As of this writing, Arthur Smith's team owns a 4-6 record and is in third place in the NFC South. The team comes off a rough 25-23 loss at Arizona, the team's third straight setback
That doesn't paint a promising picture when it comes to the Atlanta Falcons playoff chances in 2023. Then again, the team resides in the NFC South, a division that did not produce a team with a winning record in 2022. After 10 weeks of play this season, no club amongst the four is above .500.
Stranger things have happened when it comes to reaching the Super Bowl. That's because it's not how you start, but how you finish. So how could the struggling Falcons pull this off in a conference that boasted only six teams with winning records entering Week 11?
3. Balanced offensive attack
It starts up front when you talk about the Atlanta Falcons offensive attack. The team has assembled one of the better fronts in the league. Earlier this month, Pro Football Network's Dalton Miller ranked the team's unit at No. 10 in the league.
Zoltán Buday of Pro Football Focus does a weekly ranking of the men in the trenches and his latest evaluation (entering Week 10) has the Falcons' offensive front as the third-best in the NFL.
The NFL's seventh-best running game, averaging 120,4 yards per contest, is led by the 1-2 punch of rookie Bijan Robinson (612) and Tyler Allgeier (402). The duo has combined for 1,014 of the club's 1,304 yards on the ground. It's worth noting that Robinson and Allgeier each have 125 carries.
Be it Desmond Ridder or Taylor Heinicke, Smith's offense has totaled 18 touchdowns – equally divided by rushing (9) and passing (9). This unit may be just hitting its stride and that could be a huge advantage down the stretch.
2. Improved defensive unit
Ryan Nielsen's group has not looked like the NFL's eight-ranked defense in recent weeks. In their last two losses, the Falcons allowed both the Vikings and Cardinals to orchestrate late scoring drives which amounted to a 31-28 loss to Minnesota followed by a 25-23 setback at Arizona. In Week 8, Atlanta's secondary was torched by the Titans' combination of rookie quarterback Will Levis and veteran wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins.
During the team's 4-3 start, Nielsen's defensive unit allowed only a dozen offensive touchdowns. The Falcons gave up a total of 133 points, an average of 19.0 points per contest. During the club's current three-game skid, Atlanta defenders have permitted opposing offenses to reach the end zone nine times. The team has given up a disappointing 28.0 points per outing.
The Falcons are off in Week 11, and this is the side of the ball that needs to be addressed. The team showed early on that this was a better defense than the porous unit from 2022. That team gave up the sixth-most total yards per game and was ranked 25th in the NFL vs. the pass.
It's back to basics for a group that includes talented veterans such as defensive lineman Calais Campbell, linebacker Kaden Elliss and safety Jessie Bates III. All three were free-agent additions this offseason and the latter pair are tied for the team lead with 73 tackles. Bates also leads the team with three interceptions.
1. Recent history
It is somewhat inexplicable, but it is simply a fact.
Dating back to 2015, there have been six teams to reach the Super Bowl after not producing a winning campaign the previous season. In fact, five of those clubs managed the feat after a losing season. The Falcons reached Super Bowl LI in 2016 after an 8-8 showing during Dan Quinn's debut with the team a year earlier.
Even more interesting is the fact that five of these examples have come from the NFC. The 2015 Carolina Panthers were 7-8-1 one year earlier and went on to face the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl 50. The Philadelphia Eagles finished last in the NFC East with a 7-9 mark, then rebounded to go 13-3 and eventually capture Super Bowl LII.
Two years later, Kyle Shanahan's San Francisco 49ers won the NFC West with a 13-3 record in 2019 after finishing in the division basement the previous year. The team came up short in Super Bowl LIV to the Chiefs, 31-20. The following year, the wild-card Buccaneers were Super Bowl LV champions after finishing with a 7-9 mark in 2019.
Just two seasons ago, the Bengals went from 4-11-1 in 2020 to 10-7 and AFC North champions a year later. Zac Taylor's club fell to the Los Angeles Rams, 23-20, in Super Bowl LVI at SoFi Stadium.
The Falcons were dead last in the NFC South in 2022 with a 7-10 record. Could recent conference history repeat itself?