The Phoenix Suns will be under the spotlight next season as Kevin Durant looks to win his third NBA championship. Four members of the starting five are set in stone. The fifth spot, not so much.
The Phoenix Suns are going to score a lot of points next season. There are valid concerns about the defense, about Deandre Ayton's limited enthusiasm, about the overall depth, but none of that will matter so long as the core trio of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal stays healthy.
Okay, not true. It will matter, especially in the playoffs. But the regular season should be an offensive showcase from Phoenix. Even with rest built into the schedule for Durant and Beal, the Suns will have at least two of the world's best offensive players on the floor more often than not. Beal is the "weak" appendage here, but he averaged north of 30 points per game twice in the last four years. He's one of the league's most versatile offensive guards and he is going to feast on defenses who are more concerned with Durant and Booker, arguable top-10 NBA players.
The Suns' front office went to work over the summer to surround their core triumvirate with a decent supporting cast. A bunch of veteran minimum contracts can only get you so far, but Phoenix has several bench players who can be confidently deployed in a postseason setting. From stable vets to upside plays, the bench unit has it all.
The big question with Phoenix is, who will be Frank Vogel's fifth starter? There's no way around Beal, Booker, Durant, and Ayton. Those four are locked in until Ayton gets traded, if that ever actually happens. The fifth spot could go any number of ways depending on what Vogel needs. In fact, it wouldn't be shocking if Phoenix changes its fifth starter on a game-by-game basis to fit the matchup.
For our purposes, let's assume that last season's group gets the first crack, with Beal replacing Chris Paul at point guard. That would mean Josh Okogie is the nominal fifth starter. These players represent his biggest competition for that spot.
No. 3 player who could break into Suns starting lineup: Keita Bates-Diop
Frankly, the Suns will struggle to find a better fit than Keita Bates-Diop. He checks more boxes across the board than any other Suns reserve. He's a good shooter, check. He's probably the best wing defender on the team behind Okogie, check. He's switchable, he's an adept cutter, he's smart. Check, check, another check.
The Suns added plenty of shooters over the summer, but Bates-Diop is the only shooter who profiles as a truly above-average defender. Okogie is a brilliant defender, but he's smaller than KBD and he's a non-entity on offense. Bates-Diop will start the season with the second unit, but there's a strong chance he doesn't stay there.
The 6-foot-9 forward out of Ohio State averaged 9.7 points and 3.7 rebounds on .508/.394/.793 splits in 21.7 minutes per game for San Antonio last season. He started in 42 of 67 appearances and was a source of veteran stability for a team plagued with youth and defensive fragility.
The Suns will offer KBD a much brighter spotlight and the opportunity to compete for a championship. He's not the most explosive athlete, but Bates-Diop is light on his feet. He switches comfortably between multiple frontcourt positions on defense. On offense, he's a bankable spot-up shooter who frequently cuts and relocates to make himself available. Defenses will load up on Phoenix's stars, which should leave Bates-Diop with plenty of clean looks at the basket.
No. 2 player who could break into Suns starting lineup: Eric Gordon
Eric Gordon was the crown jewel of veteran minimum signings. Phoenix managed to overcome a bustling market to acquire the veteran sharpshooter, who the Clippers waived in advance of his $21 million team option for next season. It's not difficult to see the path to success for Gordon in Phoenix. He's one of the best long-distance shooters in the NBA. The Suns are going to spread the defense, then collapse it inward. It's easy money.
Gordon is special because he's not just a 3-point shooter. He's a deep 3-point shooter, capable of setting up shop several steps behind the line. It made him the perfect complement to James Harden and Chris Paul in his Houston heyday. He should find similar success in Phoenix, even if Gordon is a step slower than he once was. The Suns don't have the same rim pressure mechanism as Houston did, but the defense will collapse around Durant and Booker in the middle of the floor all the same. Gordon will be there to catch and shoot.
A quick-trigger shooter carries a lot of value for teams with stars who absorb as much offensive oxygen as Phoenix's stars. Durant, Booker, and Beal will all handle the rock and attack the defense with deliberate patience. Gordon is the pressure relief valve, the last-ditch option on the perimeter. He's not there to dribble the air out of the ball and make complex decisions. Here's there to shoot or pass, and he's comfortable in the confines of that role.
Of course, Gordon can dribble a bit. The Suns won't really need him to operate as backup point guard, but he's comfortable setting the table and initiating sets. Gordon doesn't have the quickest first step anymore but he's built like a tank. He makes good use of his broad shoulders to carve out space for finishes off drives to the rim. If the defender closes out too quickly, Gordon can penetrate and pose a varied threat.
The defensive fit is less assured, which is the biggest hurdle between Gordon and a spot in the starting five. He's strong enough to defend wings, but at 6-foot-4 and 34 years old, there are unavoidable limitations to what Gordon can accomplish on that end of the floor. The Suns are already spread thin as far as perimeter defense goes. Swapping a player like Okogie or Bates-Diop for a smaller guard might be one step too far for Frank Vogel, who has built his NBA reputation on elite defenses.
No. 1 player who could break into Suns starting lineup: Bol Bol
Probably not the best option, but easily the most fun option. The Suns will be focused on winning games next season, but the Bol signing represented a minor investment in the future. He's still 23 years old, fresh off his first semi-productive NBA season. Bol has a lot of flaws and he could struggle to hold up under Vogel's strict defensive scheming, but the primary knock on Phoenix right now is a lack of size. Insert Bol into the starting five, and all of a sudden the Suns are swimming in length.
Deandre Ayton is the kind of center Bol is best paired with in theory. Ayton hasn't always embraced his unique physical gifts, but he's built like a marble statue of Zeus and he's more than capable of handling the rigors of interior defense. Meanwhile, Bol is much too skinny to guard fives on a regular basis. He needs to be free to roam in space and weaponize his length as a help-side shot blocker.
Vogel has always built his defense around elite rim protectors. Ayton is simply not an elite rim protector. Calling Bol 'elite' is a massive stretch at this point in time, but he's blessed with a 7-foot-8 wingspan and the ability to cause a lot of issues for offensive players looking for a clean path to the rim. It's not out of the question for Vogel, who championed two-big lineups with the Lakers, to see a similar path to success with Bol and Ayton in Phoenix.
The offensive fit is a bit murky. Bol's jumper is more theoretical than actual at this point (26.5 percent on 1.6 attempts per game from 3-point range) and Ayton remains dedicated to the paint on offense, with only the occasional mid-range foray. That said, the Suns are loaded with 3-point bombers at every other position. Especially in the regular season, there's very little chance the offense stalls to the point of concern because of Bol's slim 3-point volume. His ability to sprint the floor in transition and finish vertically at the rim could be weaponized better than ever with Phoenix's breadth of playmakers.
Bol was fundamentally a mess on defense last season and the Magic benched him down the stretch in favor of more reliable options. Bol's name recognition probably outstrips his actual basketball acumen right now, but there simply aren't many players who blend Bol's length, movement ability, and skill flashes. The Suns shouldn't be afraid to give it a test run.