The Boston Celtics are still frontrunners in the East, but the lineup will look vastly different next season. Who might break into the new-look starting five?
The Boston Celtics' season ended on a flat note. On the doorstep of history — one game from becoming the first team ever to come back from down 0-3 in a series — the Celtics got eviscerated on their home floor in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals. To make the sting even worse, the loss came at the hands of No. 8-seed Miami.
Now the Celtics enter the new season with a new lineup. Kristaps Porzingis has joined the fray as a defensive anchor and stretch-five. Meanwhile, the Celtics' shipped their heart and soul to Memphis, with Marcus Smart joining the Grizzlies' title chase in the West. Joe Mazzulla's group will have a vastly different feel to it next season. We just don't yet know if it will be for better or for worse.
Based on comments from Mazzulla, we have a decent understanding of what the starting five will look like next season. Derrick White is expected to fill Marcus Smart's shoes as the starting point guard. Porzingis will definitely start; will Al Horford, who started all 63 of his appearances last season, start alongside him in the frontcourt? We think so.
For our purposes, let's presume Mazzulla's baseline starting five consists of Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Al Horford, and Kristaps Porzingis. The Celtics are one of the deepest teams in the NBA, however, and there's ample room for change.
Here are three players who could feasibly crack the starting five.
No. 3 player who could break into Celtics starting five: Payton Pritchard
This is a stretch, but not an entirely implausible one. Payton Pritchard has essentially demanded a trade from Boston in search of a bigger role, but the Celtics haven't made any discernible effort to move him. Now Smart is out of the picture and it would appear that Pritchard finally has a path to minutes in Boston.
Pritchard has thrived in his limited time on the floor for Boston. The No. 26 pick in the 2020 NBA Draft, Pritchard is a career 40 percent 3-point shooter with serious dynamism pulling up off the dribble. Smaller guards tend to struggle in today's league, and Pritchard faces definite defensive challenges at 6-foot-1. That said, he's strong and scrappy with a generally favorable reputation on that end.
The Celtics have also been lacking in the traditional playmaking department for a while. Both Jayson Tatum and especially Jaylen Brown are flawed decision-makers with the ball. Smart made serious strides but he was never a natural-born point guard. Neither is Derrick White, for that matter.
Boston could see value in Pritchard's ability to set the table, run pick-and-rolls, and collapse the defense. Pritchard doesn't have the most explosive first step, but he's a poised playmaker who loves to probe the middle of the defense. He's a constant threat to pull-up and stick a jumper in his defender's face, and he frequently made advanced passing reads at Oregon. The opportunities have been spread thin in Boston — his minutes have declined steadily in each of his three NBA seasons — but those are attributes the Celtics' offense would benefit from in theory.
It would take a very specific set of circumstances to launch Pritchard into the starting five, but if the Celtics find themselves lacking confidence in the two-big approach around Porzingis and the desire is to keep Brogdon with the second unit, Pritchard could be the logical next man up.
No. 2 player who could break into Celtics starting five: Malcolm Brogdon
If the Celtics decide to pivot from two bigs to two guards, the more likely outcome is Malcolm Brogdon shedding his sixth man label and joining the primary unit. The reigning Sixth Man of the Year figures to play a prominent role in the Celtics' offense either way, especially after the Smart trade.
There are lingering injury concerns with Brogdon, who the Celtics attempted to trade as part of the Porzingis deal before concerns over his medical information got in the way. The Celtics will need to insure Brogdon is healthy and consistently available before elevating him to a starting role, but Brogdon is basically the most overqualified reserve in the NBA.
Brogdon averaged 14.9 points and 3.7 assists on blistering .484/.444/.870 splits last season. He's not the "traditional point guard" Boston fans clamor for, but he's a highly competent ball-handler who doesn't force the issue or rack up turnovers. He's absolute money when surrounded by other playmakers, which allows him to set up shop behind the 3-point line and attack rotating defenses. Brogdon has one of the most bankable long-range shots in the NBA and a prolific floater game to counter overzealous closeouts.
Frankly, simple offensive and defensive balance favors Brogdon over Horford in the starting five. The Celtics have been fond of the two-big look in the past, but Porzingis is less switchable than Horford or Robert Williams. Plus, last season Derrick White spent ample time next to Smart in the backcourt to great effect.
Brogdon and White can handle enough of the table-setting duties to keep Tatum and Brown focused on their individual strengths. Plus, smaller lineups tend to lead to more favorable matchups for Boston's star wings. The Celtics could struggle to find adequate minutes for Horford and Williams if both come off the bench, but that's the sacrifice teams with absurd depth have to make.
No. 1 player who could break into Celtics starting five: Robert Williams
The 2022-23 season didn't treat Robert Williams very well, to be frank. He only managed 35 games (20 starts) after dealing with a torn meniscus. After making the All-Defensive team the season before, he was shelved in the second unit once the playoffs started and he frequently felt like an afterthought in Mazzulla's game plan.
Now, the Celtics have essentially traded for his replacement. Porzingis is a talented rim protector meant to anchor the defense in Boston. On offense, he's a gifted 3-point shooter who is far less limited than the paint-bound Williams. One could not be blamed for reading the Celtics' summer as a statement of complete disregard for the 25-year-old Williams.
That should not be the case, however. Williams is a tier-one athlete who can still impact the game defensively next to other centers. Porzingis doesn't offer the same defensive flexibility as Horford — the 7-foot-3 Latvian will primarily operate in drop coverage — but Williams is a nimble defender on the perimeter. He can roam off of non-shooters in the corner and still impact the game as a help-side rim protector while Porzingis anchors the paint. Opposing offenses would struggle to find lanes to the rim.
On the other end, Porzingis should spend very little time in the post. He's a terrible post-up scorer but a dominant 3-point threat. His deep range stretches defenses in completely unique ways. Meanwhile, Williams is a deadly vertical threat with a wide catch radius on lobs around the rim. Giving Boston's ball-handlers the option to either kick it to Porzingis behind the 3-point line or toss it up to Williams in the dunker's spot could pay dividends.
Williams was a borderline top-50 talent not that long ago. When healthy, he's a truly elite defensive force who can change the calculus of opposing game plans with his length and explosiveness. He's a defensive playmaker and a hyper-efficient rim finisher on offense. There's a world in which he's simply too impactful to keep with the second unit, even if it's not the cleanest fit on paper.