It should come as no surprise that Arizona Diamondbacks ace Zac Gallen will take the mound when the team faces the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 1 of the NLCS on Monday night. Gallen started in the All-Star game and made a strong Cy Young case this season, but he has never played in a game of this magnitude.
To add to the monumental circumstances, Gallen will be traveling home. He grew up in the Camden area, just 11 miles from Citizens Bank Park. He will have family in the crowd, so maybe the pressure is alleviated. Or, maybe, it's ratcheted up even higher.
All we know is that Gallen will not receive a warm welcome home on Monday night. The Phillies' crowd is notoriously ruthless and the past couple weeks have been a particularly cocky stretch for the hometown crazies. A dominant two-game home stand against the division-rival Braves in the NLDS was the perfect warmup for baseball's most vociferous crowd.
Gallen will hear it from Phillies fans from the moment he steps on the field. And, to make matters worse, he's facing a red-hot lineup that has been spraying dingers all over the place all postseason — in a very hitter-friendly ballpark.
He's good enough to weather the storm, but these batters could spoil Gallen's much-anticipated homecoming.
4. Brandon Marsh
Brandon Marsh doesn't get much credit for the Phillies' explosive offense, but he knocked one out of the park in Game 3 of the Braves series and he has a fair amount of career success against Gallen — 2-for-4 with a couple singles.
It's a small sample size, but Marsh is swinging the bat with a lot of positive momentum these days. He was 2-for-4 in the Phillies' closeout win against the Braves and he's coming off his best regular season to date (.277/.372/.458 with 12 HR and 60 RBI in 477 AB).
Gallen will have his mind preoccupied with the top of the Phillies' lineup, where more traditionally explosive bats lurk. By the time Marsh comes to the plate in the eight-spot, however, he could be primed to jump on a mistake from Gallen if the pitcher takes his foot off the gas pedal.
3. Trea Turner
Trea Turner has more experience than any Phillies hitter against Gallen, dating back to his days with the Diamondbacks' division rival in Los Angeles. Turner is 4-for-18 against Gallen for his career; not exactly great, but experience could be a boost here. He has seen Gallen's stuff more than any other Phil.
Of course, the opposite is also true. Gallen has pitched to Turner on several occasions and knows how to work the plate against him. Turner's career record against Gallen (.222) reflects well on the pitcher. On the other hand, Turner has taken Gallen for multiple bases twice (one double, one home run).
The determing factor here is Turner's extremely hot bat. After a slow start to the season, Turner has been cooking since the All-Star break. Ever since that fateful standing ovation at CBP amid his most serious struggles, Turner has looked much more like the player Philadelphia gave $300 million to over the summer.
Turner homered in Games 3 and 4 of the NLDS, taking Spencer Strider deep with a left-field rope in the closeout win. He was 4-for-4 in that game, finishing a triple shy of the cycle. He doesn't get the same credit as other bats near the top of Philadelphia's lineup, but Turner is a contact machine who has possessed more power than usual behind his swings lately.
Keep an eye out.
2. Nick Castellanos
There isn't a hotter bat left in the MLB playoffs than Nick Castellanos... unless we want to mount an argument for one of his teammates. Casty went off in Games 3 and 4 of the NLDS, hitting two home runs in each game. He became the first player ever to get a multiple-base hit off a 100 MPH fastball from Spencer Strider. He is quite literally making history right now.
Castellanos doesn't have a great career record against Gallen (1-for-4 with a single, a walk, and a strikeout), but it hardly matters. He has momentum on his side, not to mention a rabid crowd hanging on every swing of his bat.
There has been a push to move Castellanos into the cleanup spot in place of the struggling Alec Bohm, but Rob Thomson is sticking with his guns for Game 1 of the NLCS. Castellanos will remain in the seven-spot. The urge to move Casty up is understandable — all four of his NLDS homers with solo shots, so it would be nice to get his hot bat in a position to knock more runs home. Still, there's equal risk in tinkering with the delicate balance of things. Castellanos is clearly comfortable with his current spot in the lineup. Plus, it's probably smart to avoid tainting Bohm's confidence.
Gallen will face the Phillies' early gauntlet (Scwarber, Turner, Harper, Bohm, Stott, Realmuto) before Castellanos steps to the plate. Coming off a productive second season with Philadelphia (.272/.311/.476 with 29 HR and 106 RBI), Casty might be the most intimidating No. 7 hitter in the league. He's definitely better than Kevin Pillar.
1. Bryce Harper
Who else?
Bryce Harper is 4-for-12 with a double, a walk, and a strikeout against Gallen in his career. It's hard to get much better than .333 over such an extended sample size. Harper knows how to get bat on ball against Gallen. Factor in the Phillies' home crowd, the absurd positive momentum of Harper's recent play, and his general tendency to rise to the occasion on this stage... and Gallen might want to tread carefully when Harper steps to the plate.
Harper totaled six hits, three home runs, and five RBIs during the Phillies' four-game smackdown of the Braves in the NLDS. He followed up his lone mistake — a base-running snafu at the end of Game 2 — with a trademark two-home run showcase in Game 3. He is one of the best hitters in baseball, but more importantly, he's wired for postseason baseball. He has the clutch gene, and his confidence doesn't waver under pressure.
Gallen is a tremendous pitcher. The dude gets nasty movement on his pitches and he's one of the best in the business when it comes to mixing speeds and locations.
Gallen kept Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and a loaded Dodgers lineup at bay in Game 2 of the NLDS. He has looked perfectly at home on the postseason stage; he could very well be the best pitcher the Phillies face in their quest to repeat as National League champs.
Just don't count on that mattering much to Harper (or the red-hot Phillies as a whole). We have seen Harper step to the plate, literally and figuratively, in big moments time and time again. He generally doesn't whiff. Gallen will bring his best stuff, but it may not be enough. Especially if he lets the noise of the crowd or the brightness of the lights get to him.