The Houston Astros' season ended on a low note with two straight home losses to their cross-state rivals, the Texas Rangers. Now, the reigning champs in Houston will reign for only a short while longer. Then, a long and difficult path back to the mountaintop awaits.
It's not difficult to establish the first order of business for Houston's front office. Dusty Baker is retiring after a historic career, which culminated with the Astros' World Series victory in 2022. Baker is obviously an integral part of the organization, beloved both inside and outside the locker room.
It will be borderline impossible to find a coach with Baker's credibility, but the Astros will have to find an adept mind who can get the most out of an explosive roster. The core pieces are still in place, at least through next season. Yordan Alvarez has earned Big Papi comparisons. Jose Altuve is as clutch as it gets. Alex Bregman. Kyle Tucker. Justin Verlander. Framber Valdez. The star power is undeniable.
Still, in addition to a new strategic mind at the helm, Houston will have to make a few tough decisions in free agency. Here are the players who won't be back — and a couple who are destined to stick around.
Phil Maton will leave the Astros for a better contract
The Astros need help in the bullpen and there's reason to believe the team would have interest in bringing a solid arm like Phil Maton back. On the other hand, it projects to be a lucrative free agency period for relievers, so Maton will have a long line of suitors.
Houston should probably prioritize upgrades instead of rehashing the same group. Plus, there's a noticeable lack of lefties in the bullpen. The team would sacrifice Maton with a goal to better balance the rotation with more variety.
Maton thrives in the arena of soft contact, as FanSided's Drew Koch points out. He's a great pitcher for a great defense. A team with a rock-solid infield would be wise to come knocking.
For the season, Maton put together a respectable 3.00 ERA and 1.121 WHIP. He appeared in 68 games (66.0 innings pitched), giving up 49 hits, 25 walks, and 27 runs with 74 strikeouts.
Organizational favorite Martin Maldonado will re-sign with Astros
Martin Maldonado's season with the Astros was extremely up and down (mostly down). He slashed .191/.258/.348 with 15 home runs and 36 RBIs in 362 at-bats. He was essentially a free out in the postseason when teams can ill-afford even marginal disadvantages.
Still, Maldonado's reputation in the clubhouse remains virtually uncontested. It's clear Yanier Diaz is the future at catcher for Houston, but Maldonado has an unbreakable rapport with his pitchers and the coaching staff. There's a chance Baker's retirement changes the dynamic slightly, but Maldy is a well-documented baseball genius behind the plate. His prowess in calling games and directing traffic should endear him to any manager.
With such prominent struggles at the plate, Maldy is aggressively approaching platoon or even plain backup status. The Astros probably won't face a robust market for his services and no team will possess the same attachment to the intangibles Maldonado brings to the field. That being the case, it's wise to bet on a return.
Last season, Dusty Baker referred to Maldonado as a battle-hardened war vet, with Diaz attending "West Point." One could view an investment in Maldonado as a sustained investment in Diaz. Even if the starting job changes hands, Maldy can provide Diaz with support in the locker room and in practice. He has 13 years of MLB experience to share with the young catcher.
Ryne Stanek will leave the Astros due to heavy free agent interest
Again, the free-agent market for relievers is expected to gain significant steam in the months to come. Ryne Stanek put together a respectable campaign for the Astros — 4.09 ERA and 1.243 WHIP in 50.2 innings pitched — but the righty is due for a change of scenery as Houston rebuilds the periphery of its pitching staff.
Stanek packs serious zip on his fastball. His 98.2 MPH average speed ranks in the MLB's 96th percentile, per Baseball Savant. Unfortunately, that comes with a lot of hard hits. His off-speed pitches are solid, but he lost command from time to time in 2023. He's not far removed from a dominant World Series-winning campaign in 2022, in which Stanek's ERA plummeted to 1.15, but the 32-year-old has a bad habit of inconsistency.
Still, the hope of a return to peak form could (and will) be enough to draw eyeballs, and there is natural upside tied to such gnarly velocity. The Astros wouldn't be making a mistake to bring Stanek back, but he feels like a potential casualty of the market. Houston will want to change the dynamics in the bullpen after this uneven postseason run. Stanek, meanwhile, is a career journeyman who knows a thing or two about skipping town.
The Astros should prioritize southpaws and stability in the bullpen this offseason, with maybe one more reliable starter to sure things up. Stanek doesn't fit the bill. He therefore feels like a strong candidate to leave, despite the mutual respect between player and franchise for that magical 2022 World Series run.
Hector Neris will exercise his player option to stay with Astros
Hector Neris has a player option worth $8.5 million for the 2024 season. Despite the burgeoning market for talented relievers, it's difficult to imagine him beating that deal in terms of annual value. Factor in the prime opportunity to compete for a title with Houston, and it seems logical to project Neris' return for at least one more year with the franchise.
The 34-year-old is coming off a dominant campaign on the mound. He posted a 1.71 ERA and 1.054 WHIP, striking out 77 batters and only allowing 13 earned runs in 68.1 innings of action. He consistently paints the corners with a nasty collection of breaking balls and he's great at keeping the ball off the barrel of the opponent's bat and in play for his defense.
The Astros need to overhaul the bullpen in a major way, but Neris is one of the few whose track record is undeniable. He's coming off the best season of his career, but he was a relied-upon arm during the Astros' 2022 World Series run and a bullpen staple for the Philadelphia Phillies for just short of a decade before that.
He's certainly not the flashiest name Houston faces a potential decision about, but even if Neris decides to test the free agency waters, Houston should make a strong push to keep him around. He's a valuable cog in the pitching machine.
Michael Brantley will depart Astros after disappointing, injury-riddled season
The Astros signed Michael Brantley to a one-year contract worth $12 million before the season. The expectation was that, after missing over half the 2022 season due to injury, Brantley could return to the All-Star form he displayed in 2021. Alas, Houston was gravely disappointed. Injuries once again struck, limiting Brantley to 15 regular season games and 57 plate appearances.
Left field has been relentlessly highlighted as a potential area of improvement for the Astros. With Brantley's health being so unreliable, there's simply no reason for the front office to spend top dollar on the 36-year-old. Brantley has a robust résumé and a history of postseason success, but he's simply not worthy of another Astros investment at this stage of his career.
Instead, Brantley will have to pitch his short-term upside to prospective employers elsewhere in the league. We have seen several contenders benefit from one-year reclamation projects in the past (Cody Bellinger, anyone?), so perhaps Brantley can latch on with an optimistic front office and a manager that's willing to empower him once he's healthy. That said, it's not exactly the smartest bet.
Whether Houston simply explores rotation-level outfielders, or a legitimate star investment in left field (... Cody Bellinger, anyone?), the writing is on the wall for Brantley. The injuries aren't his fault and it has been an unfortunate stain on an otherwise impressive career, but his time with Houston is done.