Will the Chicago Cubs be buyers or sellers? That much isn't so clear, as Jed Hoyer suggested the team isn't a position to trade away young assets.
While the Cubs won on Wednesday night, they remain four games under the .500 mark. Should they not dramatically improve before the deadline, it'll be tough to justify being buyers to the front office.
Yes, the NL Central is one of the worst divisions in baseball. David Ross admitted as much just a few short days ago:
"Thank goodness for the s—-y play of everybody in the division," Ross said.
That's all fine and good, but when Jed Hoyer and Carter Hawkins decide upon their trade deadline plans, longevity will be key. Making the postseason in a bad division and all but ensuring a first-round exit isn't a good business strategy, especially when it involves trading top prospects away.
"It's a real factor in every season, right? Whether you're looking for reinforcements, whether it's a year where you're selling, every team has it. You want to act with conviction when you get there — either direction. Like I've said all along, I want nothing more than to be on the (buy) side of the transaction," Hoyer said, per The Athletic.
The alternative to buying is to trade off assets on an expiring contract, and refurbishing the farm system in return. But is that feasible in Chicago?
Cubs who won't survive the trade deadline: Marcus Stroman
Marcus Stroman has a player option after this season, and if he continues to pitch at this rate, he'll exercise that and become a free agent. Stroman is arguably having the best year of his career, or at the very least dating back to his rookie campaign in Toronto. Signed to a three-year, $71 million deal currently, he can assuredly receive more money on the free-agent market this winter.
FanSided's Kevin Henry made the argument that Stroman could be a good fit on several contenders, specifically the Rays, Blue Jays or even Arizona Diamondbacks. Arizona, with one of the better farm systems in the majors, could be an attractive trade destination from the Cubs perspective as well:
"Somewhat surprising contenders although many of us saw this coming, the Diamondbacks are one of the few teams in baseball right now with a desperate need for a starting pitcher. It doesn't even have to be of Stroman's caliber. Beyond Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, there isn't much in the rotation. Stroman is the kind of piece they should look to acquire as long as the Cubs play fairly and acknowledge he might be just a rental."
Trading Stroman does come with some risk in Chicago. First, the rotation is far from a strength as is, despite the play of Justin Steele. If they trade a player like Stroman, the Cubs better have a backup plan this winter.
Cubs who won't survive the trade deadline: Trey Mancini
The Cubs signed Trey Mancini this offseason as a Swiss-army knife of sorts. Mancini can play multiple positions, including corner outfield and first base, but struggled at the plate last season after he was traded to the Houston Astros.
Mancini hopes to revive his career on Chicago's north side, which he has done and then some. In 41 games played, Mancini is slashing .257/.329/.353 with a .682 OPS. On a contender, Mancini would offer the kind of roster flexibility necessary to be a key bench piece, or perhaps a starter.
Still, the Cubs don't really need Trey Mancini. Matt Mervis can play first base, and Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ take up the corner outfield spots. Mervix in particular is an exciting young player the fanbase would prefer receive more playing time. If Chicago falls out of contention altogether, expect David Ross to give in to that pressure.
Kevin Henry floated the Los Angeles Angels as a possible trade destination:
"Everyone without a rooting interest in the Angels is hoping to see them fall only for talks of Shohei Ohtani trade rumors later this summer. Until then, they're in buy mode. Mancini wouldn't be such a bad purchase for a team with no clear answer at first base.
This year's Angels have used Brandon Drury, Gio Urshela, and Jake Lamb most frequently at the position."
If the Angels are serious about contending in what could be Ohtani's final season with the franchise, trading for Mancini makes a lot of sense.
Cubs who won't survive the trade deadline: Cody Bellinger
Cody Bellinger, who is currently on the injured list, has a mutual option in his contract for next season. This means both sides of the equation must agree on another year for Bellinger in Chicago, which is looking less likely than ever thanks to his hot start to the season. Bellinger is slashing .271/.337/.493 with an .830 OPS.
Assuming Chicago is unable to negotiate an extension with Bellinger prior to the deadline, their outfield is rather crowded. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Kevin Alcantara and Brennen Davis are all nearing the MLB level. Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki man the corners and are both on long-term deals. Bellinger, who receives plenty of at-bats, could be the odd man out if a team is willing to offer an overwhelming trade package.
Bellinger is a former league MVP and may have finally found his stroke again. From 2021 to 2022, Bellinger mustered only a .193/.256/.355 line. He was dreadful, and eventually kicked to the curb by the Dodgers.
"It wasn't terrible. It wasn't bad at all. I think that … obviously, it didn't end how anyone really expected it to end, but that's life," Bellinger said of his LA exit.
Now on a relatively affordable contract, Bellinger would be a solid rental for most contenders. Should he continue to hit at this pace, he would be wise to test the free-agent market again this winter, which is why the Cubs ought to consider moving him while they can get something back in return.