The Atlanta Braves' top offseason priority will be addressing the pitching front. Spencer Strider will receive Cy Young votes and Max Fried should be back to full strength next season, but another extended absence for Kyle Wright, combined with the notable decline of Charlie Morton, makes pitching a definite area of need.
It's a critical offseason for the Braves, who finished last season with a league-best 104 wins, only to lose the NLDS unceremoniously in four games — to their second-place division rivals, no less. The primary culprit for their disappointing finish was a sudden offensive cold spell, but pitching is the roster's glaring weak point. Maybe not weak, even, but certainly vulnerable.
Atlanta has shied away from long-term contracts in excess of $22 million annually, with their failed attempt to bring back Freddie Freeman standing as a notable exception. But, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Braves could be willing to go higher for the "right starting pitcher."
So, with such a high bar set, here are a few starting pitchers who could appeal to Alex Anthopoulos and the front office.
3. Sonny Gray
The Braves have been tied to Sonny Gray, who made his third All-Star appearance last season with the Minnesota Twins. He is expected to command a lucrative annual value on his contract, but at 34 years old, he won't demand the same contract length as other top-shelf free agent starters. That could appeal for the Braves, who are focused more on the present than the future.
Gray put up Cy Young-worthy numbers for Minnesota, posting a 2.79 ERA and 1.147 WHIP with 183 strikeouts and 55 walks in 32 starts. His 8-8 record doesn't do justice to how effective his stuff was for a postseason contender.
With Gray, he's not going to smoke batters with speed. His fastball velocity hovers around 92.9 (31st percentile, per Baseball Savant), but he also gave up the fewest home runs per nine innings in the MLB last season. He commands the zone with a balanced collection of breaking pitches and he subdues explosive offenses.
Atlanta already has a potent dose of speed atop their rotation with Strider. Add Gray to the mix with Fried, and the Braves would have excellent variety of approaches between their top aces. Gray is about to receive his second top-three finish in Cy Young voting. Maybe even his first victory. Atlanta is already the best team in baseball on paper. Gray makes the rich richer, all while presenting a potential middle-ground for the financially savvy Anthopoulos. He will cost a lot, but over a short(ish) period of time.
2. Blake Snell
Blake Snell should have an abundance of suitors in free agency. He led the MLB in ERA last season (2.25), the second such campaign in his career. He won the Cy Young award back in 2018 with the Tampa Bay Rays and he's about to finish near the top in 2023 with the San Diego Padres.
Unfortunately, Snell's individual efforts couldn't elevate the Padres to their desired level of contention last season. San Diego struggled to meet payroll demands, so cost-cutting is inevitable. It could start with letting Snell walk, and the Braves should eagerly place a call for the 30-year-old.
The book on Snell is pretty straightforward. He has a serious walk problem — his 13.3 walk percentage sat in the MLB's fourth percentile last season — but otherwise, the blemishes are few and far between. He packs solid 95.5 MPH heat on his fastball, his breaking pitches encourage batters to chase, and he strikes out 31.5 percent of his opponents (94th percentile).
The one-two punch of Strider and Snell at the top of the rotation would allow the Braves to make quick work of most opponents. Factor into a potential resurgent Fried, and it's hard to fathom a better 1-2-3 punch in the majors.
If the Braves can reassert their pitching dominance, on top of a historic offense, the rest of the league might be in trouble.
1. Aaron Nola
The Philadelphia Phillies have vowed to make Aaron Nola's return a priority, but it's clear the two sides are far apart. That could change in the weeks to come, but there's no reason to believe Nola is the Phillies' only option. Philadelphia could look for cheaper — or just plain different — options elsewhere on the market, starting with the two names mentioned previously.
Nola grew up in the south, as Rosenthal notes, so he could be attracted to the Braves for that reason. The St. Louis Cardinals have been widely projected as a landing spot for Nola, but Atlanta would present a much clearer path to contention. It could also represent a path to revenge against the Phillies, who are balking at his asking price after nine years of solid service.
On the surface, Nola doesn't have the same ace stats as Gray or Snell. His 4.46 ERA and 1.151 WHIP qualify as good, not exceptional. What makes Nola stand out is his durability and his consistency. He has the occasional bout with command issues, but he has made 32 starts in each of the last three seasons. He also has a hearty helping of high-level postseason experience, most of it positive, given the Phillies' recent success on the big stage.
Nola doesn't possess elite velocity on his fastball (92.9), but he gets batters to chase at a 34.7 percent clip, which places him in the MLB's 96th percentile. His curveball baits opponents into some wacky swings and when he's right, he can pitch deep into games without sacrificing walks or explosive hits.
The benefits here are twofold. The Braves add a great No. 2 starter to their staff and the Braves take a valuable weapon away from the Phillies, who currently stand as their primary obstacle in the National League.