The Philadelphia Phillies' offense has been a total machine this postseason. Nick Castellanos hit five home runs in a three-game span between the end of the NLDS and the start of the NLCS. Bryce Harper is one of the greatest postseason performers of his time. Trea Turner? Yeah, he's on fire too.
'Red October' is the common mantra in Philadelphia this time of year. The Phillies have the best home-field advantage in baseball and an expensive roster built for these moments. There isn't a more explosive offense left in the playoffs when the Phillies are firing on all cylinders.
In Thursday's Game 3 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks, however, the Phillies' offense went suddenly stagnant. The team mustered three total hits and one run, which Bryce Harper scored on a wild pitch. Not a single home run, not a single RBI.
It was probably a bit premature to adorn Philadelphia as undisputed World Series favorites, but a lot of folks were ready to count the Diamondbacks out after their 10-0 shellacking in Game 2. It has been generally ill-advised to count out Arizona all season, of course, and now the Phillies are one more icy night away from the danger zone.
These Philadelphia players in particular cannot afford to go cold right now.
3. Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber was massive in the NLCS last season. He opened the 2023 NLCS with three home runs in the first two games.
Schwarber is a unique figure stationed atop the Phillies' lineup. He will go through unbearable cold spells, but when he's getting the bat on the ball, a significant volume of those balls will soar over the fence. He slashed .197/.343/.474 during the regular season, but he hit 47 dingers and knocked home 104 runs. He led the MLB with 215 strikeouts, but he also amassed 126 walks.
When Schwarber strikes the fear of God into pitchers in the leadoff spot, it sets the tone for Philadelphia's offense and frequently lends the Phillies an early advantage. When he's not doing that, however, it can get dicey. The Phillies cannot afford for Schwarber to morph into a free out at the top of the lineup for this stretch run, however long it lasts.
Schwarber went 0-for-3 in the Game 3 loss. He managed a walk, but pitchers will attack Schwarber when he's not making contact. It's easy to bank on Schwarber with an energized crowd at his back in Citizens Bank Park, but it's fair to get concerned about his ability to sustain that success on the road.
The Phillies will hope Schwarber can regain Game 2 form in the battles to come. His bat is powerful enough to bring about a swift end to this series. It's also inconsistent enough to tank the Phillies' offense at the most inopportune moments.
2. Nick Castellanos
The Phillies' lineup exists in multiple sectors. There's the top-three gauntlet of Schwarber, Turner, and Harper. Then, the middle group of Alex Bohm, Bryson Stott, and J.T. Realmuto. The faults are few and far between with those groups. Where the Phillies have the potential to really hit a wall is the bottom of the lineup (shocking, I know).
Right now, it's hard to fault Brandon Marsh's performance in the eight spot. He has a hit in every game of the D-Backs series. In the nine spot, however, is rookie Johan Rojas. To put it bluntly, he's a walking sigh of relief for the opposing pitcher. Rojas seldom gets a hit, and when he does it's hardly more than a simple ground ball that squeaks through a crack in the infield.
The real centerpiece of the bottom-three, of course, is Nick Castellanos. There was a fan movement to move Casty into the cleanup spot after his miraculous NLDS performance, but Rob Thomson opted for consistency and kept Castellanos in the seven spot. It worked in Game 1 of the NLCS; Castellanos hit his fifth home run in a three-game span.
In the games since, however, the smoke has gradually lifted from Castallenos' bat. He went 0-for-2 with a walk in Game 2 before going 0-for-3 with three K's in Game 3. That simply won't do. The Phillies can survive a return to earth for Casty — he won't hit multiple homers every night, that was never sustainable — but he can't become a regular out. If Brandon Marsh is the anchor of the Phillies' later lineup, it could spell trouble.
1. Bryce Harper
Look, Bryce Harper doesn't go cold often. Especially not on this stage. He has been a paragon of consistency for the Phillies all postseason. Pitchers pitch around him. For the postseason, Harper is slashing .357/.539/.786 with four home runs, seven RBIs, only six strikeouts, and 11 walks. That is comical.
Thursday's loss to Arizona, however, marked Harper's first game without a hit since Game 2 of the wild card series against Miami. The Diamondbacks purposefully gave him very little to hit (he was walked twice) and Harper still managed to score the Phillies' only run, but it was a quiet game relative to his extremely high standards.
It should go without saying that the Phillies cannot afford even a mediocre stretch from Harper. He is the lifeblood of Philadelphia's offense, the ringleader in the locker room, and the foundation upon which the team's World Series aspirations are built. If Harper gets caught in a funk, it's time to start asking which team will bring the World Series trophy back to Texas.
Harper is, despite it often appearing otherwise, a mortal man. He's fallible just like every other player, and there's a chance the Diamondbacks can finally force him out of rhythm. That would be a particularly difficult blow to Philadelphia's competitive chances. On the other hand, there's an even stronger chance Harper bounces back with a multi-hit Game 4 effort and places Philly on the doorstep of another World Series round.