It's time for the New England Patriots to move in a new direction. They are 2-8 to start the 2023 NFL season and well and truly out of any sort of feasible playoff contention. After putting up a meager six points against the Indianapolis Colts, the questions surrounding Bill Belichick, Mac Jones, and the entire Patriots organization are about to reach a boiling point. For the first time in decades, there are real concerns about the Hooded One's future in Foxboro, whereas Jones' future seems to be a topic of the past.
What put the Patriots in this hole in the first place? Part of it was Tom Brady's departure to Tampa Bay, but the Pats had to be preparing for the inevitability of the GOAT either hanging up the spikes or taking his business somewhere warmer. That is to say, the real issue is they prepared poorly for his exit. More specifically, they drafted poorly.
See, as brilliant of a head coach as Bill Belichick is, Bill Belichick the GM is his worst enemy. The Patriots haven't been the same at making the right personnel decisions, minus a few big hits in specific niches, since Belichick's falling out with Scott Pioli.
Regardless of who is making the picks in Foxboro next year, let's take an early look at how the draft could shake out, using the mock simulator provided by Pro Football Network without the benefit of trades.
Under Bill Belichick, the New England Patriots have mostly tried to skimp out on the wide receiver position on draft day, going for a darts-at-the-board volume approach instead of focusing on high-end quality. There's a way to do that, but the profiles the Patriots have often targeted are very specific, boom-or-bust, and lack enough agility to make an impact at the next level. If you want to bring in a truly game-changing wideout, NFL teams are starting to realize you have to burn a top-15 pick to get someone who can compete at something approaching an MVP or franchise-changing level.
The Patriots need to spend their first-round pick on a quarterback or a wide receiver. If they feel like they can wait for their guy at QB later, then there is nothing wrong with taking a lower-risk flier on an elite receiver prospect before feeling out the draft and either trading up into the late first or using their early second-round pick on the right signal-caller.
It's hard to go wrong with Keon Coleman in the first round of the draft. The Florida State standout is one of the very best receiver prospects in this draft. He checks off a lot of key boxes as a receiver. Coleman has great hands, he's strong at the catch point, he has the agility to win the intermediate routes, and he is a prototypical athlete as an outside receiver, in the sense that he can win at all levels. Coleman is a real threat with the ball in his hands, and you can see why some fans are giving him Dez Bryant comparisons. That's the kind of profile of receiver the Patriots have been dying to have basically since Randy Moss called Gillette Stadium his home.
Is drafting a Michigan quarterback too on the nose? The New England Patriots won't be able to wait several rounds to draft J.J. McCarthy in 2024, and it's highly unlikely they would see him drop into their laps in the second round. Going for a wide receiver and waiting on a quarterback paid off in this case, with New England landing one of the top quarterback prospects in the draft on Day 2.
Maybe it is better to secure a top player at another position, especially one that directly helps a new quarterback because McCarthy isn't a slam-dunk prospect. Truthfully, very few quarterbacks are. But McCarthy has the raw tools. He has the arm strength to zip throws into tight windows and challenge defenses downfield at a high level, which is something Mac Jones hasn't been able to do. Jones is a limited quarterback when it comes to his actual arm talent, and those quarterbacks actually are riskier when drafting because their upside is so limited. They can only be one profile of QB, whereas someone like McCarthy has the arm talent to have a shot if he can translate his reading of the game
A good coach can make or break a quarterback prospect like McCarthy, and you can look within the AFC East to see a positive example of drastic quarterback development from a young player in Josh Allen's rise to being an MVP-caliber passer for the Buffalo Bills. McCarthy's feel for the game in the pocket could use work, but he has the moxy, agility, and arm talent to be worth taking a flier on. The Patriots have to get someone, and McCarthy has the leadership skills and tools to be the answer. But because he's so questionable when under physical distress from the pass rush, waiting until after No. 4 might be the best policy for the franchise.
No matter who the Patriots draft at quarterback, that passer is going to need more than one talented wide receiver to work with. The Pats' current crop of pass-catchers is honestly underwhelming. Adonai Mitchell of Texas is a strong pick in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft and someone who could potentially come in and contribute immediately.
Mitchell's stock is quickly rising with each clutch reception. He is a game-changer who wins matchups for the Longhorns, making highlight-reel grabs to turn incompletions into touchdowns. Mitchell has a fire in him, like McCarthy, and that's something the Patriots could use as they look to get back to the Patriot Way of winning. Not many receivers have better hands in this draft class than Mitchell, who could even play the "big slot" role at times for New England if they want to mix things up in sets with four receivers.
Sticking with one of the most prestigious collegiate programs in the country, T'Vondre Sweat would be a nice pick-up in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft for the Patriots to beef up their defensive line. Adding some more pass-rushing dynamism off the edge should be the main priority for New England defensively, but their quality at defensive tackle also doesn't seem to be up to par, especially with offensive line-eating or pocket-collapsing DTs being increasingly important to an effective pass-rush in the modern NFL.
Sweat is a big man in the middle at 6-foot-4, 362 pounds, and that kind of imposing size can open up a lot of opportunities for the edge defenders. He has the size and strength to be a real force for offensive linemen to try and move around in the run game, but he also has the raw tools and explosiveness to make life miserable for a quarterback. Sweat is far from the finished product, but that's why he's a fourth-round pick. At this point in the draft, Sweat might be the best defensive tackle the Patriots can snag, and he's worth taking a flier on. Honestly, he has the tools to contribute on Day 1, which is above what a team expects from a fourth-rounder.
Now the Patriots address their situation off the edge with another player from a touted collegiate program in Utah. Jonah Eliss is a sack machine for the Utes. He has 12 sacks and 16 tackles for loss in 10 games as one of the most productive pass rushers in the conference. Eliss is one of the most underrated players at his position in the upcoming draft class and is the kind of relentless, violent, high-motor, and all-around workhorse edge defender the Patriots fall in love with. They need to do a better job of drafting off the edge, but with so much focus on the passing game, they are going to have to hope that they can get undervalued talent later in the draft in guys like Eliss.
Back-to-back edge defenders for the Pats, because New England simply cannot afford to wait around any longer to address this all-important position in the modern NFL. Tyler Baron hails from Tennessee and is another guy having a phenomenal season at the collegiate level. Like Eliss, Baron is another edge defender who could get more buzz as the draft draws nearer and fans start paying closer attention to the players not getting as much hype.
Baron is a fan favorite in Tennessee who consistently disrupts opposing passing games with pressure, proving to be too much for offensive linemen to handle as an athlete. He is frequently held on plays, which is why his five sacks don't tell the whole story regarding his pass-rushing production.
Clemson's Tyler Davis could be a great value pick for the New England Patriots in the sixth round, so while adding an off-ball linebacker or cornerback depth could be seen as a bigger need at this point in the draft, there is nothing wrong with doubling up on defensive tackles, especially if the team feels that a specific DT is the best player available at that point.
Again, defensive tackle is a key area in the team that the Pats must address in 2024. Davis is a consistent force for the Tiger and one of the best defensive tackles in the ACC. He could legitimately play a role for the Patriots in 2024 despite being a late Day 3 pick, which would represent tremendous value here. Davis is a good anchoring point at the position as opposed to being a pass rusher, but that could make him a nifty role player with upside to become more present on all three downs.
Finally back to the Michigan Wolverines with some cornerback help. With the way CB depth can get stretched in the NFL these days, you can never have too many corners on draft day. The Patriots have to wait until their last pick in the draft to snag one, but Sainistril does have a shot at making the roster, which is honestly all teams want from their seventh-round pick to start with.
Sainistril is an intelligent player at the catch point who can go toe-to-toe with top collegiate receivers in man coverage. His athletic profile makes it questionable if he can be even a CB2 at the NFL level, but he has a fighting chance because of how great he is at reading receivers and anticipating that last move at the top of the stem, which is the real key at the next level. Sainristil would therefore be a very strong pick-up for New England in round seven. He's probably so good at understanding how to cover receivers because he was one. Don't underestimate that added value because, for example, that helped Richard Sherman greatly in translating to an NFL CB.