would go where, it's hard to believe that none of these four teams didn't either draft or at least try to trade up to take the Ohio State product.
4. Chicago Bears should've stayed at No. 1 to draft C.J. Stroud
On one hand, you have to respect the belief from Chicago Bears general manager Ryan Poles and the rest of the front office for wanting to give Justin Fields every opportunity to be the franchise quarterback he was initially drafted to be. And to be fair, in the past two games, Fields has looked much better, most notably as a passer.
Having said that, the jury remains out as to whether or not Fields is actually a viable franchise QB. He's been maddeningly inconsistent or ineffective as a passer in his career to this point. Adding D.J. Moore to the offense this season appears to have helped a great deal, but some of the issue remains Fields himself.
The Bears, of course, were sitting at the top of the NFL Draft at season's end last year, but ultimately traded that selection to the Carolina Panthers instead. In a vacuum, that decision makes sense. They wanted another look at Fields in a perceived better situation, accrue draft capital to replenish a bad overall roster and to potentially set up a future replacement for Fields, and simply not hit a hard reset just yet.
Hindsight being 20/20, though, the Bears blew it. Stroud is already looking like a better NFL quarterback than Fields five games into his career. Even worse, one could argue that the supporting cast is worse than the one in Chicago. As such, it's hard not to feel like a massive missed opportunity by Poles and the Bears regime.
3. Carolina Panthers whiffed taking Bryce Young over C.J. Stroud
Now we have the franchise that ultimately traded up to the No. 1 pick with the Bears, the Carolina Panthers. Panthers owner David Tepper had longed to make an aggressive move to acquire a franchise quarterback and leaped at the opportunity to do so with the No. 1 overall pick. They ultimately landed on former Alabama signal-caller Bryce Young.
Though this isn't entirely on Young, the Panthers rookie has been less than stellar as Carolina has gotten out of the gate with a dismal 0-5 start. Young missed one game with an injury -- which could be argued adds more concern to his biggest pre-draft knock, his size holding up in the NFL -- but has also thrown for just 750 yards in four games with five touchdowns and four interceptions.
Young could still very well end up being a franchise quarterback for Carolina. For my money, he was the best quarterback in the 2023 NFL Draft class, which he showcased week after week for Alabama. At the same time, though, the concerns about his size are real and, more importantly, he's not in the best of situations with the Panthers right now.
So when you then see what Stroud has done to begin his career, it's quite a contrast between the No. 1 and 2 picks and how they've performed. That's so much the case that you have to wonder if the Panthers might be a more competitive team had they followed Josh McCown's clear pre-draft crush and drafted Stroud.
2. Las Vegas Raiders miscalculated QB by not trading up for C.J. Stroud
For reasons that still remain unclear, after the Las Vegas Raiders moved on from Derek Carr, they did not really even attempt to make a move for the franchise's future at quarterback.
Instead, the Raiders front office -- and almost surely head coach Josh McDaniels -- elected to land Jimmy Garoppolo in free agency to helm the offense. That has, to put it bluntly, worked out exactly as you would've expected to this point. Vegas is off to a 1-3 start to the season, the offense has struggled to find its footing, and Garoppolo has already missed a game due to injury.
Just about every part of that was predictable. And every part of that also makes it even more frustrating than it was in the moment that they weren't making a move for a quarterback, specifically in the draft, this past offseason. Seeing Stroud perform so well in his rookie season, that only adds to that feeling of missed opportunity.
Admittedly, there's an argument to be made that looking to trade up to the No. 1 pick with the Panthers would be tough for the Raiders to swallow. They gave up substantial draft capital in the Davante Adams trade last offseason and would have to give up even more to trade up from No. 7.
Having said that, not doing so, going forward with Jimmy G, and even taking Tyree Wilson at No. 7, who has been objectively awful thus far as a rookie, is not a good look for the Silver and Black.
1. New England Patriots have to regret not even trying for C.J. Stroud
If the cost would've been high for the Raiders and was also high for the Panthers in the actual trade up to No. 1, then it would've been absolutely astronomical for the New England Patriots. Picking at No. 17, it would've always been an uphill battle to try into trade into the range to draft one of the top quarterbacks, Stroud obviously included.
After what we've seen from Mac Jones this season, however, it's hard not to think that it still might've been worth it for Bill Belichick to ignore his past process and make such an aggressive move.
Jones has already been benched twice through five games this season in New England. In the past two weeks, he's led the offense to completely hapless performances that ultimately led to the two worst losses of the Belichick era, including a 34-0 shutout against the Saints in Week 5. The Pats hadn't been shut out since 2016 prior to Sunday.
Even if the Patriots don't have a great group of pass-catchers, that group is improved from last season. The offensive coordinator is also improved with Bill O'Brien joining the staff this offseason. The one constant in the lasting lack of performance has been Jones. He's clearly not the guy at this point and New England had to have realized that at some point.
Despite how costly it would've been in terms of draft capital, the Patriots needed a viable quarterback to get back to the playoffs, or at least to even have that chance. Stroud has proven to be that, and New England is left playing the "what if" game while Mac Jones stumbles through 2023.