The Dallas Mavericks are looking to rebound from last season's dreadful finish. With Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving as headliners, it's not hard to imagine the Mavs winning a bunch of games. The question is, how will the rotation be built around them?
The Dallas Mavericks finished last season 38-44, which placed them 11th in the West after a very deliberate tank job to close out the schedule. It worked — Dallas kept its top-10 protected first-round pick to retool for next season — but any team with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving should be embarrassed by such an outcome.
One has to imagine a full training camp and a wave of roster additions will make the Mavericks more competitive in the new season. Irving is the best teammate Doncic has ever played with and the Mavs made a concerted effort to improve the god-awful defense around them.
That said, there are lingering concerns about Jason Kidd in the driver's seat. Plus, many of the same roster problems persist. Dallas has so far failed to anchor its frontcourt with a proven rim protector. Meanwhile, it's difficult to chart a path to consistent perimeter defense with Doncic and Irving sharing the floor — especially if Tim Hardaway Jr. remains in the starting five as expected.
Dallas' best-case outcome for next season probably starts with changes to the starting lineup. Newcomer Grant Williams is penciled into the first five, but Dwight Powell and Tim Hardaway feel especially vulnerable to younger, better options lurking in the second unit. Kidd hasn't always been the most flexible and innovative head coach, but Dallas fans should prepare for significant changes as the season progresses.
Dallas Mavericks player who could break into starting lineup: Richaun Holmes
For 2.5 years, Richaun Holmes was more or less the everyday starting center in Sacramento. The Kings relied on his vertical threat offensively and he was the perfect full-court sprint partner for De'Aaron Fox. Then the Domantas Sabonis trade happened and with it, Holmes' role all but ceased to exist.
Last season, Holmes averaged 8.3 minutes per game in 42 appearances. He was not part of Mike Brown's game plan. The 29-year-old was shipped to Dallas over the summer. He has one year of guaranteed money left on his contract with a $12.8 million player option for next season. Given the current market for mid-tier centers, odds are he's in Dallas for the next two seasons.
The Mavs are expected to start Dwight Powell at center due to his familiarity with Luka Doncic, according to NBA insider Marc Stein. That's all good and well, but Powell averaged fewer than 20 minutes per game last season and he doesn't protect the rim in the way Dallas needs. Holmes isn't a great defender, but he competes hard and is capable of altering shots at the rim with his athleticism. In his last fully healthy season as Kings starter (2020-21), he averaged 14.2 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks on 66.9 TS% in 29.2 minutes.
On the offensive end, Holmes should thrive in Dallas. He's a gifted rim finisher who can evade shot blockers with his elite intersection of bounce and flexibility. He's comfortable playing above the rim, but also capable of maneuvering tight spaces to finish below the rim when necessary. It shouldn't take long for him to establish enough chemistry with Doncic to outstrip whatever value the Mavs derive from Powell's seniority.
Dallas Mavericks player who could break into starting lineup: Dereck Lively II
The Mavs selected Dereck Lively with the No. 12 pick in June's NBA Draft. There wasn't a more obvious pairing of prospect and team than this, with Lively checking every box Dallas needs in the frontcourt: size, instincts, rim protection. He is the defensive anchor the Mavs desperately lacked last season.
At least, he is expected to become the defensive anchor Dallas desperately lacked. Rookie centers often face a steep learning curve in the NBA. Lively is a naturally intuitive and aware rim protector, but he faced a long adjustment period at Duke and it's fair to wonder if he will face the same hurdles in Dallas. The speed, physicality, and complexity of NBA defense is a whole different ballgame.
As a 19-year-old, Lively is expected to start the season behind Powell and Holmes in the Dallas depth chart. Listed at 7-foot-1 and 230 pounds, Lively possesses tier-one athleticism for his size. He's quick off his feet defensively and he will warp shot profiles with his 7-foot-7 wingspan, no matter the volume of expected youthful mistakes. Guards will hesitate to drive at Lively's chest and he is going to clean up the glass.
A lot of the concerns with Lively pre-draft were offensive concerns. He's essentially null and void outside the paint. That's not a death sentence for rim runners who play so easily above the rim, but Lively doesn't possess much in the way of post moves. He shies away from contact and is too reluctant to embrace hard finishes at the rim, which can lead to some awkward record-scratch moments. If Lively doesn't contribute offensively, he's not going to crack the rotation as a rookie.
The Mavs should give Lively every opportunity to earn a spot. There's a non-zero chance he's better than both Powell and Holmes out of the gates. That's not a high bar to cross. Even if he's not, Lively is the future of the position in Dallas and the Mavs would be wise to invest in his development — especially in the regular season.
Dallas Mavericks player who could break into starting lineup: Josh Green
This one feels a little bit too obvious. Even if Tim Hardaway Jr. begins the season as a starter, he probably won't finish the season as a starter. Green is already the better player, it's simply a matter of when Jason Kidd catches up with the times. Green received plenty of starting reps in the final months of the season and the results were undeniable.
Green doesn't stuff the stat sheet — he averaged 9.1 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 1.7 assists in 25.6 minutes last season — but he does his job exceedingly well. That's what Dallas needs. Players who do their jobs. Doncic and Irving offer more than enough shot creation to fuel an elite offense. In Green, the Mavs have a play finisher and quality wing defender who doesn't burden the offense with superfluous contributions.
The 22-year-old entered the NBA as a non-shooter. Last season — his third in the league — Green shot 40.2 percent on 2.8 three-point attempts per game. The volume isn't where it needs to be, but Green has worked his jumper into a reliable weapon. His effectiveness as a spot-up shooter will lead to easy spoon-fed points on the perimeter, plus it opens up the backdoor for cuts to the rim. Green is a nuclear athlete with tremendous strength. He's an elite interior finisher for his size (6-foot-5) and a frequent target of lob passes from Doncic. His instincts as a cutter, paired with a consistently improving jumper, make him a strong complement to the Mavs' core.
Green will join a lineup that is also bringing in Grant Williams, who can replace some of Hardaway's 3-point volume when the inevitable switch to Green is made. Hardaway is better suited to the sixth-man role anyway, where his defensive shortcomings are mitigated and he can provide a shot-making lift whenever one of Dallas' star guards takes a break.
What should cement Green in the starting five, however, is his defense. He has great core strength and a rangy 6-foot-10 wingspan, which allows him to cover a lot of ground on the perimeter. Green can comfortably switch one through four and he is Dallas' best bet against the elite playmakers of the world. Dallas couldn't get enough stops to win games last season. Green is a stopper, maybe the only true stopper on the roster who can survive on offense (the jury is still out on the new-and-improved Dante Exum). He's the best wing option next to Doncic and Irving.